Home » Selections » October 2 2019 Wednesday preview below

October 2 2019 Wednesday preview below

Update 11.02:

Leith Innes to win the Jockey Challenge at $1.57 looks a good multi maker. I have him on 15 points and can’t see anyone else getting near ten points.

Suggested early quaddie for $16 for 100%

R1   4, 6
R2    3, 11
R3    7
R4     2, 8, 9, 13

Late quaddie for $32 for 50%

R4    2, 8, 9, 13
R5    1, 2, 3, 8
R6    2, 4, 11, 12
R7    4

Saver for $13

R4   2, 8, 9, 13
R5    1, 2, 3, 8
R6    2, 4, 11, 12
R7    7

Head to heads recommended:

Race 2 Lake Superior $2.10 Yes  to beat Touch The Clouds ( Lake Superior rates better on a Dead track and will get a better run )

Race 2 Cassio is a good lay at around $4 or less – had many chances and a wetter track suits. Yes

Race 3 Silver Lake $1.70 to beat Ferindi who is still learning against a nice horse dropping in class who should get a better run. No

Race 4 Let’s Do This $1.90 to beat Keep The Cash who has had many chances against a Tiley runner who will get a better run and has blinkers going on. No

Race 5 Not Usual Dream $1.85 to beat Etch who will get back with NUD getting a softish lead.

Race 7 Annie Okay $1.70 should beat Mumms Jewel who will have to do more work

Good morning,

Isn’t it great to see the sun shining and a Dead 4 posted  at Ruakaka. Because of that I’ve previewed every runner there along with speed maps. Riding The Waves is a horse many of us are looking forward to seeing in the last race. Based on how he looked in his trial and how trainer Nigel Tiley has got him to drop his head, he looks set to have a great campaign.

There is one Quality bet so far today at the Wanganui greyhounds. There will be an update posted by noon with any head to heads or other bets. Plus I’ll be reviewing each race here on this page, along with a full sectional breakdown, as there will be some nice horses to follow out of it.

I’ll also post an early preview of the Livamol by 6 p.m. tonight to see if I can find any value. The TAB are very likely to open a market without Melody Belle which will make it more interesting from a punting point of view.

 

Quality bet is Race 5 1.Opawa Tai at $3.30 FF, Rated price $1.90 so 5 units at $3.30 using the Value Staking Plan.

Multi of the day is Opawa Tai $3.30 into Ruakaka Race 7 Riding The Waves $1.95 returning $64.30 for every $10.

Bet of the day at Ruakaka race 7 4.Riding The Wave $1.95 FF

Value bet of the day Ruakaka race 2 3.Lake Superior $9 FF 1st $5.50 and won easily

Speed map Special Ruakaka race 3 7.Silver Lake $2.80 FF 2nd and beaten by a nose when winner broke the whip rule.

Best double figure runner is Race 6 2.Secret Runner $11 FF

Wanganui Dogs,

Race 5 1.41 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet. 2nd after getting its chance in front.

1.Opawa Tai  is ideally suited by the insid draw. She has the early speed to drive to the rail, which she likes to look for and the 2 and 3 dogs veer out, the 4 dog is slower away, 5 stays wide, 6 and 7 are slower and 8 has early speed but likes to stay away from the rail and is her first start here and over this distance and should struggle in the last 50 metres. He has the best time of these here in the last 90 days and hasn’t had good luck in her last two runs from awkward draws. RP $1.90, $3.30 FF

Ruakaka

Speed maps are courtesy of www.formproratings.co.nz

Race 1

The speed map shows Targhee likely to lead from the inner with a clean beginning.  But the jump will determine who leads etc. Map and tempo worked out as shown

Confidence: 1/5 in a small but tricky race to start with lining up the trials form. Good race to watch.

6.Targhee in her first trial led and fought well for a close 4th. Then in her last trial drew 4 of 4, was a distant second to the turn and closed off very nicely for second. Her action says a decent surface will suit better than that heavy 11 at her last trial too. Drawn 1 and with a good beginning is likely to try and hold the ;lead or trail and be the one to beat from there. RP $4.50

Dangers in order:

4.Play That Song 1st $3 and was a dominant winner  from the strong Nigel Tiley stable and drew widest of 5 in her trial and traveled ok to the 400 and wasn’t asked to go at any stage. Nice galloper  and can be in it with a good run.

