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Tuesday Melbourne Cup day preview below

Good morning,

The race that stops a nation has arrived! I’m fairly keen on Vow And Declare for an interest bet, but from a serious betting point of view, you wouldn’t even consider betting in the race with so many different formlines and the 3200m being an unknown for so many. For newer subscribers, the races you should concentrate your serious betting on are races I rate with  ‘Good Confidence’  3/5, 4/5 or 5/5 which is indicated in most races I preview. The Quality bets, which have made consistently very good profits, are based on those selections when they are at value prices. For example, Exceedance RP ( Rated Price)  $1.70 and available around $4,  and Kolding RP $3 and was available between $5 and $7 from Saturday were two horses we made very good money off in the weekend. Qiji Dancer at Pukekohe on Saturday, was rated $2.40 and was only paying $2.50 before the start, so was no value, but was positively ridden by Matt Cameron and won easily. She rated $2.40 because of her draw, where she was likely to get back, and lack of pace in the race. So we are going to have selections rated with ‘Good Confidence’ that win but are no value. But believe me, I was almost sent broke trying to back favourites in my early twenties but were just too short. That’s when I realised that the way to make money off racing is to hunt down the value runners and the only way you could do that was to try and evaluate it’s true odds of winning and express that as a Rated Price. But if you just want to spend a weekly affordable amount on punting, then I provide selections for other races on most North Island meetings.

I’ll post an update by noon

Enjoy the sometimes bumpy ride.

Neil

Bet of the day Ellerslie Race 2 12.Ranger $2.70 after opening at $3.80 FF 3rd after racing a bit keenly

Value bet of the day Ellerslie race 9 7.Rendition $4.60 Ff after opening at $6 FF 5th after blowing the start.

Speed map Special Ellerslie race 6 6.Viktor Vegas $6.50 FF

Sneaky of the day Melbourne Cup Race 7 23.Vow And Declare $11 FF 1st 

 

Posted 5 p.m. Monday

There are two Quality bets detailed below:

Ellerslie Race 2 12.Ranger $3.20 5 units

Ellerslie race 9 7.Rendition $4.80 Ff 3.2 units

 

Melbourne Cup

Race 7 5 p.m.

Confidence: 2/5

23.Vow And Declare 1st $11 after a 10/10 ride from Craig Williams ran an ideal race in the Caulfield Cup for this and I felt he was going stronger, after having to do more work, than Constantinople on the line. He bolted in when he won the 3000m Tattersalls Cup. Granted it was weaker but he was travelling like the winner well out and he looks bigger and stronger now. Drawn out but that just means in-form rider Craig Williams won’t get trapped in and he a master at doing his homework and will find the right horse to get on the backside of back in the field. I’m picking the inside will be off by this time of day, and the roomier track will suit him ideally. He beat Junipal here showing a real will to win. if it comes down to a dog fight in the straight, he won’t flinch first, especially with the light weight. His action says any rain will only help him and hinder others. RP $7, $11 FF

Ellerslie

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

8.Clementina is looking for more ground now. Nice finish last start. Maps to get a cosy trip on a moderate tempo and weighted to be hard to beat. RP $3.20, $3.40 FF

Dangers:

7.Star Karen fitter now and closed off hard here last start. Needs more ground now.

6.Deejay Mac  could get a soft lead and be hard to run down.

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet

12.Ranger ran second here in the Champagne Stakes over 1600m behind Quick Thinker who raced in Australia. Fresh up he fought well for third behind Callsign Mav and Swords Drawn, two good horses who went on to strong form. Second up led on a good tempo and was run down on a slow track. Last start led then eased 5th behind a solid tempo, loomed up and led 300m out and was run down late by the nice filly Baby Face. The sectional splits and time were very strong compared to better class races on the day. Drawn to get an ideal run on the pace, and very fit now. The Good track is also ideal and he also rates 4 lengths clear of this field in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments and when that happens and there are a few other ticks, they usually win or go very close. RP $1.90, $3.20 FF after opening at $3.80 FF ( 5 units for the Value staking plan at $3.20 FF )

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

4.Vainglory rates well on a Dead to good track and ran a strong third here last start. 2400m suits. RP $5

Dangers:

3.Pearlescence has won her last two well. Lack of tempo may be against though.

10.Unacceptable closed off hard here last start and the improved track helps.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

1.Bit Lippy  drops back in class and gets 3kgs off. Tough run last start. Better track suits. RP $6, $11 FF

 Dangers:

11.Kylie Bax  won well last start. Stronger and drawn well with Opie up.

 2.New York Jazz  is a nice horse and with a good run likely, should be in this.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

3.Cyber Attack won impressively fresh up in may and did ok in oz. Trialed up nicely and drawn to be the one to beat. RP $4

Dangers:

11.Spring Heat has had a good break and three trials. Drawn to get a cosy trip.

6.Speedy Meady  has the ability to be right in this. Fitter now.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

6.Viktor Vegas closed off fast here last start in the fastest closing sectionals all day. Fitter and drawn to be the one to beat. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

4.Aim Smart  a good horse and won well fresh up. Should be able cross over and be the one Viktor Vegas has to hunt down

Race 7

The speed map shows Saint Emilion likely to try and lead all the way again in this race.

Confidence: 3/5

8.Concert Hall is fourth up and ready for 2000m now. She relaxes well and has shown a terrific turn of foot off slow and fast tempos. She should land about 7th or 8th and matt Cameron knows what she is capable of doing and just needs to get a track into it, to allow her to get over these. RP $2.40, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

1.Peso  ran a top race for second to Melody Belle last start. He goes ok this way and maps to get a good run. Negative is the 4 week break and giving Concert Hall 2kgs.

9.Fiscal Fantasy with a good run likely, can place.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

3.Cutadeel  has been freshened up since winning at Hastings then running an ok 8th at WFA last start. Drawn to get a good run and on the fresh side again, is the one to beat.

Dangers:

6.Go Nicholas  won well here last start and with a good run and 2kgs off, looks the main danger.

1.Watch This Space  had no chance with the tough run last start. Gets 3kgs off here and with a better run, can be in it.

4.Aligns With Me could swamp them if they go too hard.

Race 9

Confidence: 3/5

7.Rendition has been aimed at this $30,000 maiden 3yo race. Last campaign she ran some very good races in handy fields. In fact she ran a closing third to Ranger here after getting squeezed up early and losing a few lengths. She looked a bit weak though but after seeing her trial at Avondale, where she began on terms, snagged off a slow tempo, and cruised on by to win very well, Peter and Dawn Williams have her ready to fire fresh up in a good race. Drawn to land in the first six and Rosie will give her every chance. RP $3.00, $4.80 FF ( 3.2 units at $4.80 F F ) She has been backed in from $6 which is always a good sign from this very good stable.

Race 10

Confidence: 3/5

1.Swords Drawn got an ideal run last start and won easing down and is going to win more races. This is no harder and Opie has drawn to get into a good position with his tactical speed and be the one to beat again. RP $2.40, $2.20 FF

Dangers:

11.Deels Done was held up at a vital stage last start and ran home strongly for third.

3.Germanicus strong Hastings form but drawn wide and needs luck.

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!