Home » Results » Wednesday preview below

Wednesday preview below

Avondale

One Quality bet in race 6 12.Shenanigans $2.80 FF 4.2 units. 11.7 units returned for a 7.5 unit net profit  with a perfect ride from Ryan Elliot.

 

Good morning,

It looks like a day for the favoured runners. I’m very keen on the chances on Shenanigans in race 6 and I very rarely make a debut runner a Quality bet, but I’ll make an exception in his case, as I feel he is going to win a few races.

Bet of the day Race 6 12.Shenanigans $2.80 FF 1st $2.60

Multi of the day Race 1 1.Sagunto $2.00 into Shenanigans $56 returned for every $10 Yes- reduced to $49.80 after deductions for a late scratching in race 1.

 

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

1.Sagunto has been racing well in stronger fields and worked hard early last start over 1600m and stuck on well for fourth. Very fit and should get an uncontested lead and with the blinkers going on will be very hard to run down. RP $2.20, $2.00 Ff

Dangers:

3.Etch needs 2000m now and ran a strong third here last campaign.

6.Meant To Be Ram a nice race last start in an R65 field and a better track suits.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

5.Enrichment strong second last campaign in stronger field than this. Trailed up well when running home well for third from a wide draw.

Strikes the right field to win. RP $1.90, $1.60 Ff

Dangers:

2.Foo An Sings has shown enough to say he can run a good race and trialed better with the noseband in recently here.

Race 3

Confidence; 3/5

1.Showbeel   looked a nice galloper last campaign running home strongly for fifth at Ellerslie, ( running the second best closing sectionals behind Long Jack),  among horses that have gone on with it like Long Jack and Sherwood Forest. She looked like she had strengthened up in her recent trial when bouncing to the lead and wasn’t pushed to run second. Murray Baker said he though quite a bit of this filly before that run at Ellerslie. From the handy barrier, Matt Cameron should be able to land her in the first five and from there be the one to beat. RP $2.60, $2.90 FF

Dangers: 

4.Showoroses ran a close second here on debut and looked good winning her trial here recently. Wide draw is the negative but with a good run, is the main danger.

2.O’Charm  is ready to go fresh up after two good trial wins. Wide draw the negative.

8.Combat Queen  makes her debut for Boys Get Paid and ran a better trial recently on the pace. Strikes a couple of handy fillies here so a placing would nice.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

8.Birdsong looked very good winning on debut in a good speed rating beating nice horses like Harlech. Fresh up at Hastings in a strong 3yo fillies race she missed the jump slightly and got squeezed back to last. She was in a pocket and in a sprint home Opie didn’t persevere with her. With a clean beginning here she can lead and 1400m will suit. RP $3.50

Dangers: 

1.Looks Like  won well at Pukekohe and drawn to get all favours.

7.Petrabella won well here on debut over 1400m. Cruisy recent third in a trial here. Likely to get back and rely on a decent tempo which she may not get.

4.Seconds Out  hasn’t won for a long time but does enough to say he can place fresh up here.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

3.Oratia is a well bred mare and won well here over 1600m. Fresh up she got back and ran home well in the fastest last 400 and 200 of the race. If she can secure the trail here, probably behind Palamedes, and in a  race where they aren’t likely to go hard, she can get out and drive home the best with Matt Cameron the right rider for her. RP $3.00, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

5.Palamedes  may get an uncontested lead here and if she does, be hard to run down.

1.Mercy Hill  ran second here in a sprint home. She has drawn 6 of 6 here and with a bit of speed under her early, she may snag to 6th outer and with a sit sprint likely, she could get outsprinted again, so the $1.65 is too short.

Race 6

Confidence:3/5 in a really interesting race. These two riders I’m sure will be keeping a close eye on each other. Quality bet.

12.Shenanigans  is probably the best bred horse here being a half sister to the top mare Shillelagh who raced in Group company in Australia. He certainly has the looks and galloping action to say he could be a good horse. His last trial he relaxed well and traveled nicely until he was asked to go and he let down powerfully without being asked for a full effort. In his first trial he won well beating horses that have gone onto good form. Ryan Elliot is riding with great judgement and from the good draw, I can see him settling in the first six and with his main danger, Sword Of Freedom, being near him, he will make sure he does everything he can to hold him in and time his run to win this. Rp $2.00, $2.80 FF 4.2 units

Dangers:

13.Sword Of Freedom  is a nice looking galloper but is a bit one paced and may want a slow track and more ground with his action. Opie is on and will give him every chance.

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

2.Shanqueen ran some strong placings behind some nice horses last campaign. Should land handy and be the one to beat. RP $2.80.

Dangers:

1.Rip Em Up  keeps doing enough to keep punters interested. Likely to get back from the drfaw and need a decent tempo, which she may not get. Won’t get a better chance though.

4.Movinonbye  ran home nicely on debut and gets 3kgs from the inside draw.

11.Sympathique ran home ok fresh up. Blinkers on will help.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Avatar
Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!