Home » Results » Saturday, 5 October 2019 preview below

Saturday, 5 October 2019 preview below

Update: 11.10 a.m.

Head to head Race 1 Casino El Jay $1.95 to beat Sweat Treat who has 4kgs more and CEJ is a better horse. Yes

Len S who won last week’s multi bet from Heads Up hs this $20 bet: Casino El Jay Head to head with Sweet Treat, $1.95, Catalyst to win, Melody Belle to win and Stradivarius to place.$187.20 Missed with Stradivarius missing the jump and had to be used up early.

Update: 7.52 a.m. Saturday

Good morning. Hastings has got back to a Dead 5 and Riccarton a Dead 4 so some really good racing coming up. I’ll post an update by noon with any other bets.

Good luck.

Bet of the day Hastings Race 4 6.Swords Drawn $3.30 FF ( Quality bet ) 1st $2

Value bet of the day Hastings Race 9 12.Stradivarius $10 ( Quality bet )

Speed Map Special Hastings race 8 3.Peso $9.50 FF in the melody belle out market and $3.80 place ( Quality bet ) Yes

Sneaky of the Day Hastings Race 1 10.Casino El Jay $9 Ff 2nd by a pimple

Other Quality bets: Riccarton Race 6 2.Zelenski $3 FF( Quality bet ) Missed after getting squeezed up early

Riccarton Race 9 6.Diorissimo $6 FF ( Quality bet ) 2nd had her chance.

The GOAT’s best two sports bets are Buller to win $2.20 head to head ( yes- just won 47-8! )  at 2.30 today and The Roosters to win $1.40 head to head.

Update: 12.10 p.m. Friday

HEADS UP is posted here with the Goat and I previewing the two big races from Hastings, sports bets and much more including your chance to win a $20 multi

Below are the Quality bets so far. If you are looking for a Multi maker then at Te Rapa the head to head in race 4 Bothered $1.70 Yes to beat Dance Card looks the best option all day there.

The early Quality bets are: 15.5 units spent for a return of 35.8 and a 20.3 unit profit

Hastings:

Race 4 6.Swords Drawn $3.30 Ff ( 2.8 units) yes

Race 8 3.Peso $9.50 ( 2 units ) on the market without Melody Belle and $3.80 for a place ( 2 units )  in the normal market. yes

Race 9 12.Stradivarius $10 FF and $3.10 Ff (2 units a win and 2 a place)

Riccarton Park:

Race 6 2.Zelinksi $3 ( 2.7 units)

Race 8 6.Diorissimo $6 ( 2 units a win )

Race

Hastings

Our Track Walker, Brendan, said, ” It is a Dead 6 now but very patchy with Good and slower patches all around the course. With the forecast, it will likely get back to a Dead 5, maybe a Dead 4 by race time. No obvious bias.”

Race 1

The speed map shows Centre Attention likely to lead with Casino El Jay, To Love You handy. A moderate tempo is likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

10.Casino El Jay 2nd $3 qu $14.90  won very well last start from last on a track she may not have been totally happy in. Her time was much better than the R82 race which was run at a slower tempo, but she ran home quicker than any of those over the last 600m and did it wide. Plus her last 600m compared very well to the Open handicap run over 1600m, so the information is there to say she can win more races. She has drawn well and maps to get a good run near a moderate to even tempo and get every chance to win with a nice weight advantage over the favoured runners and with Lisa Allpress up. RP $5, $9 and $2.80 FF There is a Money back bet up to $30 if she runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

Dangers:

6.Beauty Star 1st $3.40 is racing very well and closed hard for 2nd here last start. Maps to get back though and if the tempo backs off, which is likely, he can get caught out in a sprint home.

2.Soleseifei  ran an improver’s third here last start. Wide draw no help but fitter now.

5.To Love You two good wins down south and drawn to get every chance.

