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Saturday 28 September 2019

Update: Just Thinkin’ just needs to be ridden conservatively and go for the doctor on the turn, to get that winning break. Ready to win. If you knew Rhaegar was going to do that you would have been on Shadow Hero!  + 2.8 units for the day and it was a tricky day so happy with that. Back tomorrow morning by 9 a.m.

Update: Bivouac is ready to win and should. Tough bugger eh! Top ride.

Three head to heads that look worth taking. $10 multi returns $64.90

New Plymouth Race 5 Battle Time $1.90 v Polly Grey beaten by a nose

New Plymouth Race 6 Where are You $1.80 to beat Grinner. yes

Ellerslie Race 6 Flying Fantasia $1.90  to beat Lucetta yes 

 

 

Update: Ryan’s multi from Heads Up is Battle Time, Bivouac, Just Thinkin’ all to win to return $495. Good luck.

Good morning,

The two Quality bets are at Rosehill and will be updated 2 minutes before the race. An update will be posted by noon.

Ryan L won the $20 multi from heads up and I’ll post his bet by noon as well.

Bet of the day Rosehill Race 7 2.Bivouac $2.50 FF ( Quality bet updated 2 minutes out)

Value bet of the day New Plymouth Race 4 7.Tellyawhat $6 FF

Speed map Special Rosehill Race 8 1.Just Thinkin’ $3.40 FF ( Quality bet updated 2 minutes out)

Sneaky of the day Ellerslie Race 6 6.Flying Fantasia $6.50 FF

The GOAT’s two best sports bets are: Roosters -.4.5 $1.90 played at 9.50 p.m. tonight yes

Richmond in the AFL final-17.5 $1.85 played today at 4.30 p.m. yes easily

Heads Up can be heard here

Update: Two quality bets now in Australia.

Just the one Quality bet so far.

Rosehill Saturday

Race 7 6.05 p.m.

Confidence: 4/5 Quality bet

2.Bivouac is a classy horse. He showed that winning fresh up in very good time running Group 1 sectionals. Then he didn’t have the same ping on a wet track. But he bounced back last start on a better track, relaxing well outside the leader and showed that same turn of foot when balanced and was strong through the line and should have no trouble with the 1400m. He maps to get outside obvious leader Yao Dash and I can’t see them going fast enough to allow the ones behind them to beat him. I’m sure Hugh will wait till about the 200m before asking him for that kick of his and he should be too fast and too strong for these. RP $1.60, $2.60 FF value Staking plan says 4.9 units at 2.60 FF Returns 12.74 units

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

1.Just Thinkin’ has been impressive leading all the way in his last two wins. He’s been gelded since his last campaign and is a stronger more focused horse. He maps to get an uncontested lead again and the step to 1800m is ideal third up. he should be able to kick on the turn and be very, very hard to run down in a bit of a sprint home. RP $1.90, $3.20 FF Value Staking plan says 5 units at $3.20 FF returns 16 units

Dangers:

2.Shadow Hero is a dour type who needs a good tempo and 2000m to back with confidence. He is likely to be 7th or 8th at best, so in a sprint home, he is going to have trouble running down Just Thinkin’ with his galloping action and type of horse he is. He looks better suited next up over more ground where he is being aimed at.

Ellerslie

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5 in an even race.

3.Youwantmore had no chance last start when caught wide but rates on top after weight adjustments and should get a soft time in the lead or near it. RP $7,  $12 FF

Dangers:

2.Pacorus  looks the main danger with the light weight.

Race 2

Another open race.

6.Avadane is a nice filly suited to 1300m and drawn to get a good run with Leith Innes up. RP $4.00, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

7.London Bound is the hype horse after her impressive win on debut. A wet track tripped her up at Otaki and she cops it again and is favourite from a wide draw with Craig Grylls up who is not riding with great judgement lately.

Race 3

Another race favouring the bookies.

2.Ronchi if caught in the right mood could easily win this. RP $5, $5.50 Ff

5.Lupelani has the early money plonked on but best form is on very heavy tracks.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

14.Early Morning Rise  looks to have ability based on her first campaign runs and trialled up well recently. Danielle Johnson is riding well too. RP $4.00

Dangers:

12.Amusez Moi won his last trial looking good but only beat three others home. Trained by Tiley so will be ready but $4.20 is too short. We have seen may punters get sucked in to backing debut runners off impressive trials results and get burnt- he is likely to be another one.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

1.Justacanta gets 4kgs off and is rock hard fit, which could combine to win this. RP $5, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Bit Lippy  closed off nicely fresh up. Can come with the last run at these.

