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Saturday 12 October preview below

After Nettoyer won 16.5 units returned ( 9.6 units outlaid for the day and 16.5 returned for a 6.9 unit profit. 12.2 units made from Wednesday’s Cinzento bet gives a 19.1 unit net profit for the week. )

Update 4.06: No more bets

Update: 11.47 no further bets. But check back after 4pm as there may be another Quality bet at Sydney depending on how that track is. Eli’s multi is on Homesman and Nettoyer to return $280
Update 7.50 a.m.

The track at Matamata is a Heavy 10 and Hawera has come back to a Dead 5 which is good to see. Every year I review this Hawera meeting, I have noted that Market Movers have a strong strike rate here, so watch out for those. Maybe it is the number of invisible jumpouts ( Except for New Plymouth now) or the right info spreading along the grapevine at lightning speed.

Two Quality bets so far but there may be one more once I can confirm the track conditions at Sydney. ( 14mm is forecast before the first race )

I’ll post an update by noon along with Eli’s Heads Up multi.

Bet of the day Caulfield race 7 7.Homesman $ Ff ( Quality bet with 6 units at $4 FF )

Value bet of the day Sydney Race 6 2.Nettoyer $4.60 Friday FF ( Quality bet with 3.6 units at $4.60 FF )

Speed map Special Hawera race 5 4.Nymphe Monte $3.80 FF

Sneaky of the day Matamata Race 6 16.Yamuna $16 FF less deductions ( $12 Saturday 8 15 a.m. )

Update 4.40 p.m. Heads Up can be heard here. There were plenty of winners on it last week, and we have a couple of nice value bets as well this week. Plus you can win a $20 multi bet

Update 12.51 : Nettoyer in race 6 at Randwick on Saturday is another Quality bet. There may be one more bet at Sydney but that rain has to definitely arrive to be on it ( Quick Thinker eachway in race 7 – I’ll update that tomorrow morning )

Update: noon Friday. Just the one Quality bet so far, Holmsman at Caulfield race 7 7.Holmsman 6 units at $4 FF

Sydney

Race 6 6.10 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet.

2.Nettoyer 1st with a top ride from Bossy last Saturday in the much stronger Epsom, she closed off strongly down the outside in the second fastest last 600m of the race. She drop backs to a mares race and she bolted in here on a slow to heavy track earlier in her career. So the forecast 20mm of rain is only going to slow the others up in front and suit her ideally. Maps to get back but she looks just so well placed here, she should deal to these on a soft track. RP $2.50, $4.60 FF ( 3.6 units at $4.60 FF ) 16.5 units returned ( 9.6 units outlaid for the day and 16.5 returned for a 6.9 unit profit. 12.2 units made from Wednesday’s bet gives a 19.1 unit net profit for the week. )

Caulfield

It is going to be a Good 4 and firm going here.

Race 7

The speed map shows Gailo Chop and Holmsman sitting outside him controlling what should be at best an even tempo, suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 3/5 and is a Quality bet ( 6 units at $4 )

7.Holmsman  Missed after getting the perfect run.  He won easily fresh up over 1600m from there and last start drew wide, was forced to snag and take a sit 3 and 4 wide with and without cover after beginning well. So he had the toughest run in the field and was still able to have the best closing sectionals from start to the 200m and still ran the second fastest last 200m of the race behind the winner Black Heart Bart, who got all favours in the trail. So third up and fitter, where he maps to get ideal run 2nd outer, and Avilius will be behind and is likely to need a Slow track to get an advantage over him, he looks excellent value at $4 FF RP $2.00 ( Value Staking Plan says 6 units at $4 FF )

 

Matamata is now a heavy track so that won’t suit most and some runners will be racing just to get a run into them.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

9.Taree won well here then backed it up with a strong second. Gets 3kgs off and very fit. RP $6, $9 FF

Dangers in order: 1-15

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

2.Wrangler has the best three FR’s ( Formpro Ratings ) in the last 12 months on a heavy track. He is going nice races and is good value at $15 and $4

Dangers in order: 8-12-1

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

11.Ruby Negroni rated an FR of 100 in the Ryder Stakes on a heavy track. had no chance back on a dry track at hastings but has the best rating by 5 lengths on a heavy track of any of these. RP $10, $31 and $5.50 Ff

Dangers: 5-12-4

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

12.Goodnight Irene rates strongly here with the 3kgs off. Drawn to get a good run and be a nice eachway chance. RP $7, $11,

Dangers in order: 10-5-2

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

1.On Point  has 3 of the top 5 FRs on a heavy track and won her trial very well beating nice horses.  Nice eachway value. RP $7, $14 FF win and $4 place

Dangers:

12.Star Treasure  rates 2nd best based on her game second to Battle Time at Tauranga on a very heavy track.

