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Friday preview below

Update: No further bets. Next update 5 p.m. for Saturday

Good morning

There are some tricky earlier races with a lot of trials form and on a heavy track, it just makes it hard to bet with any confidence,so I have concentrated on the last four races. I’ll post an update by noon. An early preview of Saturday is here.

Bet of the day Race 9 1.Aero De Paris $2.30 FF  1st $2.50 

Value bet of the day Race 7 3.Cherry Lane $3.70 FF 1st $4.10 

Race 7

The speed map shows Creative Genius, Cherry Lane and Babiche sharing a moderate pace and being a 5 horse field, it is likely to be a sit sprint.

Confidence:2/5

3.Cherry Lane led all the way at Te Aroha over 1600m loving the mud. She needed that last run and I’m picking it is a race where she can lead, dictate and be hard to run down again.RP $3, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

8.Quizzy Lizzie won well off a good speed last start. She will relish the heavy track but may not be suited to a sit sprint coming from 4th outer.

7.Just Treasure  has won over 1600m from last off a good tempo. Freshened up and gets 2kgs off making her an obvious danger, even in a sit sprint.

1.Creative Genius and 6.Babiche need better ground.

 

Race 8

The speed map shows The Poormanzabeel likely to lead and set an even tempo.

Confidence: 1/5

1.The Poormanzabeel  won well two back leading all the way. He went to fast at Hawera in front in a harder field and tired. He should get his own way here this time and if the inside is ok, he could prove hard to catch again. RP $5, $8.50

Dangers:

2.Double Happy  easily beat Vain Glory last start who won easily last Saturday. Should be trailing or 3 back inner and be right in this.

6.Franklin  has placed on a heavy track at Ellerslie when just beaten. Natural stayer who is always a chance in a race like this.

3.Rocking Good Time  strong third two starts back and gets in on a nice weight this time.

Race 9

The speed map shows three runners going forward and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

1.Aero De Paris has beaten better fields than this. He has been freshened up since battling late over 1400m at Hastings. he handles a heavy track well and they have stuck with the experience of Troy Harris to make sure he gets a decent run and uses his explosive sprint to best effect. Should win. RP $2.00, $2.30 Ff

Race 10

The speed maps shows St Andre likely to lead and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

11.Trouble  won at Ellerslie in March on a heavy 10 in better time than better class races. he has been finding the line well in his three starts this campaign and with the 2kgs off, looks nicely placed to to beat this weaker field. RP $3, $3.40 FF

Dangers:

2.St Andre  fitter now and may get an uncontested lead.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!