There are three Quality bets below with two very good value bets at the dogs and one at Caulfield. I’ll post an update by noon.
A small profit from yesterday after Bivouac was just too good in the Golden Rose. The GOAT nailed his two sports bets in the NRL and AFL for a nice multi. I’m not interested in Te Aroha with the jumps races and slow 9 track. The only one worth looking at is Parisan in the last but he has drawn near the inner and jumps from 1200m to 1600m, so $1.80 is hard to take. Yes, I know the Quality bets are few and far between, but it is a very tricky time of the year and I’m just waiting for the better tracks here where we can find runners ready and well placed on decent surfaces. Then we will be having a few more bets.
Bet of the day Caulfield Race 7 8.Homesman $2.50 FF 2nd after putting in a big effort from 3w with cover.
Value bet of the day Manukau Dogs Race 1 8.Sleek Mover $7.50 FF Missed
Race 1 1.36 p.m.
Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet
8.Sleek Mover on debut here began evenly and was in front of race rival Noise maker when he got his legs clipped from behind going into the first bend and lost 4 lengths but recovered well to run third taking ground off Noise Maker late. Noise maker has drawn box 7 and tends to veer down sharply early so is likely to cause interference on his inside and with Sleek Mover drawn 8, he can take full advantage of that and drive to the lead around that first bend and be hard to run. He’s very good value at $7.50 the way this race maps out. RP $3.50 ( 4.3 units for the Value Staking Plan at $7.50 FF
Race 4 2.29 p.m.
Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet
1.Digger Ace 3rd looks well placed from the inside box. On debut here two starts back he began well and led 3 wide into the first bend and the two dogs underneath him, including the smart dog Captain Kev, took over but he drove back strongly for second in nice time. Then last start he drew box 8, began well but so did a few others and he had no chance to cross and finished back. This time, from box 1, he looks well placed to lead as the 2 and 3 dogs tend to veer out and are slower away. He looks good value here at $5.50 FF RP $3.00, ( 3.6 units at $5.50 with the value staking plan.)
Race 7 7 p.m.
Confidence: 4/5 Quality bet
8.Homesman could not have been more impressive winning easing down at The Valley fresh up. He drew wide, worked forward to a trailing position, led after turning and eased down to win in a good speed rating. he ran 2nd in this race last year and went on to win this in very good time last year. he looks even better this campaign so from the draw, he has the early natural speed to slide over 2nd outer and from there, he just looks too good for these. RP $1.60, $2.50 FF (4.7 units at $2.50 FF )