8.Burgundy Belle handles a heavy track and is an obvious chance after her strong win.

5.Speedy Meady is a good horse and could easily win if ready.

13.Supreme Heights an obvious chance in an even race.

Race 6

Three horses rate on top in the Formpro Ratings here on a heavy track. Hinerangi, Dez and Verry Flash

Confidence: 2/5

16.Yamuna was perfectly ridden by Craig Grylls to win very well last Saturday at Hastings in similar time to the R82 race and had to run the fastest last 600m all day to do it. Yes, this is a big step in class but she handles a heavy track very well and has a light weight, 53kgs, which is the lightest she has ever carried. The rider, Ryoya Kozaki, has won 111 races on the flat. She can settle midfield and her turn of foot on a heavy track, with the light weight, and being rock hard fit, could allow her to upset these. RP $8, $17 FF

Dangers:

2.Dez  ran a game third last start with a big weight in the slower part of the track. He’ll handle the going better than most and is a realistic chance.

6.Battle Time  just went down last start. Will relish a heavy track more than most and drawn the rail, and if the inside is ok, should be a place chance.

1.Vin De Dance has had two trials to get ready and won’t mind a heavy track. Giving weight away but is a good horse.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

6.De Gaulle  has the best FR of 110 on a heavy track when 2nd to Rosewood in an Open handicap.  He won very well last start and is nice value around $10 FF

10.Elle Eye Are  had the blinkers go on last start and it almost worked. Gets in on a light weight and right in this.

11.Lumious  won easily in a good speed rating last start. Can win with all favours.

 

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

8.Barbara won well here two back and was caught at the back last start off a moderate tempo. Drawn to get all favours here. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

11.Vain Glory  is a nice horse and drawn to get every chance.

1.Battle Royal  could upset with a good run.

Egmont at Hawera

It has come back to a Dead 5 here. Tough open fields so tread carefully. Every year I review this meetinbg I always have down the Market movers have a strong strike rate here, so take note of those early on for your quaddies etc.

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

8.Lincoln Dreamer big run last start. Will get back but be flying home. RP $5.00, $5.00 FF

Dangers in order: 5-2-4

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

16.Not Santa is a good horse and will be ready to fire fresh up with Lisa Alpress up. RP $4, $ FF

Dangers in order: 14-1-6

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

4.Tavi Mac won really well fresh up. May get back on the inner and need luck though. RP $3.00

Dangers:

6.What A Smasher  could sneak into it fresh up being stronger now. 

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

4.Junior  in great form and if the inside is off, the wide draw may be a plus. RP $5

Dangers in order: 14-2-7

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

4.Nymphe Monte  won this race last year and ran home in the fastest last 600m all day last start. Ready to win back to back races. RP $3.50

Dangers:

3.In A Twinkling  will be fitter now and with a good ride, should be in this. Tough horse when right.

10.Hi I’m Nikita  will appreciate any rain. Won a sit sprint last start.

7.Charlie Horse  just keeps on winning- toughest test though.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

7.Tightlign   is a nice horse who needed that last run according to the trainer. Will get back with an even tempo likely, can get over thee. RP $4, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

16.Mars Bars  is weighted to test Tightlign.

3.Beauden fitter and drawn to get every chance.

12.Guillada  is a nice horse and could do it with a good run.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

9.Livin’ On A Prayer ran a strong second to Nicoletta in this last year and is third up off an improver’s run for 4th at Ellerslie last start on a heavy track that didn’t suit her. She ran a 3 length 6th in the Telegraph earlier this year. Wayne Hillis is a very good trainer and will have her primed to go one better on the Dead 5 track this time. RP $8, $16 FF

Dangers:

13.Queen Of Diamonds has had two trials and had the blinkers go on in her last trial. She pinged and led, and kept going strongly to just go down but wasn’t pushed. She maps to get a nice sit about 4th outer behind an even tempo, and as long as the track is a genuine Dead 6 or better, she is good enough to beat these.

3.Darscape Princess  improved nicely into her second trial and with a good run can be right in this if it is Dead or better.

7.Te Toro Pearl back to 1400m will suit.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

10.Neverstoplaughing  fitter after two runs. Racing out of class but has been backed heavily. RP $5

Dangers:

7.Miss Freelove  with a good run is the one to test the favourite.

3.Rusavy  looked like he would be better with time and gets 2kgs from a good draw.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

4.Whata Red Prince is a good horse and will have been set for this. RP $4

Dangers in order: 8-16-3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!