Update: 12.55 p.m.
Flemington: two quality bets below
Suggested quaddie for $16 for 20% yes $200 returned
R6 1, 3, 4, 6
R8 1, 3
R9 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15
Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 3 units at $3.20 FF 9.6 units returned for a 6.6 unit net profit.
3.Pancho 1st $3 with a strong win ran a strong closing second to Kubrick in good time over 1600m last start. He is rock hard fit and Chris Waller has found exactly the right race for him in this Listed race over 1800. He is the best rated runner (82 ) in this and at set weights is very well placed to settle midfield or just behind it with the main danger, Russian Camelot, on his inner. Hughy won’t be giving him any favours so he looks well placed here to win. RP $2.10, $3.20 FF ( 3 units a win at $3.20 FF )
Race 8 7.50 p.m.
Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 1.6 units a win and the same for a place – 3.2 units
3.Gamay had her chance and battled away for fifth ran a game second to Celestial Falls here two starts back after having the toughest run in the race over the 1800m. Then last start she had Vegas Jewel covered to win well at Caulfield beating many of these after working early. The rider said she had a bit left in the tank too and isn’t concerned about her staying the Oaks distance of 2500m.She relaxes well, so from the inside draw, she is going to get an ideal run and is a strong eachway chance. I’m not a fan of favourites in this race and I feel Vegas Jewel and Moonlight Maid are going to do more work than Gamay and I’m not convinced they will see the 2500m out strongly anyway. So by a process of elimination, Gamay looks a very good eachway chance. Having Ryan Moore stick around for it just gives me more confidence. RP $3.70, $6 FF and $2.25 Ff ( 1.6 units a win and 1.6 units a place )