5.Queen Of The Prom the full sister to the top mare Prom Queen, showed good early speed in her trial here to lead and cornered ok, and sustained a good gallop without being punched out – should have her stablemate, Eva James, covered with the better draw.

1.Eva James in her trial here showed good early speed but raced wide and ran about in the straight. Drawn out and her greenness is likely to make it hard for her to win.

3.Kash Queen  in her trial began ok and held the rail and wasn’t asked to go at any stage and looked to have a bit to offer. Drawn the widest here which always makes it hard especially with the Eva James drawn inside her who corners awkwardly.

Race 2

The speed map shows Fair Dream likely to get an uncontested lead with Lake Superior trailing and  Hosel Rocket 2nd outer with blinkers going on. Moderate tempo suiting runners in the first half of the race. Map worked out fairly well along – sectionals will confirm tempo later.

Confidence: 2/5 that Fair Dream can get an uncontested lead here and Lake Superior has the early speed to hold the trail and you can see why he has come in from  $11 to $9 FF. A race where you can both of these to make a profit.

3.Lake Superior 1st $5.50 Tri $533.60 and ridden well by Danielle Johnson after getting a perfect run. has run some good races against horses that have gone on to good form. E.g. Ran 2nd to Redcayanne on a Dead track and he won 3 more races – the third and fourth horses have since won. Ran 2nd here last November over 2100m to Lucetta in a good speed rating who is a nice galloper. Rated an FR of 100 when 4L tenth at Ellerslie in a $50k race over 2100m. He has had three runs back now and steps to a middle distance which suits. Drawn to get all favours which is what he needs to win a race after plenty of chances. Looks a definite chance with a good run in the trail likely. RP $5.50, $9 in from $11 so is good value.

Dangers in order:

11.Fair Dream on debut was hunted to the lead, set an even pace averaging 12.58 per 200m to the 600m, and fought on very well for third behind a nice horse in Luminous. He rated FR ( Formpro Rating) 95 which is very good in a maiden race. The time was quicker than the R65 race and he had three trials before then, so can only improve from that. Can get an uncontested lead and be hard to run down round here. RP  $3.50, $3.70 FF

10.Sweet Sereia 2nd $4.10 two starts back here over 1200m was 6th 3w cover and kept closing out wider and hit the line well late. Last start she was held up twice in the straight and lost her momentum. Gibbs and Bradley trained and didn’t go to the recent trials here, so she must be fit enough. Looks a staying type and drawn to get a good run.

9.Reflection 3rd $2    ran three good seconds in a row last Summer and is very fit now. Plugged on a bog last start. Drawn wide and likely to get back off a moderate tempo which makes it harder.

2.Charred has had plenty of goes. Placed a close third behind Oaks placed Star Karen here on Good 3 track  after doing work.Drawn to get a good run and should be fitter after a 1400m pipe opener.

1.Cassio is another who has had plenty of chances and his best runs have been on heavy tracks and he has just battled on Dead tracks from 4 runs. gets 3kgs off but he has a wet track action as well. RP $8, $3.70 is no value

4.Touch Of The Clouds had his chance last start and battled into fourth with a good wet track action. Ran a very good close 4th here fresh up over 1600m when closing strongly out wide. Needs things to go wrong for others to win this.

7.Zedaraad battled on late for a distant second in his trial. Looks a natural stayer but hard to see being in this fresh up.

8.Glad All Over  two starts battled on ok on a heavy track then plugged fo 4th on a very heavy track last start over 1600m. A better track will suit as her dam’s best form was on better tracks. Fitter fourth up and could fill a place in this field.

5.Hosel Rocket has shown little fight in two runs. Blinkers go on and bred to stay and this stable doesn’t persevere with runners that aren’t a chance of paying their way, so could show sharp improvement with the blinkers going on.