Race 2

The speed map shows good early speed and an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

9.Mr Universe 3rd $2.30 almost beat Cavallo Veloce last campaign in a very good speed rating and meets him 3.5kgs off. He is best suited to a race like this with good speed on where he can get into his stride and use his powerful sprint to win. Drawn to do that. RP $3.50, $5.50 Ff

Dangers:

2.Santa Catarina looked ready to go fresh up when taking a sit in her trial and finished under a hold at Ruakaka. She can sweat up a bit but showed little sign of that in her trial.Likely to take a sit here with good pace either side of her and looks the main danger.

1.Cavallo Veloce  is better suited back to 1200m. Drawn to get a good run and needs a good run from that draw to beat the above two.

6.Vinnie’s Volley run down late by a good horse fresh up here. If not taken on too much, will be the one to run down.

Race 3

The speed map shows plenty of early speed across the field and a fast tempo likely

Confidence: 2/5

2.Rainbow Dundee  ran a very good second here fresh up. The drop back to 1200m suits and drawn to get a good run with 2kgs off. RP $5, $8 FF

Dangers:

5.Masque looked ready to win after a very good trial run. Needs a good ride though.

10.Heart Of Stone looked impressive winning two starts back and battled next up. Drawn out and will need to work to get a good run, so will be vulnerable late.

9.Pimms ‘N’ Pearls ran some good races last campaign and trialed nicely. Gets 3kgs off.

Race 4

The speed map shows four runners looking to lead and a few looking to get in behind. An even tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

6.Swords Drawn $2 and was an oustanding bet after the trainer said Lily D’or was looking for more ground  was the plunge horse of the day at Hastings and closed off hard late for second over 1300m running 11.04 for his last 200m, the second fastest all day. The step to 1400m is ideal for this good looking galloper. Maps to get a good run in the trail or 3 back inner behind an even tempo and with Opie up, will get out in time to bury these. RP $2.40, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

4.Lily d’or  won well on the first day but in a slower speed rating than Swords Drawn and this time she has drawn wide and will have to work to get one off and be vulnerable late in this harder field.

5.Penny Royal  won strongly on a good tempo last start in the fastest of the five 1300m races. Drawn to get a good run.

10.Sahalainn  ran on well on debut and with a good run can place.

Race 5

The Speed map shows Exuberant likely to lead again with a few looking to get handy. catalyst has the tactical speed to get in one off.

Confidence: 5/5

1.Catalyst 1st $1.30 best run all day is a terrific looking galloper with an ideal action. He could not have been more running the best speed rating all day, faster time than the Open handicap and still 33.86 for his last 600m and 11.08 for his last 200m, which was the fastest of the day. Only very bad luck can beat him and he should beat these comfortably. RP $1.10, $1.28 Ff

Dangers: 

2.Aotea Lad  3rd $2.70 last campaign ran some very good races, the best being a game second in the Karaka Million to Probabeel. He looked like he would be even better as a three year old and over more ground. He was an unlucky 4th fresh up and will only improve out of that. The step to 1400m suits and he does look the main danger.

4.Callsign Mav  2nd $2.50 won in a good speed rating here two weeks ago and the step to 1400m is ideal. Needs a good ride from Craig Grylls from a wide barrier though.

3.Exuberant set a good pace at Ruakaka but was bit keen, so the slower tempo over 1400m will not suit as well. Can hold on for third or 4th though.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

12.Yamuna 1st $5.90 drops back to 1600m after a good finish here last start over more ground. If she can settle 3 back inner, she will be the one to beat. RP $4.50

Dangers:

10.Stilton is a nice mare and fresh up could swamp them late.

1.Motivation  with a good run can place.

14.Tuigirl  is capable of upsetting on her favourite track.

Race 7

Speed map shows Tavis Court crossing to lead with Aim Smart and Saignon in behind. An even tempo likely.

3.Tavis Court  maps to lead and on a Dead track back in class, he will be very hard to run down. RP $3.50, $4 FF

Dangers:

2.Aim Smart  1st $5.50 is a nice horse and with a good ride from Opie, looks the main danger.

