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Wednesday preview below

 

Update: Multi of the day

Race 8 Head to head Morweka $1.55 to beat Prince Oz  and Race 10.5.Watch This Space $3.80 to finish in a place which also includes 4th place for this race. $10 returns $58.90

Suggested late quaddie for $15 for 50%

R8     6, 9
R9      1
R10    1, 3, 5
R11     1, 4, 6, 10, 14

Good morning,

No Quality bets so far. Most fields today are bookie benefits, and I’ve previewed the two big races with an update by noon.

You can join in on the Tauranga Punters Club for this Saturday here.

Riccarton

Race 8

The speed map shows Sheezalmine and Morweka has the early speed to slide across and get 2nd outer without burning too much. Johnny Jones and Princess Amelie aren’t as fast as Morweka, especially if she jumps well, but will look to land handy. I can’t see them going faster than an even tempo so it may suit runners in the first half.

Confidence: 2/5

9.Morweka  has been dominant on dry tracks and  has won on a slow and heavy tracks recently. Drawn wide but with a good beginning, can cross to 2nd outer without using much petrol and from there dictate the pace to Sheezalmine and the way she has been kicking, could get a winning break on Sensei with 300 metres to go and be too hard to catch, RP $4

Dangers:

6.Sensei 2nd qu $10 was a dominant winner in an amazing last 600m of 30.97. he got a perfect run in that and had a tail breeze. He maps to be midfield and maybe in the open, so with a tougher run and giving 3kgs to Morweka, that may make all the difference.

3.Prince Oz bolted in here last year in this race with 53kgs and 56.5kgs shouldn’t stop him. Just a wide draw and harder run could.

16.Sheezallmine 1st with a good ride $9 qu $10  from the inside draw should do the least work in the race and place from there.

 

Race 10

The speed map shows True Enough, Camino Rocoso, and Vigor Winner going  forward with Shadows Cast looking to slide forward but the trainer has said he would be happy for him to ride him off the speed, so he could be caught wide in the open or with cover.  True Enough will very likely hand up to Shadows Cast or Vigor Winner but not Camino Rocosso. A moderate to even tempo at best likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

 

Confidence: 2/5 With True Enough getting every chance to win and Watch This Space a great each way bet at odds.

3.True Enough 1st $4 and got that winning run which made all the difference   has rated 113 at his last three starts and only needs to rate 112 to win this on 54kgs. I feel he could easily have rated an FR 114 with clearer runs.  With only had 17 starts you would think he should be able to improve on his best rating third up, especially from this stable. Last start he got a nice quiet run behind a moderate tempo and once clear 150m out, drove hard to almost win giving 5kgs to the others, including Concert Hall, who flashed late for 4th at Ellerslie off a slow tempo next up in a strong field. At Tauranga he was an unlucky third to Volpe Veloce rating 113 in good time over 1600m with 55kgs at the end of his campaign.  He confidently maps to get a winning run from the draw and third up from the Baker/Forsman stable, he will be at peak for this. So my adjusted rating for him for this is 114, so he needs to rate 112 to win, so he’s a +2 RP $3.20, $3.60 FF

Dangers: 

5.Watch This Space  ran a strong second in a stronger Easter earlier this year rating 115 with 55kgs, 3kgs over the minimum.. He has been below that level this campaign but drops to 53kgs, His lightest weight for a long time. Very good trainer in Wayne Hillis and he would not come this far unless he was confident he was at his best. At Tauranga he beat home True Enough with 0.5kgs more  weight than him. Three starts back at Hastings he ran 2.8L behind True Enough with 60kgs giving him 3kgs, and there is a 4kgs swing in his favour this time from a good draw. With the three fastest times over 1600m in this field, I project his FR  to be 113 and he needs to rate 111 to win this on 53kgs, so +2 His two recent runs haven’t been run to suit and from the good draw, should get every chance. He is the best double figure chance in the field.

1.Shadows Cast put in a top class effort last start to win with 63kgs, 9 kgs over the minimum, rating an FR of 114. Before that he rated 116 three times in a row. He needs to rate 115 to win this and we know he can do that if he gets a decent run but that is not a given from the wide draw and the statement from the trainer about happy for him to take a sit.  He won this race two years ago on 52kgs. That wide draw with the 59kgs giving good weight to others is a negative, so I project his rating to be 113, and he needs to rate 115 to win, so -2. RP $4, $4.80 FF

9.Sacred Day rated an FR 113 winning the Grafton Cup over 2240m on 54kgs. Likely to get back and rely on a decent tempo which is unlikely and more ground will suit. Projected FR is 109 and needs to rate 110, so -1.

13.Vigor Winner  rated 113 at Hastings, 3.4L behind Shadows Cast at WFA and meets him 6.5kgs better off this time. He was held up late last start at Ellerslie over 1600m but he had his chance before that to take a gap and I have my doubts that he can see out an evenly run 1600m at this level.  Needs to rate 110 to win this and I project his rating as 110 as he should get a good run so 0 for him. 2nd 

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!