Update: No further bets. Statuesquely opened at $2.30 after another scratching this morning, so rated price changed to $1.60 still making it 4.2 units at $2.30
We are in for a feast of racing on both sides of the Tasman right through until Monday. Three meetings in NZ on Saturday- how strange that is that with nothing on Sunday! I just don’t understand why we compete meetings against each other like this, especially on a long weekend, when people are looking for an excuse to go the races on a Sunday. I’ve previewed a few races here and in Australia. I’ll post an update by noon with any head to head or other bets. The review of Randwick from Saturday can be seen here
Bet of the day Oamaru Race 1 1.Rocanto $1.75 FF 1st $1.80
Value bet of the day Sydney Warwick Farm race 1 10.Irish Angel $6FF ( Quality bet 1.5 units at $6 FF )
Speed map Special Sydney Warwick farm Race 3 6.Statuesquely $2.30 FF ( Quality bet 4.2 units at $2.30 FF )
Sneaky of the day Warwick Farm race 4 8.Costas $6 FF
$50 back in Bonus bets race is on Race 1 ( Must be a final field bet up to $50 and you must use the bonus bet money the same day )
The speed map shows Mamma Sans and Rocanto likely to share a moderate tempo
Confidence: 4/5 where Rocanto just looks a class or three above this lot.
1.Rocanto has a a best FR ( Formpro Rating) of 111 which he got when 4.8L off the winner in the last Telegraph. He gets in here on 56kgs, 2kgs over the minimum. The other three are fresh up and he has two runs under his belt. His last a strong second to Saber in the best speed rating all day. The query is his lack of form on heavy tracks. He did run third to Indecision and the Railway winner, Santa Monica on a heavy 10 run in 1.13.5. His action says he prefers better ground but getting first use of this where he maps to lead or sit outside Mamma Sans and be a sprint home , plus getting first use of the track, means he ticks a lot more boxes than the other three. RP $1.50, $1.75 Ff and hard to see him being last so is a good bet to win and if he runs 2nd or 3rd, you get your money back as bonus bets.
10.Mah Girl has been racing like she really needs a middle distance now as she has been winding up well on the turns and finding the line strongly. She gets 2kgs off and unlike some of these, has an ideal action for a heavy track. Nice eachway chance. RP $6, $8.50
9.Figameout was relegated last start and looks the best quinella chance. 1.Big Wink will be improved by that last run being his first over ground. Big striding galloper.
10.Irish Angel looks well placed here. She raced against Funstar ok last campaign after a strong finishing fourth. Had a spell, trailed nicely from an inside gate to trail and wasn’t pushed. Fresh up drew wide, snagged, and ran home strongly wide out in the fastest last 200m of the race in the best speed rating of the day. Waller trained and drawn to get a good run about 4th or 5th with James Mac on, and she is a very nice galloper. She has a nice weight advantage and looks good value to to win the opener. RP $4.00, $6 FF
6.Statuesquely looked good last campaign winning her two races from in front in good speed ratings. She has had two trials to get her ready and finished third in the last one behind much better performed horses under a grip. She maps to lead these and get an uncontested one, and the way she pins her ears back and gives it 100%, she is going to be very hard to run down. RP $1.70, $2.60 Ff in from $3 FF. Early money for a Waterhouse /Bott runner is always a strong tick. RP $1.60, $2.30 FF
4.Sakura looked good winning last start but the speed rating was just average against a weaker field and she is likely be at least 3 lengths of Statuesquely on the turn, and with the weight advantage and her tenacity, she should hold her and the rest out.
Race 4 5.50 p.m.
8.Costas ran a nice quiet typical Waller trial in a strong field then fresh up drew wide, snagged back and had to come the widest of all of them and found the line hard for sixth. His closing 800m was the same as the winner who got all the favours 3 back inner and his last 200m of 11.54, just 0.02 seconds slower than the winners and he covered about 3 lengths more. Last campaign he won fresh up over 1600m leading all the way in a good speed rating. He is well placed here to land in the first four with the favourite at the back. With a moderate tempo likely, and his weight advantage, Waller looks like nailing another well placed winner. RP $4.00, $6 FF
Race 5 6.30 p.m.
3.Turnbull looks well placed third up after closing strongly when clear for second last start in a very good time. He is peaking now third up and the only negative is he can be slow away at times, but if he begins like he has shown at times, he should land 3 back inner behind an even to fast tempo, which he needs to get over these, and be hard to keep out. ( Scratched from race 7 with a wide draw and harder field there) RP $2.60, $3 FF
Race 6 5.20 p.m.
Two very good horses should fight this out, 2.Harbour Views 1st $1.80 and 8.Impi and the market sees it that way too.
3.Prince Of Arran 1st $4 looks the obvious one after his strong second to The Chosen One last start. He should get a good drag across from the wide draw and is a justified favourite, but no anchor.
6.Grey Lion on a Good track can upset- certainly has the ability.
8.Steel Prince third up with Olly up can do it. Beat Surprise Baby over 2800m at Flemington last campaign.
11.Supernova has to be in quaddies as he beat home Wolfe last start and he won next up.
2.Long Jack 1st $6 finally gets out to a distance he will relish. Baker/Forsman have given him three runs now in oz and things just haven’t gone his way since winning 3 wide in the open fresh up. He needs a race with good pace in it, as he has drawn wide, and gets that here. Damian Lane has been on him in all three starts now and this is the day he needs to win. Blinkers on too. Great ride to get him home following the right horse.
4.Southern Moon unlucky at Flemington two back and soft win last start. Wide draw a negative but nice horse.
1.Whispered will be in front of the other two 400m out and he drops out of an easier race. Cummings trained and has to be in quaddies.
3.Relucent has been looking for more ground and gets it from a good draw from the Waller stable.
Open leg- go wide.
In order: 11 1st $4 quaddie $294 -3-4-2-5-7-6