 

Race 3

The speed map shows good speed from the inside and outside so an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence:2/5

7.Silver Lake 2nd but was beaten a pimple by a horse that the rider had to break the whip rule on  on debut struck a strong field behind Catalyst but drew wide and had to snag back, but she closed off strongly for seventh and was the only other horse besides Catalyst to break 35 seconds for the last 600 m. She rated an FR ( Formpro Rating ) 101 against race winners which will win any maiden. And her trial at Matamata she drew the inside began well, settled fourth outer and closed strongly on the bridle for second. She has a nice action and drawn to get a better run near the pace behind a decent tempo and this obviously looks easier. RP $2.40, $2.80 FF

Dangers in order:

2.Clever Approach had his last trial back in June dwelt a little at the start but soon got to 2nd outer, then fought on nicely with a nice action to run a close second. From the inside drawer he should be able to land in the trail or lead and from the Nigel Tiley stable will be ready to go on debut.

1.Ferindi 1st $4 In his last trial was quite keen early on then settled with 500 m to go and traveled well down the straight to just hold on. He looks to have ability but the awkward draw and his lack of experience is likely to count against him.

3.Lincoln Thunder at his last trial drew wide but began best and shared the lead to the turn and was beaten by Destination to run a close second. Destination won really well on Saturday at Ellerslie so the form looks good.

5.Triple Heat At her first start here again well then trialed but only battled in the last hundred metres. Then second up she led to the turn but didn’t run it out on the very heavy track. Should be improved by those two runs but still looks a bit weak and from the wide draw should find a few too good.

13.Zakalicious showed early speed in her last two trials and battled ok for third in one and wasn’t asked to go in her last one. Has a good wet track action so if rain came, her chances would increase.

11.Savappiel Ran a good second in a recent trial to a Amusez Moi, who ran a fair race on Saturday at Ellerslie. Drawn to get a good run and could place from there.

8.Thousqndkissesdeep didn’t do much in three runs last campaign, and then in her recent trial was a distant fifth which didn’t look very encouraging for this.

10.Just Chicky In her recent trial showed good early speed to be second outer but didn’t show a lot of fight to run a distant third.

 

Race 4

The speed map shows plenty of early speed out wide and underneath them so a fast pace likely suiting off pace runners.

Confidence:2/5 a nice race where Finale looks to have improved a bit in looks since last campaign. If he leads he will be hard to beat, but Let’s Do This with the blinkers going on looks a real danger. Copiapino is nicely bred and looking forward to seeing how she goes.

2.Finale 1st and won well ran a very good second here on debut and trialed really well recently when speeding out to lead and was well clear on the turn and won easing down. He showed no signs of hanging as he did on race day. Strikes a weak field so has to be the one to beat. RP $2.80, $2.80 FF

Dangers in order:

8.Let’s Do This ran a strong second on debut at Pukekohe then battled second up. Looked ready to fire fresh up again after she ran a good third in a recent trial where she shared the lead and wasn’t pushed at all to run third. She wasn’t wearing blinkers then but they go on today which is always significant fresh up. From the Nigel Tiley stable and from the good draw is a realistic chance. RP $4, $4.80 FF

9.Expressive ran a very good third here just behind Finale last year. He ran a nice third here in a recent trial when settling in behind the leaders, and fought on nicely out wider behind Triomphe. The wide draw is no plus – maps to go forward  but she may snag and  if they go hard, which the speed map indicates, he could get into a place at good odds.

13.Copiapino is well bred out of Atacama who won 7 races including a listed race at Flemington. Has run two good seconds in her trials. The last one she was handy, led 200 out and was beaten late by Run To Perfection who ran a great 2nd on debut at Te Rapa last week. Wide draw no help but has tactical speed to get in one off and be a chance if she gets a good run.

1.Keep The Cash Has run many good placings without winning. He ran an improvers third fresh up, and with a good run should be right in this.

6.Ocean Star didn’t do a lot in three starts in his last campaign. In his recent trial he settled handy and wasn’t pushed to run a close fourth. From the handy draw and from the Jamie Richards stable could place.

