Home » Results » Saturday 26 October 2019 below

Saturday 26 October 2019 below


update: no further bets

Good morning,

Ellerslie has come back to a Dead 5 which is great. Trentham is a Heavy 11 and is always tough going there on a track like that. Only one horse I can select with any confidence there at some kind of value. And Riccarton is a Slow 7 which is the trickiest kind of track condition this time of year not knowing if dry trackers will handle it or wet trackers will have it wet enough. I’ll post an update by 11 a.m.

Bet of the Day The Valley Race 9 9.Lys Gracieux $$3.50 FF Quality bet 2.6 units 1st $3.60 9.1 units returned for 6.5 unit net profit.

Value bet of the day Ellerslie Race 8 7.Travelling Light $4.80 FF 1st $3.60 

Speed map special Trentham race 2 6.Casino El Jay $3.80 FF

Sneaky of the day Ellerslie race 5 12.Anneofpaisley $8.50 FF

The GOAT’s best sports bets are: South Canterbury to win $1.87 to play Sunday and Wanganui $1.57 No 

Lloyd won this week’s Heads Up multi question and his multi is Travelling Light $4.60 and Lys Gracieux $3.50 to return $322 Yes- well done Lloyd

Heads Up below.

 

Early preview

Two Quality bets so far for Saturday: Ellerslie race 6 6. The Mitigator $5.50 3.6 units and The Valley race 9 9.Lys Gracieux 2.6 units at $3.50 FF

Ellerslie

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

15. Two Illicit closed off strongly on debut for third and with a better draw, can improve on that.  RP $3.40, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

3.Quiz Kid  has shown the ability to win at least a maiden.

5.Clever Approach drawn to get a good run and 1400m suits now.

Race 2

A tricky race best watched.

Race 3

The speed map shows

Confidence: 2/5

5.Zenntari did very well last start doing the most work in the race when back, improving wide 800m out and fought well for third. 2400m suits and with a good ride, can do it. RP $5, $8.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Lucetta has had a couple of runs now and will be fitter- just needs a Dead or better surface to show her best.

2.Hunua Hank  is always worth a place chance.

Race  4

Confidence: 2/5

8.Yatima  is racing like she needs a middle distance now. Bred to run a strong 2100m and gets her chance to win again. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

3.Double Happy is in great form with two good wins.Giving weight to a few but with a perfect ride could do it again.

5.Deejay Mac is in the best form of his life and drawn to get his own way in front. Gets 2kgs off and will be hard to run down.

2.Rodolfo  won well last start but carries a fair bit of weight and drawn wide.

 

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

12.Anneofpaisley is a very nice galloper who has a very good action. Has won her two races very well but drawn wide. But with a 3 wide run with cover, can win it. RP $6, $10 FF

Dangers:

11.Jip Jip Rock  looked good last campaign but seemed like she would improve with time. Won her trial well recently and is ready to fire. RP

14.Ladylax  got a soft lead and win last start. Even fitter for this.

2.Braavos has won fresh up and drawn to get all favours.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5 

2.Watch This Space  ran a top second in the Easter here and with 2kgs off. He ran the fastest last 200m of his race at hastings lumping 60kgs and gets 57.5kgs this time. Fitter now from his three runs, he should land in the first six in running and gets his chance to win again. RP $5

Dangers:

10.Battle Time could well lead these and if they leave him alone, with that 51.5kgs, he could upset these.

9.Hanger strong finishing third second up at hastings last start and is always good for a place chance.

1.Supera is the class horse of the field but has bigger targets in mind.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

6.Vigor Winner had no chance last start at Group 1 level when sharing a hot pace 3 wide in the open. He drops back in class here and drawn to land on the pace and with no where near as much pressure this time likely, he can be too good for these. The negative is that was a very hard run last start and he was probably given a few days off to recover and may just need this. RP $3.40, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

10.Tightlign  should be harder to beat now third up and had little chance off a moderate tempo.

13.Clementina  is a nice mare and won well last start. Nicely in at weights.

8.Justamaiz is a quick improver and looked good last campaign.

7.Artiste  closed off hard fresh up running the fastest last 200m all day. Gets 3kgs off.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

7.Travelling Light  1st $3.60  has looked well above average in both of her wins. She put a big gap on a smart colt in Harlech at Matamata.   Drawn to get all favours and be hard to beat again. RP $4.00, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

1.Aretha  just won fresh up but will be improved and the 1400m will suit even better.

3.Bavella almost won fresh up and 1400m will suit now being fitter.

9.Loire two strong finishing thirds so the 1400m will suit now.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

15.Choctoc  has run two solid thirds and is peaking third up now. RP $5

Dangers:

4.Fluorobus  is a nice horse and is ready to fire fresh up after a nice trial win

2.Oratia  nice last campaign and will be even better this time round. Nice draw.

10.Masque  big run fresh up.

11.Decadence  is a nice horse who is ready to go fresh up and the money has come for him.

Trentham

Just the one bet here with the tricky heavy track.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

6.Casino El Jay  almost won last start at Hastings in a race where it favoured on pace runners. She did very well to do that. And the start before won very well on a heavy track running sectionals and a time that tells us she is going to win more races. Strikes an average lot here that have been going round a few times, so looks well placed to win on 54kgs with Lisa Allpress up. The negative is she handled the heavy track at Awapuni well but a heavy 10/11 here or whatever it turns out to be, is different from an Awapuni heavy and has tripped many up. RP $2.90, $$3.80 Ff

The Valley

Race 9 Cox Plate

Confidence: 3/5

9.Lys Gracieux 1ST $2.60 and just a class or three above those.comes here from Japan off an impressive win in amazing time in a Group 1 over 2200m in 2.10.80 right handed and she looks like she will be better left handed. two starts back ran an outstanding third at Sha Tin after a 7 week break over 2000m in a very fast time. She can sustain a very long sprint which is ideal for here.  Plus she is rated the second best Japanese horse! Mer De Glace, who won the Caulfield Cup easily last week, is rated the 47th best! Being a mare, she gets in on 57 kgs and the Australian WFA horses are nothing special this year. So even from a wide gate, with Damian Lane up, she can sit three wide with cover and should still be too good. The fence is very likely to be off by this time of day so drawing wide could be a plus. RP $2.70, $3.50 FF

Suggested quaddie for The Valley

Race 7 $10 for 10% Yes $1302 for $1 units or $130 for 10%

R7   4, 5, 6, 7, 8
R8    1, 3, 10, 12, 13
R9    9
R10    1, 2, 4, 5

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!