Update: ( No Quality bets today )
Head to head Race 4 Luminous $1.65 to beat Big Ben. ( Big Ben having his first start over ground and tends to race keenly over 1600m so with the slower tempo here, he is bound to race too keenly and giving Luminous 3.5kgs and with her appreciating the better ground, means she looks very good value to beat Ben home.
Race 8.Cutting Up Rough $1.65 to beat home Mauna Kea ( See preview below to see why )
Recommended multi for $10 to return $43.50
The above two Head to Heads with Race 5 3.Classclown for a place at $1.60 FF
You can join the Tauranga Punters Club for this Saturday here. I’m going through the form there with a fine tooth comb and I’m determined to do well, but no guarantees.
No Quality bets so far – update by noon.
The track has come back from a Slow 7 yesterday to a Dead 6 this morning but there is rain forecast this morning so if your selection needs a Dead track wait.
I’ve gone through race 8 using the Formpro Ratings to project what FR it will run today and what it needs to run to win. If there is a positive difference, it is well in at the weights taking everything else into account. It worked well with True Enough yesterday as he was rated equal best with a +2 along with Watch This Space who had to cover too much ground.
‘3.True Enough 1st $4 and got that winning run which made all the difference has rated 113 at his last three starts and only needs to rate 112 to win this on 54kgs. I feel he could easily have rated an FR 114 with clearer runs. With only 17 starts you would think he should be able to improve on his best rating third up, especially from this stable. Last start he got a nice quiet run behind a moderate tempo and once clear 150m out, drove hard to almost win giving 5kgs to the others, including Concert Hall, who flashed late for 4th at Ellerslie off a slow tempo next up in a strong field. At Tauranga he was an unlucky third to Volpe Veloce rating 113 in good time over 1600m with 55kgs at the end of his campaign. He confidently maps to get a winning run from the draw and third up from the Baker/Forsman stable, he will be at peak for this. So my adjusted rating for him for this is 114, so he needs to rate 112 to win, so he’s a +2 RP $3.20, $3.60 FF’
Bet of the day Race 3 3.London Express $1.85 Ff
Multi of the day with London Express and Race 5 3.Classclown $3.30 Ff
Value bet of the day Race 8 4.Cutting Up Rough $6 Ff
Suggested late quaddie for 10% for $30
R6 4, 5, 7, 9, 12
R7 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
R8 4, 10
R9 1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 14
4.Transitory two good palcings and drawn to win with Lisa up.
1.Marscapone is the obvious danger from the draw.
5.D’Blues rates well here and didn’t get much room fresh up. Drawn out but with a good ride can do it.
3.Arturo was slow away and did well to get up for 4th last start.
3.London Express has won her last two very well and gets in with 51kgs with the 3kgs off. Looks very hard to beat. RP $1.90, $1.85 FF
4.Skyphyta has run some good races over ground rating strongly on wet tracks. Strong second fresh up and may need one more but can still beat these.
11.Floral Art is a nice horse and looks the main danger.
5.Luminous looked good winning two back. heavy track no good last start. Slow 7 suits better and gets 3kgs off.
10.Dazella won well last start- this is harder.
3.Classclown just went down last start and is going to win a few races. Very fit now and a slow track is ideal. Wide draw, but J Parkes will get over that. RP $3.00, $3.30 FF
7.Miss Contessa drops back from Open handicaps and gets 2kgs off. Likely to lead an if inside is ok, can win.
9.Rufus Ruffcut good run to win two back and solid last start. Even tempo at least will suit and if inside is off, he is the one to beat.
5.Skarloey will be improved by that fresh up 6th and drawn to get a good run.
Include in quaddies: 12 and 4
11.Glimpse drops out of stronger R72 races and J Parkes jumps back on who rode her to win here last year.
8.Whata Red Prince really impressed winning his maiden leading all of the way in faster time than the two R65 races at Waverley. Got back last start and did ok but he looks better on the pace. Drawn to do that here.
12.Just Fabulous looked very good last campaign. Nice second last start and fitter third up. Wide draw no help though.
Include 9 and 10 in quaddies.
NTR 111 on 57kgs
The speed map shows five runners looking to lead or be on it so an even tempo. There may be an outside bias by this time of day with rain forecast on the dead 6 track.
Confidence: 2/5 and would have been 3/5 if I knew how the track was going to play by this time of day with that rain forecast.
The two positive rated horses in this are Cutting Up Rough +1.5 at $6 and Lady Kartel $12 at +1. Both are good value as long as they are running no slower than 1.25 for the previous 1400m race.
4.Cutting Up Rough rated 111 running a fast closing third to Rock On Wood and Shadows Cast, on ANZAC day, which has been franked. Then last start after a 23 day break he rated 110 and almost got up beating home True Enough who won the Couplands yesterday. He maps to get back and be away from the what could be a slower inside and Lisa Allpress will give him every chance. he has won on a slow 7. PFR 111, NTR 109.5, Diff + 1.5 RP $4, $6 FF
10.Lady Kartel got checked midrace losing 3 lengths here last start and did well to finish 2.8L from Shadows Cast. Rated 108 and that can be adjusted to 110 without that check as she fought on very well. Top run before that rating 110 at Hawera for third. Drawn to get a good run maybe 2nd outer or 1×1, and should at least match her 110 ratings. She has won on a Slow 7. PFR 110, NTR 109 Diff + 1
2.Mauna Kea rated 111 with 55.5kgs last start on a heavy 11 track at Trentham. He has won here on a Slow 7 track over this distance. The track is very likely to get back to a Slow 7 or worse with rain about. PFR 111, NTR 112 Diff -1
9.Beauden was beaten by the top horse Rock On Wood here last campaign. He has rated 110 in 3 of his last four starts and should be peaking fourth up now. The query is the likely slow track as all of his 5 wins have been on Dead 4 or better. It will be truly run so he is likely to be vulnerable to closers, especially if they are charging down centre track. The PFR is based on a Slow 7/8 track. PFR 108, NTR 109, Diff -1 ( Should have gone with the Dead track rating of 110 plus 1 for improvement for 11, less NTR 109 for a +2 putting him on top.
7.Collinstreet is a good horse who rated 108 winning at Trentham on heavy 11. He is a horse that is looking for more ground and on a better track that won’t help as they will run along quicker. PFR 106, NTR 108 Diff = -2
8.Mongolianconqueror maps to get back inner and on a Slow 7 or worse track, that won’t be the most ideal place to be.
In order: 8-10-1-14-6-3