Home » Results » Monday October 28 preview below

Monday October 28 preview below

Update: No other bets except a suggested late quaddie for $25.20 for 10%

R6  1, 2, 5, 13
R7   1, 2, 9
R8    2, 8, 11
R9     1, 4, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13

Good morning,

No Quality bets and an update will be posted by noon.

Great to see a Dead 4 posted for Te Rapa. The rail is out 2 metres from true from the last meeting here on October 4th where Money Trail led all the way on the rail in the last race.  There is 2.3mm of rain forecast for this afternoon, which shouldn’t affect it too much, but wait and see if your selections need a dry track. There is also a free login to the Greyhound Ratings for Palmerston North races at  Formpro Ratings here

I’m confident Equinox can win on a Dead 4 with no rain, but I’d like to see how the track is before backing him. I rate him $1.90 chance and we are being offered $2 FF which is not much value. He is likely to drift a little I feel with some nice horses from punting stables in the race.

Bet of the day Te Rapa Race 7 1.Equinox $2 FF Didn’t see out the 1400m

Value bet of the day Te Rapa Race 4 11.Katie Perrie $5.50 Ff 4th after having the toughest run

Speed map Special Te Rapa Race 5 10.Nomoathaj $4.80 Ff

Sneaky of the day Te Rapa Race 1 6.Hattie Bee $8.50 FF and it is a Spring Loaded race where you can back her up to $50 FF and if she doesn’t win and she doesn’t finish last, you get your money back in bonus bets, which has to be spent today.

Te Rapa

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5 

6.Hattie Bee ran a close second here in an R72 race over 2400m. Last start second up, she ran on late in a stronger R72 field at Hastings. She looks to have strengthened up as well. Drops in class third up, and from the good draw, should land midfield, and be a nice eachway chance. RP $5, $8.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Mighty Connor  is fitter now and needs more ground.

7.Mood  really let down fast late to win her maiden beating handy horses. She was blackbooked before that run and can place.

8.Uabasso has been backed in early from $5 to $4.20 but seems to make a habit of not winning, so no value.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Baby Face has proved costly for punters but third up to 1600m looks ideal now. RP $3.50, $3.60 FF

Dangers: 

14.Ranger also third up and ready to win.

15.Wild West drawn wide which means he’ll have to work early. Needs luck.

18.Torque Straight  was close up fresh up and drawn to get an ideal run.

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

6.Soft Hearted two strong seconds and peaking now. Drawn to get every chance and be the one to beat. RP $3.50, $4.20

Dangers:

16.Miradello looks the obvious danger.

14.Scorpz has ability and can be in it.

19.Dragon Leap also has shown enough to be in trifectas.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

11.Katie Perrie fresh up sweated a lot but still ran a game second. Then next start, looked fitter and again ran a game second over 1600m beating Yatima ( 3rd) who ran a strong second on Saturday. She won fourth up last campaign stepping to a middle distance for the first time. She also ran a strong finishing 4th at Ellerslie in the Dunstan feeds Final behind three good horses. Just needs a good ride from the wide gate to win. RP $3.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers: 

2.Felaar ran on ok second up over 1600m and the extra ground will obvious suit. Will likely need this so hard to take the $5.50 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

10.Nomoathaj  has run two solid thirds and has the blinkers going on just to sharpen her up. Drawn ideally to trail and be the one to beat. RP $4.50

Dangers:

11.Dance Card  looked a definite improver from her fresh up run here.

4.Zamax awkward draw but with a good ride from Opie, should fight this out.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

5.Pimms ‘N’ Pearls ran a game second fresh up fighting back for second. She looks stronger now and Ross McCarroll’s stable is firing. Gets 2kgs off and she has the early speed to land in the first four and being fitter now, should be hard to beat. RP $3.40, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

13.Heart Of Stone  was heavily punted fresh up but from a wide draw, was always up against it. Will be improved by that and with a good run, can be in it.

2.Virtuoso Lad  is a nice horse and when given a good run, can win.

1.Exuberant  gets 3kgs off and with a clean beginning from a wide draw, should be in it.

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

1.Equinox looks ideally placed here on a Dead 4 or better track- the niggly negative is the showers that are forecast. If there is one horse that could beat Catalyst if he gets a bad run in the 2000 Guineas, this is the horse. His fresh up run for second to Catalyst at Hastings was excellent. He was caught 3 wide in the open on an even tempo and worked to get second in the early part of the straight and did well to hold second. He looked in need of that run as well. Then he bolted in on a heavy track surface he just handled at Rotorua. So third up and using this as his lead in to the 200 Guineas, he has drawn ideally to lead and I can’t see a lot of pressure, soOpie who knows him well now,  should prove too fast and too strong for these. RP $1.80, $2.00 FF

Dangers: 

2.Harlech  ran a good second to Travelling Light on a  heavy track last start and she won really well on Saturday. Has a very good action and can run the quinella from the good draw.

9.Chiaretta  impressed winning here fresh up over 1200m in good time and sectionals. The 1400m suits and with a good run, will be in this.

13.Cinzento  had to be good to win last start when pushed wide on the tight turn at Taupo. Can run sectionals and 1400m will suit.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

8.Concert Hall is a very good mare who just needs a decent surface to win as she can unleash a powerful last 200 metres. So keep an eye on the weather. A Dead 5 or better will suit. She maps to get a good run about midfield behind an even tempo and with 54kgs, get over these. The negative is the 36 day break but she bolted in fresh up last campaign over 1400m at Pukekohe. RP $3.20, $3.30 FF

Dangers: 

2.True Enough  got the ideal run last start and won well. He won 4 in a row last campaign and drawn to be in a winning position again.

11.Cutting up Rough  is a realistic upset chance. he has won his last two very well and he has a nice action and maps to get an ideal run with just 52kgs on his back.

4.Magnum  top 4th last start and ready to win now. The query is the 1600m in a genuinely run 1600m with 57kgs.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5 in an even go.

7.Masetto looks a good improver after a strong second fresh up. Looks the part and with a good ride, can win. RP $4

Dangers:

8.Polzeath  could lead them a merry chase and if the inside is ok, could hold on.

4.Savvy Yong Blonk  with 3kgs off third up, could do it if they go too hard.

13.Steven James fitter now and could upset.

12.Spring Delight  looked good last campaign and after winning her trial easily from the front recently, she looks even stronger now.

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!