Home » Results » Saturday 19 October 2019 preview below

Saturday 19 October 2019 preview below

Update 11.55 ( The only Quality bet today is God Of Thunder )

Head to Heads

Ashburton Race 8 Okay Pal $1.90  to beat Karalino

Rotorua race 7 Midnight Runner $1.65 to beat Santa Monica

David P’s Multi is the two head to heads plus God Of Thunder to win at $3.90 Ff

Good morning,

With a heavy track at Ashburton, it makes it tough but there is one horse there it will suit more than most. I’ll post an update by noon along with David P’s bet for the $20 multi from Heads Up.

Good luck.

 

Bet of the day Caulfield race 7 9. God Of Thunder $4.20 Ff ( Quality bet 3.4 units) 2nd 

Value bet of the day Ashburton race 8 2.Okay Pal $6.50 FF

Speed map special Sydney race 7 1.Santa Ana Lane $4.20 FF 2nd

Sneaky of the day Rotorua Race 1 7.Tears Of Jupiter $5.50 FF less deductions ( You can bet up to $50 on FF betting on her and as long as she doesn’t finish last you get your money back in bonus bets. 2nd money back in bonus bets

The Goat’s best sports bets are Wanganui -4.5 $1.85 in the rugby this afternoon at 2 p.m. into England to beat Australia in the rugby tonight head to head at $1.28 Yes for both

Heads Up can be heard here

Update 3.30 p.m. God Of Thunder detailed below is the only Quality bet so far.

Rotorua early preview. No Quality bets so far. The best value bet so far is London Express in race 7 at Rotorua at $6.50 but could pay more on the day.

Caulfield 

Race 7 5.45 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5

9.God Of Thunder was impressive fresh up then did very well for third next up. Then last start at Moonee Valley, got back from a wide draw and charged home for second running fast and strong closing sectionals. He looks ideally placed here from a good draw, to settle about 4th or 5th with a decent tempo in front of him, and come with a strong burst to get over these with the nice weight. (Any showers that are forecast will only help his chances ) RP $2.50, $4.20 Ff ( Value staking plan says 3.4 units at $4.20 FF )

Caulfield

Race 9 7.15 Caulfield Cup

Confidence: 1/5

14.Vow And Declare ran a top second to Mr Quickie in the Queensland Derby after working the hardest of any. Then he bolted in nest up over 3000m, so we know he can stay. Nice 4th fresh up and with a good run likely, is the best eachway chance in the race. RP $6, $9 Ff

Sydney

Race 7 The Everest

Confidence: 2/5

1.Santa Ana Lane just needs to things to win this race- a decent tempo and a good track and he will get both. He holds the track record here and is primed to win this. RP $3.50, $4.20 FF

Race 1

The speed map shows Roc Cha, Tears Of Jupiter  and Equinox going forward and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence:2/5

7.Tears Of Jupiter  won her trial well on a heavy track coming off the pace and wound up well. On debut she led a good field at Ellerslie and fought well for 4th rating an FR of 101 which is good enough to win this. Her action says she will handle the going better than most and with that run under her belt and maybe ridden quieter, she could get over these late. RP $4, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Equinox  needs to have a run for his 2000 Guineas attempt, but he is nowhere near as good on a slow or worse track, so the $1.50 is too short.

3.Green Hero  won well on debut but hung out all the way. Drawn the inside here and should be on the pace again but that race inexperience could tell.

Race 2

The speed map shows no obvious leader and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

9.Pearlescence  won easily in this grade last start and has won here over 1400m on a heavy track. Looks stronger now and even though the tempo could be against her, she just needs a good track into it and she will be hard to beat. RP $3.50

Dangers:

5.Estafania ran on last start as though 1950m will suit now- gets 4kgs off again.

Race 3

The speed map shows six runners going forward to try and lead or be close to it ensuring an even tempo at least.

Confidence: 1/5

5.She’s A Smash Hit  has progressively got better. She won strongly from in front last start in a better time than the R65s. She maps to lead or be outside it and from there, she can lead after turning in and with 3kgs off again, be hard to run down. RP $4, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

10.Greyvee will relish the heavy track more than most.

1.Fastellie did well off a tough run last start. Drawn to get a better run.

 

Race 4

The speed map shows good early pace from Stacey Ann, Neeson, Admiral and Secret Squirrel, so an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

9.Torre Del Greco  two starts back ran a strong closing second to the handy Deerfield on a heavy track, then last week, got back off a moderate tempo and was doing his best work late. Sets up nicely here for him where he should settle off the pace with the decent tempo likely, and get over these late on the heavy track. RP $5, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Inscription is a good mare and has won here. Quiet trial and is the main danger.

