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Wednesday 9 October preview below

Update:

Head to head race 2

Cinzento $3.60 1st and never in doubt  😉 after getting taken over the outside fence on the turn!  to beat Wild West.  See below for Cinzento preview. Wild West on debut, was a bit slow away but was lucky to hunt through and lead and set a moderate tempo, being the fourth slowest sectional to the 600m of the five x 1300m races that day, yet could only run home in 36.48 for second. The third horse Mirabello, ran a battling fifth next up, so that also indicates it was just an average effort. With Cinzento coming into this with far stronger time and class ratings, she just needs a decent run from the wide draw to beat Wild West home.

Taupo

Some interesting races at Taupo today. There is one Quality bet so far. Race 2 6.Cinzento at $4.20 Ff. I’ll post an update by noon.

Bet of the day Race 2 6.Cinzento $4.20 FF ( 3.8 units at $4.20 with the Value Staking Plan )  $3.60 $3.60 with a terrific win. 16 unit return for a 12.2 unit profit.

Value bet of the day Race 1 1.Manrico $4.20 Ff but is likely to pay more with others being talked up. 1st $5.30 

Race 1

Early speed from 1, 2,8,9, 13 and 6 with Manrico likely to try and lead.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Manrico game second at Counties to Symbio who has won again since. Then fresh up at Ellerslie drew wide , had to work to get 3 wide in the open and was strong to the line- a top run. Drawn to be on the pace here and 1300m ideal. Hard to say if that took the edge off him so good one to see in the birdcage. RP $3.50, $4.20 FF

Dangers in order:

2.Ruiz did very well on debut when wide midfield and closed off strongly late at Waipa. He looked good closing off in his recent trial for second. Ross McCarroll is a very good trainer and 3kgs off helps with a determined looking galloper.

8.Ronaldos Dream was ok when fifth at Matamata then last start at Ruakaka drew wide snagged to last and kept on making ground in an on pace race behind three good horses. Fitter now and third up from a good draw this time, should get every chance. Only niggle is he may be looking for more ground as he was a bit one paced in the last 100 of both races.

9.Motley Crew has good early speed. Fair 7th in stronger field last start but drawn out and will need to work early and be vulnerable .

10.Excitonic nice looking galloper who was stiff here on debut. Drawn wide here though.

Race 2

The speed map shows three runners going forward and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 4/5 

6.Cinzento brings very strong form into this. Fresh up she ran third at Hastings when drawing wide, working to get 2nd outer, led and was swamped late, beating good horses like Callsign Mav and Lily d’Or who both won next up. The second up she was winding into it and clipped heels and nearly fell, but recovered really well for sixth, running her last 200m in 11.43, 14th fastest all day. But I estimated that incident cost her at least 4 lengths in the last 200m and she would have won, so that makes her last 200m around 10.95, the fastest of the day, and the five runners ahead of her have all won races. She rated an FR of 97 but that would have been around 100 if she had won, which puts her clearly on top here back in a maiden. The 1300m looks ideal third up and she looks strong than her previous campaign. John Bary will be keen to win this race with her to get into the better stake 3yo races. She has drawn out but showed good tactical speed fresh up in a stronger field at Hastings to get 2nd outer, and she maps to do the same here despite drawing the widest. It will depend on how well she jumps, but I’m picking plan A will be to go forward to take bad luck out and snag if she misses it. The draw is the only negative otherwise she would have been rated lower. Her Speed and Formpro Ratings say she can beat this weaker field easily and with rider Donovan Mansour riding with very good judgment, she should get every chance to do that. RP $2.20, $4.20 ( You can get your money back if she runs 2nd 3rd or 4th for your first bet on the race with Final Field odds up to $30. )

Dangers:

1.Wild West last start here was last away but was able to hunt through and lead and fought well for second but is a slowish speed rating.

3.Whispering Wind  fresh up here got back and ran on well, but should find Cinzento too good.

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

11.Aalaalune has done the sectionals and times to say she just needs a decent pace in this to win well. There looks to be enough tempo in it and dropping back from Group 1 company where she was ridden incorrectly up on the pace, she rates clearly on top here and the 1300m suits. Plus she is fitter now. The negative is she just seems to find a way to get beaten so needs Trudy to give her every chance.  RP $2.20, $2.40 FF

Danger:

3.Soft Hearted  looked an improver off her fresh up second here.

6.Recension  won her trail in June but tended to over race again when leading all the way. The money has come for her but you couldn’t be confident with the way she races over 1300m fresh up with no recent trial.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

1.Hierarchy ran a strong 4th here on debut when 3 wide on the pace and fought well behind some nice horses. Drawn better and fitter.

A tricky race with a few with dangers. In order: 6-5-3-14

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

9.The Fugitive some strong races last campaign and resumed with a good fifth when he missed the jump slightly and had to be used up to hunt through and lead Catalyst and he was sweating up a bit too. He was 3rd 100m out and battled well for fifth. This is easier and he will be fitter now. If he can begin cleaner can lead all the way. RP $4, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

2.Top Brass  won well here on debut and if she can cross to 2nd outer without working too much, will be in this.

10.Ensemble  goes well fresh and is primed to do the same after a couple of quiet trials.

12.Lilikoi  also won well here last start and drawn to get a similar run.

3.Miss Valencia will be better over more ground but if they go hard, could easily beat these.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

4.Shadow Runner has looked very good in his trial wins and with a good beginning over the 1100m, is the one to beat. RP $2.50, $2.60 FF

Dangers:

6.Burgundy Rose  two solid seconds. Fitter and drawn to get a winning run.

Race 7

The speed map shows it is going to be a charge of the light brigade to the first bend and a fast pace likely suiting a runner with a cosy run or off the pace.

Confidence:

7.Pierina  won fresh up over 1000m at Scone  coming from last of a good tempo here. Then won her next start. She had a very quiet trial at Ruakaka when last all the way but was never let go and looked full of running. Will get back but with a hot tempo, could surprise fresh up. RP $.50, $7 FF

Dangers:

4.Bolt From The Blue  won easily on debut here and fresh up last campaign. Had a nice trial recently for 4th and if he can begin cleanly, could do it.

3.Blood Warrior  has looked good in his short career but does things wrong and around here, if you flinch you are gone, so $2.40 is too short. I’m surprised he hasn’t been to a trial or jumpout to see how he is travelling with his manners.

8.Walkin’ By  won at Ellerslie in 1.09.9 from off the pace. He has had a warm up and will get back and if the gaps come, could do it with the nice weight advantage over the favourites.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

7.Verbier  has run two good races this campaign and 1800m suits third up. Sam Weatherley has chosen him over Gone West. RP $4.50

Dangers:

13.Gone West found the line hard late here last start. May be looking for more ground but if they go hard, could do it.

12.Zareeba  third up and 1800m suits now.

5.Acacia  may get a softish lead and with the blinkers going on now, be hard to run down.

11.Two Madison fitter now and could upset.

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!