1.Inrigue if they go hard, could swamp them late.

8.Prince Hareem had his chance last start and ran on ok for fourth. May be better left handed.

Race 8

Livamol Classic

The speed map shows early speed from out wide and Melody Belle being able to slot in about 4th and get every chance. An even tempo is likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 5/5

10.Melody Belle 1st $1.30 could not have been more impressive winning last start here. They went hard and she was still too strong late in fast time. She probably needed that to get fit enough for this. From the good draw, she will get every chance and it is going to take very bad luck to see beaten. RP $1.10, $1.25 Ff

Dangers:

3.Peso  2nd $4 and $11.90 qu  with a very good ride and gutsy run  is peaking at the right time fourth up after a strong win over 2000m here two weeks ago. He has rated an FR of 114 when running a top second in fast time at Awapuni when carrying 58.5kgs giving good weight away. Drawn to lead or be right on it. He is very tough and is set to go the race of his life. If melody Belle strikes very bad luck, he is the one to upset them. A Dead to Slow track is ideal for him. Currently $26 and $3.80 FF and $9.50 FF with Melody Belle out of the market.

2.Mongolian Marshal will appreciate the step up in distance and is peaking third up. Drawn to get every chance but may just need one more before being at peak.

9.Vernanme won well over 1600m last start and will be fitter. He is getting to a distance that suits him better as well. Would have likes to have seen him have one run over ground though before going into this.

 

Race 9

The speed map shows plenty of early speed here which will ensure a solid tempo suiting runners with cosy runs or off the pace.

Confidence:3/5

12.Stradivarius  won very strongly here last start over 1200m. His closing sectionals were strong running the 7th fastest last 200m all day ( 11.29) in a the strongest run of the three 1200m races. He had the blinkers go on then and dropped to 53kgs and was given a terrific ride by Madan Singh. The step to 1400m is ideal third up and he gets in on 54kgs, just 1 kg over the minimum. He has drawn to either trail or be 3 back inner behind the decent tempo and get every chance to get over these again.  A Dead to Slow track is ideal. RP $5, $11 and $3.20 Ff

Dangers:

9.Dawn Patrol  is settling much better now and did well to win last start. With a good run, he should be right in this.

10.Hanger gets in on a nice weight and should get a good run off the decent tempo and can place from there.

8.Lucyinrio if she can cross and sit 2nd outer and they ease off, can hold on for a place.

Race 10

The speed map shows no obvious leader and a moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half.

Confidence:2/5

7.Sir Nate is third up here after two nice runs on the first day. He gets to a distance he prefers, 1600m, and drawn to land in the first four and be hard to beat. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

10.Hartley 1st =won well here last start but got all favours. Very fit which has to help and should land handy.

3.Cutting Up Rough 1st =  won very well last start.gets 3kgs off.

15.Awesome Al ran home in good sectionals and with the right run, can upset.

 

Riccarton

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

2.Zelinski last start ran a top race when caught 3 wide in the open on the fastest tempo set all day, yet he was still able to fight hard for third in the best speed rating all day, only 4.2L behind Catalyst. None of these would be capable of getting withing 4 lengths of him doing it 3 wide in the open. The step to 1400m is ideal and he is ideally drawn to get a good run on the pace and looks very hard to beat. RP $2.20, $3.00 FF

Dangers:

11.Karalino  closed off strongly second up at Hastings then got caught 3 wide at Ruakaka and fought well for third in a good form race. maps to be three back inner and looks the main danger.

Race 8

The speed map shows at least an even tempo.

Confidence: 3/5

6.Diorissimo  looks well placed here third up over 2000m. She really impressed last campaign with her back to back wins with a very nice staying action. She gets back and needs a decent tempo which she will get here, and on 54kgs with Sam Wynne riding her, who knows her well, she can get over these. RP $3.80, $6 FF

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!