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Wednesday preview below

Update 11.25 a.m.

Suggested late quaddie for $19 for 5%

R6   3, 5, 6, 9, 10
R7    3, 4, 5, 7, 10
R8    1, 3, 5, 7, 8
R9    1, 11, 13

Bendigo suggested quaddie for $34 for 5% Yes $50 returned

R7    3, 4, 6, 9
R8    1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 14
R9     1, 4, 12
R10    1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10

 

Good morning,

Good to see a decent surface and fine weather forecast. It is a bit like trying to find hen’s teeth looking for value here. So no Quality bets.

I’ll post an update by noon.

Bet of the day Race 3 9.Tabata $1.65 2nd

Value bet of the day Race 9 11.Patch Prince $4.60 FF

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

1.Prince Albert rated strongly at Ellerslie against race winner when fourth there. Fitter for two runs back and strikes an average lot. RP $3.00, $3.40 FF

Dangers: 

11.Two Madison was strongly backed in last start and just went down. may be better this way round and fitter now.

13.Sweet Sereia drawn to get a good run and solid third last start.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

8.Ludus  should have won fresh up with a soft lead but was run down by the favourite and a nice horse. Back to 1400m looks ideal and drawn to get all favours. RP $2.70, $2.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Jimmy Jones  looks the only one capable of downing her- strong second in good time second up last campaign.

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

9.Tabata  really closed off hard late for fourth on debut over 1200m on a tighter track. 1400m looks ideal on this roomier track. Drawn to land closer and strikes a beatable lot. RP $1.80, $1.65 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

2.Krakadeel  drawn to get every chance and looks the main chance.

Dangers:

4.Butterfield obvious chance but drawn wide too so no value at $3.50 .

Race 5

Tricky race- in order: 3-1-7-9

Race 6

Early speed from 2-8-9-11 and an even to moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

9.Zenvo  has won both of races here very well. Won her August trial nicely and her last trial was caught wide and wasn’t pushed but held her place. Drawn to get a good trip trailing or 3 back inner and get her chance fresh up. RP $5

Dangers:

6.Pierina  closed off strong for third fresh up with her head to the side and will be better suited right handed here. Drawn to get the right run and 1400m suits now.

3.Verbalizer  won well second up at Ellerslie over 1400m in a good field. Good run fresh.

10.Miss Valencia drawn to get all favours and looks stronger now – good 3rd fresh up.

Other thoughts:

8.Petrachor  won both of her races well but in below average speed ratings and battled at Hastings for fifth. needs a perfect ride to get into this.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

7.Highlighter ran a strong third on debut and looks a natural improver. The tighter track didn’t suit on debut so right handed on a bigger track will. RP $3.50

Dangers:

3.Cheers has shown enough to be in this fresh with 2kgs off.

5.Devin  has looked nice at the trials and is ready to fire up on debut. Had the ear covers on but they aren’t down in the gear change list and were not listed in her trial.

10.Origineel  two quiet trials and drawn well – stable usually has then ready on debut.

Other thoughts:

4.Kate Louise  is in foal and it seems to have helped her as she led all the way in a recent trial. She has also changed stables so could upset.

Race 8

Early speed from 2-3-5-6-13 and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

5.Flourishing  is a good mare and is ready to fire fresh. Drew wide in her recent trial, snagged to last and ran on nicely after getting clear- ready. Gets 2kgs off and is likely to slide forward.

Dangers:

7.Van Blanc  is going to win more races. Freshened up for this. Needs a good ride.

8.Craftyeva  has won twice fresh up and could make it three with a bit of luck.

1.Lincoln King  good fresh up. If they go hard, could swamp them.

Other thoughts:

3.Military Step  was a drifter in betting  fresh up and raced like it. easy win at Wanganui and Opie replaced the apprentice. If money comes for him, he will be hard to beat.

11.Trumpet  ran on ok on a heavy track fresh up. Needs a better track and beat Soda and Just Treasure over 1600m at Pukekohe last campaign and both have gone on with it.

12.Shebringsmerubies just got up in a slowish speed rating last start. Opie jumps off onto military Step and she is up in class, so $4.20 FF is too short

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

11.Patch Prince  was a bit stiff fresh up when he had a bit to offer but no gaps in front of him. Ran a good third last campaign in a handy two year old race. Ear covers go on pre-race and from the handy draw, and he should settle handier and looks to have the ability to win at least a maiden. Looks better right handed too. RP $3.00

Dangers:

1.Ihu  did well last start working for the lead and fought well for second. The race time was similar to the R65 race the same day ( all the times there that day were well out). If he can lead easier and get a soft time, which looks likely, he is the one Patch has to beat.

13.Show The Love solid second last start in front of Patch Prince but a well beaten second. Fitter third up and drawn well with 3kgs off.

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!