5.Secret Squirrel  drawn wide and will have to do extra work, and is vulnerable in a fast run 1400m.

Race 5

The Speed map shows Tweedledee likely to lead with My Gift out wide wanting to slide forward to get 2nd outer and a moderate to even tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Verry Flash won really well here over 2200m off a 7 day back up on a heavy 10 handling the ground well . Needed last week’s run and was nice through the line over the 1600m and backs up again off the 7 day run. he lost a show and has had some bruising, so there is a question mark over him. Still nicely weighted and ticks a few boxes. RP $4, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

6.Cossack Warrior is a good horse and won well fresh up. Drawn wide which may be a plus by this time of day.

4.Charlie Horse solid third last week and back on a heavy track will suit.

9.Obsessive  ran a solid third here behind Verry Flash. Will be improved by that fresh up run and relishes a heavy track.

Race 6

The Speed map shows four runners looking to lead or be on it with plenty looking to settle behind them, so at least an even tempo likely.

Confidence:1/5

2.Ritani  is a good mare who has won fresh up. A slow track will suit and gets 2kgs off. RP $5

Dangers:

4.Mr Universe ran home well fresh up and the blinkers go on. Good tempo will suit. Slow track not idea but if he can get to a fast lane, could swamp them.

1.Justacanta won really well last start. Inside draw may be against but 3kgs off helps.

7.Wisdom patch  racing well and just needs luck.

Race 7

The speed map shows seven runners looking to lead or be on it. So it sets up for a closer who has drawn to get out wide.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Midnight Runner  won an open handicap sprint at Ellerslie carrying 58kgs with Opie on. He has won on heavy tracks and should be able to keep away from the inside which is likely to be off off and with Opie on again after a close second fresh up, could do it. RP $4.70

Dangers:

3.Princess Keruru won fresh up at this meeting last year. Finished full of running in a recent trial. Won and placed in stronger sprint fields and is the main danger although a Slow track won’t help.

4.Santa Monica  ran a good fifth in this last year and went on to win the Railway. If inside is ok, should be in this.

8.Pop Star Princess showed more strength last start leading all the way into a head wind. Could lead and get a break on the rail on the turn and be hard to catch.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

2.New York Jazz hit the line hard late last start and 1400m suits now. gets 3kgs off and if they are getting out wider to win, he can do it. RP $4.00, $6 FF

Dangers:

1.Gobuyit ran a game second last start and if the inside is ok, should be in it.

13.Touch Of Silver goes well here and ran a good third last start. The upsetter.

6.Parisian won well last start. This is tougher though but is very fit and should be able to get to the better part of the track.

Ashburton

Dead 4 and with 10mm of rain forecast likely to be a Slow 7 at worst.

Race 8

The speed  map shows  four runners going forward and an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Okay Pal ( Michael Pitman has a very high opinion of this horse- maybe the best he has had! ) looked good winning his trial and on debut when he drew wide, sped across to lead, relaxed well and ran away to win easily. The time was ok compared to better class races and this is a decent step up in class. His first 400m and last 200m were faster than Saber’s who won the Open sprint and he relaxed well in between. He is an athletic looking horse and looked very fit last start, so the 1400m looks ideal. His dam, Sun Valley, won 7 races with one on a heavy track leading all the way over 1600m. His dam, Dissident, is by Sebring, a noted sire of horses that handle wet tracks, and his action says he will relish it, so he can win this on a wet track. RP $4, $6 FF

Dangers:

10.On Show  won really well at Trentham on a Slow 7 track and has an ideal action for a heavy track. Racing well in harder fields and 1400m should suit with Lisa Allpress up.

5.Miss Federer showed her will to win and her ability when winning at new Plymouth last campaign. She sat three wide on an even tempo and was still able to win well in a good speed rating as a two year old. She was a solid 2nd fresh up when she needed the run. Then second up led over 1200m at Riccarton and kept going strongly to win well down on the rail away from others. The step to 1400m looks ideal as she is tough. Maps to get out and lead early on the rail with the two inside looking to get a sit. Okay Pal has shown the early speed to get over 2nd outer or even take the lead. So either way, she should get every chance and with her race fitness edge and toughness, she can beat these. But a heavy 10 track now takes her advantage away

11.Bronte Beach  has been running on over shorter distances and 1400m on a heavy track will suit third up.

7.Kali was a bit stiff last start at Hastings when held up. Drawn wide and will need luck to beat a couple of these. Heavy track is not going to suit her.

6.Folk Dress did well off a wide run fresh up. 1400m suits and should get a good run.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!