9.Molte Veloce  is ready to fire fresh up.

7.So Much Mour  won well last start and could upset these.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

6.Flying Fantasia  won very impressively here in June on a heavy 10 running better times and sectionals than the Open handicap. She didn’t handle the sticky going at Tauranga then after a freshen up ran a good improver’s race here for 5th over 1600m. Back in class here and Sam Spratt replaces the apprentice, so in an average R72 field, she looks well placed to win again. RP $4, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

4.Maestro Blu  had his chance last start and ran a fair third here. Been backed in early but $3.80 is too short.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

11.Codecracker  won well here last start and 54kgs helps up in class. Always tried hard. RP $4.50, $5 in from $6.50 FF

Dangers:

4.Obsessive  is a good horse. Goes well fresh and despite giving weight, looks the one. RP $4.00, $3.60 FF

6.Cossack Warrior  fresh up should be right in it.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

13.Quizzy Lizzy has shown the ability to win another couple of races. The step to 1400m looks ideal and if the inside is off, she can get over these late. RP $6

Dangers:

11.My Superior Girl looked good winning last start. Up in class though so needs a good ride.

New Plymouth

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

2.Desert Magic  has natural good speed and from the good draw, should land on the pace and be hard to run down. RP $4.50, $5.50

Dangers:

9.Good Luck Charm  looked good leading all the way on debut but this is harder in a mad dash.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

3.Akerra is a smart mare who will be even better this campaign. Gets 3kgs off and looks the one to beat. RP $3.00, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

10.Total Sass  was very impressive on debut bolting in here. Gets 3kgs off and Chelsea Burden is riding well.

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

4.Secret Allure drawn wide but if they go hard, can get up as she has a class edge. RP $4.50

Dangers:

5.Sweepstake  gets 4kgs off and will be ready fresh up.

11.La bella Rosa drawn to get a good run.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

7.Tellyawhat won impressively at Te Rapa off a good tempo. Didn’t back up 7 days later. ran second to Railway Winner Santa Monica here at this meeting last year. RP $4.00

Dangers:

2.Collinstreet fresh up with 3kgs off, should get him into this.

1.Secret Squirrel  is suspect at a solidly run 1400m with 58.5 kgs.

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

2.Battle Time looks very well placed to lead all the way here. The drop back to 1400m is ideal as 1600m was too far for him last Sunday. He rates 3 lengths clear of these after weight adjustments with the 3kgs of Chelsea Burden coming off. He should lead or share a moderate tempo and looks too good for these. RP $2.50, $3.30 but may be deductions if Tellyawhat comes out.

Dangers:

3.Lilly Thunder will be fitter for that fresh up fourth at Ellerslie. She has won second up twice.

4.Polly Grey  has won 4 from 8 this campaign. Likely to settle a few lengths off the leaders in a bit of a sprint home, so a placing looks her best chance.

7.Platinum Valos  is likely to share a soft tempo with Battle Time and in a sprint home, can hold on for third or fourth

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

8.Where Are You ran a game second in this last year so the distance is no concern. Has been racing like she needs the distance now and weighted nicely. RP $5, $8.50 Ff

Dangers:

3.Bee Tee Junior is topweight for a reason. He rates 4 lengths better than these on the flat over two miles on the flat. Drawn wide with a big weight which is no help, but with a good ride, can win.

5.Hurry Cane should relish the two miles and likely to do little work in running.

10.Alfee Dee is a tough staying type and on 54kgs, can get into a place.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

11.Floral Art  is a nice horse on a winning weight. Has to be the one to beat. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

8.Beckidboo  with 3kgs off looks the main danger.

4.Whatsup  should be suited to 1800m now.

 Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

6.Penelope Cruise  is looking for more ground now and gets in on 55kgs, less than the full allowance, but looks ready to strike again in the right race. Rp $4, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Junior  looked well and won well last start. Up in class but tough and rock hard fit now.

13.Bubble Gum won well here under a ride. 3yo filly against tough older horses though this time.

8.Mizzena ran a strong second here two starts back and forget her last run when hampered at the wrong time.

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!