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Sunday preview below

Update: No further bets but watch out for pre- race tweets on Twitter. With rain forecast, it could make for some good bets. If you aren’t a Twitterer, then you can see them on the home page on the bottom right side.

Waverley

Good morning,

Some good racing today at Waverley. I’ll post an update by noon and will be tweeting out some pre race comments today before some races there.

One Quality bet: race 5 2.Youllbefine $8.50 and $2.80 2 units eachway

Bet of the day Race 5 2.Youllbefine $8.50 FF She sadly had a haemorrhage and died.

Value bet of the day race 3 9.Celtic Wonder $21 2nd $4 

We have a Good 3 track with rain forecast- not the greatest recipe. The rain radar here looks like it may just miss it with a bit of luck, but if your horse needs a dry track, wait.

PFR = Predicted Formpro Rating which is based on previous Formpro ratings and takes into account natural improvement, the race conditions like distance, track condition, likely run, opposition etc.

NTR= Needs to rate. takes into account the race rating for a race like this, then takes into account the weight it is carrying.

Diff= Difference. Compares the PFR and NTR. A positive difference is good, a negative difference is not so good.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

2.Pondering  rated 95 last start second up over 2000m after travelling 3 wide in the open all the way. It was a top effort and with a decent run would have won. Fitter now and from the Dummy Myers stable, he will be right at his peak for this. Gets 2kgs off and with a better run, looks a good ew chance here. Gets 2kgs off from Tiger. Any rain ok. PFR 96, NTR 93.5, Diff +2.5  RP $5, $7.50 after opening at $9.50 FF

Danger: 

6.Great North Road maps to get a good run and chances would increase with rain.

Race 2

Confidence:1/5 with a few chances.

1.He’s Done a Runner ran a strong second on debut and trialed well behind Gold Bracelet closing well late. Drawn well. RP $4

 Dangers:

13.Gold Bracelet led all the way in her trial. Ready to fire on debut.

2.Blue Arrow  ran four good races last campaign rating well. No luck fresh up 3 wide in the open. Wet track is ok.

Race 3

The speed map shows there is a bit of pace in this, so it may set up for a closer.

9.Celtic Wonder fresh up ran a close 4th here alongside Brother One and Malo Blik rating 100. Then second up ran a good fifth in a handy R65 field rating 97 alongside Arturo who won next up. Fitter now third up. It says the blinkers are going on but she has worn them in her last two starts. Maps to get a good run and could upset. Any rain ok as won on a heavy track. PFR 101, NTR 101 Diff = 0 RP $8, $21 after opening $41

Dangers:

6-2-1

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

3.Whenharrymetsaddle  rated 106 when beating Portland Jimmy at Trentham easily over 1600m on a Dead 6 track in a strong field. Three runs back now and ready to peak at the same rating. Wouldn’t want too much rain though. Dead 6 is his limit. PFR 106, NTR 103 Diff +3 RP $4, $6 FF

Dangers:

1.Portland Jimmy  looked fit fresh up and raced well after working for the lead. Up to 61kgs here and takes a while to work on the pace so $2.30 is hard to stomach second up. PFR 105, NTR 104, Diff + 1

Race 5

Confidence; 3/5

2.Youllbefine  ran a good 4th last start covering ground 3w with cover, loomed up 300m out and just blew out to run an improver’s fourth. Fresh up she rated 94 in an R65 field at Hawera when she was held up 200m, which cost her 2 lengths but but came again late. Fitter now and drawn to get all favours. She rated 94 in a handy maiden field last campaign on a heavy track, so any rain is ok. Gets 3kgs off in a weaker Fillies and mares maiden. Good strong mare.  PFR 96, NTR 93, Diff = +3 RP  $4, $8.50 and $2.80 place. 2 units a win and 2 units a place.

Dangers:

10.Rose Of Delgatie  nice second on debut and if not flattened by that, looks the main danger.

6.Fire Dancer  took the eye with a big finish for fifth fresh up. Likely to get back again and rely on a decent tempo which she may not get.

Race 6

The bookies have 8.Run Lee and 6.Take That clear of the field and I have to agree. I’d put in 10.Caption in quaddies as well after a good run here fresh up on a wet track.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

6.Hi I’m Nikkita  will relish any rain that comes along. Tough mare and drawn to get a good run. Good run last start in stronger field when held up. RP $3.80, ( less if rain comes) $4.50

Dangers:

3.Beyond The Fort  looked good running second in the Oaks at Trentham and got the race run to suit last start to win really well at Otaki. This is harder than that, drawn to settle around midfield inner and with not a lot of tempo likely, will need luck to get out and get going. If she does, she looks the one to beat but too short at $2.20, especially if the rain comes as it makes it tricky on this track. RP $3.20, $2.20 FF

8.Balham ran a  top third last start  and fitter now.

10.Pep Torque racing well and 52kgs will help the cause.

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

Any one of the four below can win this depending on the weather and bias etc.

In order: 9-5-10-4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!