14.Meghan trailed nicely here when trailing and traveled well throughout. Once out was never asked for much where the winner was. From the inside draw she can secure a good run and be a place chance from there. Negative is she has the bar plates going on which indicates a foot issue.

3.Louis Fourteen after a couple of ok placings didn’t carry on with it last year. Last trial he ran a distant 2nd to Finale and from the wide draw is going to have to do some extra work so should find two or three of these too good.

5.Balega Has had 16 starts for no wins and based on his recent trial where he was second outer and weakened over the last hundred metres it is hard to see him beating a few of these.

16.Sympathique did nothing on debut But she ran a nice third and a recent trial here without being pushed out. Drawn out which makes it hard for her.

Race 5

The Speed Map shows sees Not Usual Dream and Overthemark likely to share a moderate tempo and suit runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence:2/5 where Flashdance has done the times to warrant her favouritism, but she doesn’t want to get too far back.

8.Flashdance ran a strong third here in a fast speed rating fresh up. Then ran a late finishing  second here over 1400m race and the 3rd and 5th horses have since won well. Last start on the wrong track for her she got back and they didn’t go hard averaging 12.02 per 200 to the 600m and she ran home strongly in 35.67 the 13th fastest last 600 all day and fastest of the race over the 1300m. So with good speed ratings and sectionals  and from a draw where she can settle about 5th or 6th behind a moderate tempo, the step to 1600m looks ideal now fifth up. RP $3.00, $3.00 FF

Dangers:

1.Drops Of Jupiter has run two good seconds. The last where he had to do a bit of extra work and fought well. Big horse and not started for 52 days but had a similar break before that last start second.

2.Into The Deep got back and wide last start but ran on strongly late over 1400m. He will appreciate the extra 200m here and Danielle Johnson will give him every chance. Action says a better track will be ok.

3.Not Usual Dream ran a couple of good seconds but disappointed since. Did nothing in a recent trial. Drawn to get a good run in the lead or near it. Could place if he was just foxing in that trial. Market move in this stable will indicate chances.

4.Etch ran third fresh up over 1600 and did well over more ground after. Won a recent trial in a weak 4 horse field. Likely to get back and could get into a place with a decent tempo. Likely to be better over a middle distance.

5.Overthemark has had a many starts for three placings. The last behind Drops of Jupiter.will settle handy but hard to see beating some of these.

6.Kissinger ran a fair second in his last of four trials with a wet track action. Drawn wide and even though he’s from the Tiley stable looks to have his work cut out from a wide draw where he is likely to snag.

11.Shocking Penny did little on debut and hard to see troubling many of these.

7.Stockmans Story led in his recent trial here and was gone 300m out. Pass.

9.Our Star did nothing in his last two starts since a good second on a heavy 11 track. Drawn handy and will settle handy. Place chance at best.

Race 6

The Speed map shows Secret Runner and Foo An Songs sharing a moderate pace suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence:2/5 and Gigolo George looks well placed third up to win but needs to begin well and may not. The value is 2.Secret Runner. If he can lead as the map says, and George misses the jump and gets back, it would not surprise to see him kick and lead all the way.

11.Gigolo George, a nice looking galloper, on debut was slow away and tailed the field but ran on well along the rail over 1000m. Then second up in a stronger maiden field, was crowded at the start but was able to slide up in behind the leader and trail but was a bit keen behind the slowish tempo. Then once out drove to the lead and was oufinished late by the good horse Sherwood Forrest with some horses that are going to win races behind him. He needs to jump cleaner from the good draw and should do with a slower runner inside him and faster one outside him, and third up, he does look well placed to outfinish these with his race fitness advantage over the two below. RP $3.20, $3.50 in from $4 FF

Dangers:

12.Miradello  showed good improvement last start to find the line hard for third. Will be improved further with that. Negative is she gets back and the tempo will be against her, but peaking third up.

2.Secret Runner ran a top race at Ellerslie over 1600m when setting a good pace and was swamped late for a close fourth in a good speed rating. Had a good blowout trial here recently. Looks the leader and if he can get away with a soft lead, he is going to be the one Triomphe has to chase down.

