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Friday preview below

Update: No further bets. Early Saturday preview here. Next Update by 5 p.m.

Good morning,

No Quality bets. Update at noon.

The Tauranga Punters Club closes at midnight tonight here

Some tricky races at Ruakaka. I’ve used the Formpro ratings to preview the fifth race where it shows Bkackmagicwoman has clearly got an advantage.

I’ve been through the Addington harness sectionals and form, and come up with the two below.

Bet of the day Ruakaka race 5 3.Blackmagicwoman $3.30 Ff – 4th had her chance

Value bet of the day Addington Race 11 2.Chase Auckland $4.60 FF 1st $4

Ruakaka

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5 

9.Kaareraway 1st last start ran on well behind a not so bad horse in catalyst here! She rated an FR 102 so dropping back to a maiden with 55kgs and getting up to a more suitable 1400, makes her very well placed in the small field. Likely to get back from the wide draw and there doesn’t look to be a lot of tempo in this, so Matt will have to get going early or look for a track into it. RP $2.00, $1.95

Danger: 

1.Five Fortune looked good winning his trial from a wide draw where he showed good early speed to sit 2nd outer, led 300m out and won with a nice head down action. If he can jump and lead and dictate, he could have a winning break on the favourite.

Race 5

Needs to rate 106 at 56.5kgs.

Confidence: 3/5 where Blackmagicwoman rates clearly on top with the 3kgs off and Richie McHorse looks the only danger. 

3.Blackmagicwoman rated FR 107 when 2nd at Te Rapa in an R82 race on a Good 3 in an adjusted time of 2.08.34 the fastest of any of these over a middle distance. She has been racing well in handy fields on wet tracks recently. She strikes a weak field that is out of form or likely to need more runs. Gets in on 52.5kgs with the 3kg allowance and should get a good run in the small field. Predicted Formpro Rating 107, Needs to Rate 103 to win this, so the difference is +4 RP $2.50, $3.30 Ff, in from $3.70 FF

Dangers: 

2.Richie McHorse rated 106 fresh up with a nice fifth over 1600m at Hastings. Second up at Ellerslie he took off 800m out wide in the open to get handier by the turn but weakened out to last. Should be fitter now and has rated up to 110 when winning at Hastings. Fitter for two runs back strikes a weak field up in distance which should suit this strong fella. PFR 108, NTR 108 Diff = 0

4.Transformer  rated a career best last start second up of 102.4. Rated 100 in an R65 here when just beaten by the handy Amazing Az in an average speed rating. Fitter third up and likely to lead or share it with Uabasso. PFR 103, NTR 104, Diff = -1

1.Swing Note resumed in a stronger field over 1600m and rated 104 doing her best work very late. She rated 109 over 2000m last campaign, a career best. So with natural improvement, she should rate around 106. She needs to rate 108 to win this so Difference is -2. Watch market movements as to her chances.

Other thoughts:

6.Uabasso likely to share the pace but needs to rate 104 to win this and her best rating in last ten starts is 100, so 4 lengths difference.

5.Hesalljazz  rated 100 two starts back in a weaker field. Needs to find 4 lengths from somewhere.

Race 6

A few may fall over here as they have been going round and round  a few times.

In order: 3-11-1-2

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

5.Boogie Easy 1st $4 looked very fit last start when leading and was run down by the handy filly Avadane. Looks an uncontested leader here and they are always hard to beat when they are as fit as she is. RP $3.00, $3.60 FF

Dangers: 2-1-4

Race 8

Tricky race. In order: 4-1-7-6

 

Addington

 

Race 5

8.Matt Damon  has won his last four races and four of them over 2600m with dominat wins and in good times. he is a strong pacer and can do extra work. He looked ready to win after trialing here beating some horses that won and went close on Cup day. The favourite, Taxman, is suspect at a truly run 2600m which this is likely to be. RP $2.60, $3.80 FF

Race 11

2.Chase Auckland 1st $4 ran home strongly in the cup after the tempo favoured the first 6 in running and he had to come wide as the horse in front of him didn’t take him into it. He came from ninth and ran the fastest last 400m and 200m of the race. Drawn to drive to the lead early then will only hand up to Spankem and get every chance to beat him from there. RP $4, $5 FF into $4.60 Ff now.

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!