4.Triomphe almost ran down Secret Runner over that 1600m at Ellerslie and then ran a good race for 3rd over 2100m at Te Teko. He trialed here recently and showed his usual lack of early speed and settled fifth but once balanced up strode away strongly to win very well. The negative is he maps to be at best 3 back inner but probably last and with the tempo favouring the first half of the field, he may get held up and caught out in a sprint home. More ground and a better tempo will suit him.

13.Qiji Dancer  looked an improver from her 4th here on debut. Wide draw no help though.

10.Rely On Stanima  won her trial easily but bat nothing. Drawn to get a good run and could sneak into a place from the trail.

1.Foo An Songs ran two good seconds early in his campaign. Fresh up he was ridden off the pace and was caught wide and did nothing in the straight. Needs to improve off that.

9.Kayture  has run some nice races. No go on a bog last start but better track will suit. Wide draw no good though as she is likely to snag.

8.One Way Street has had many chances and run some good placings. Gets 3kgs off but should be held by a few in this.

7.Roc In Style has done little to encourage his chances against these. Only positives are a good draw and the Blinkers going on.

Race 7

The speed map shows Mumms Jewel, Annie Okay,  Stand Tall, Red Dynamo, Creative Genius should all look to get handy with Red Dynamo likely to lead and an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5 where the best horse racing today returns, Riding The Wave, and he looks ready to win and go on with it. The only danger is Annie Okay who will get an ideal run.

4.Riding The Wave looked very good winning at Te Aroha beating a nice field of 3yos. Then next start trailed the smart Santa Catarina and fought well for 2nd in a sprint home. He’s a big fella who has definitely matured into a good looking horse now based on his recent trial where he relaxed well second outer and had the other two covered comfortably. But the real plus is the way the way he dropped his head in running, so Nigel Tiley has done a top job getting him to do that. Drawn wide and unless he flies out of the gates, is likely to snag with good speed inside him so he needs an even pace up front so he can get over these. There looks to be a good chance of that and he won easily fresh up last campaign over 1400m. He is definitely a horse who will win more races  and maybe later in the Land Of Oz and you couldn’t say that about any of the others in this field. RP $1.70, $1.95 FF

Dangers in order:

7.Annie Okay won easily on debut over 1200m on a Dead 4 track and  then ran third in the Soliloquy Stakes at Ellerslie behind Media Sensation beating some nice horses. Also beat smart mare Burgundy Belle twice last campaign. She had a quiet trial here recently when she was full of running and wasn’t asked to go at any stage. She was scratched from Saturday for this. Drawn to get all favours and looks the only one who can beat Riding The wave if he strikes trouble. RP $5, $7.50 FF

3.Red Dynamo in June led all the way here to win strongly over 1600m on a dead 5 track. Fresh up here in August led then trailed and fought on strongly for second. He drops back to 1400m here and he is a bit one paced but if he can hold the lead from the inside draw and set an even tempo, Danielle may be able to take the sprint out of the others by the turn and just keep going.

2. Creative Genius ran some good races up to 1600m last campaign. Looked ready to fire fresh up when 2nd outer in his rial relaxing well and won it strongly. Needs to ping the gates to get handy and can place if he does.

6.Ohceedee was in great form this time last year but in six starts since seemed to have lost his will to win. Trailed well alongside Riding The Wave recently and has won fresh up over 1200m. 1400m  is ok fresh as he’s won over 1600m and can place with a good run.

8.Mumms Jewel looked good winning here over 1200m in a good speed rating then won again over 1200m. But her next two starts were weak. In her recent trial she got to 2nd outer easily but faded out for a distant 5th. Drawn wide here and will have to use petrol early to get across one off so hard to see her kicking and winning so looks covered by stronger runners.

5.Stand Tall has been rating well but has his best form over 1200m and struggled over 1400m. Battling 4th here fresh up over 1200m getting a perfect run. Plus is he will get a good run and gets 3kgs off with good apprentice Chelsea Burden up.

9.Roc Wheeler won a double after two runs back beating average fields. Then did little in four starts after that. Trialed ok for 3rd recently and is likely to need this run.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!