For those on the multis with Malik to beat home Zamax, we’ll be hoping Zamax over-races again. Malik looks very fit and will get every chance from the good draw. The money is strong for Malik as well, so he can win. If you need a better priced runner, Hattie Bee is very good value. That worked out nicely with Zamax over-racing and had nothing left on the turn while Malik settled nicely and ran on nicely for third to complete the two main multis of the day to ensure a tidy profit for the day. I’ll post the sectionals for the meeting by 6 p.m. tomorrow.
10.Gravitalle is getting out to a backable price around $3.50. Looks ready to win. That’s the way to ride’m. Well done Leithal. Got out $4.20 in some markets! Back for the last race where we have a couple of nice multis finishing on Malik to head off Zamax
11.Oceans Eights looks very fit and the money is strong for him on the TAB and Betfair, so just needs one of Opie’s good rides here and it should be home. No luck once three back inner. Needs a bigger track.
Update race 6 She showed little fight. Lum Creek trained by a very good trainer in Ross McCarroll.
8.Shiranui gets this by default against a weak lot, but it will need a very good ride by Jason Waddell from the inside as she does have the early speed to land in the first four, but the way she can get beaten is if she gets caught on the rail under others as the leader may come back on her, so it would be great to see him look to get off the rail when the opportunity arises and put them to the sword on the turn as she will be too strong for these down the straight. If he gets trapped on the rail, she could be in trouble. She looks ready to win.
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Race 5 7.Mekelle 1st after getting a check about 900m out and put her head down to win well- great to see Danielle back among the winners too. has been confidently backed. I checked her last 600m in her trial and it was 34.14 and she did it on her ear! I’m picking Danielle will stay out of what looks to be a good early speed and land about fourth or fifth. I’m sure Danielle will try and stay on the outer, probably Cheers, and she knows what she is capable of, so just needs to get a clear run into it and she will be too good for these. Looks on her toes and ready to win.
Race 4 update; Another top training and riding combo with Declarada. Quinella with top two selections $6.80
1.Man Oh Man has the credentials to win this peaking in the right field. Opie I’m sure will keep him on the outer of others as he looked a bit field shy last start. Looks ready to win.
Well ridden by Sam to hold the lead and rate him ideally. Some nice runs in behind.
Update race 3. 1.Munster 1st $2.80 looks well placed to win on debut. I’ve been through every horse for early speed and if he shows the early speed he showed in his last trial from an outside gate, Sam should be able to hold the lead. He’s a fairly big horse and she won’t be keen to trail on this tighter course with him, and the inside looks to be playing fairly so far, so he can lead all the way. Went down nicely where Show The Love had to be revved up to get going.
Update Race 2 Humbucker was a bit one paced after being used early. Just goes to show what the combination of a Baker/Forsman and the blinkers combo can be dynamite. They have a good opinion of her so she may be ready to go on with it now. Watch out for Captain Newzealand when she gets blinker on as she is still learning. Sprinted wide from 600m in a sprint home off the front.
Gee, Opie has drifted out to $1.95 and Matt Cameron has come into $2.20. I have Opie clearly ahead on 12 points total and Matt on 7 total so take the $1.95 now. 1.Humbucker looks very ready and the money is strong for him.
The only double figure runner to come in is 5.Captain Newzealand who is very well bred. In her recent trial she was allowed to drop out last and work her way through them out wider and unwind nicely although she looks like she will learn a lot from that. Drawn well but likely to be around midfield inner and with her inexperience, it is hard to back her with much confidence, but could be worth putting in trifectas or quinellas with 1 and 7.
Update: Race 1
8.Its Doable looks very fit, ready to win and has been well backed. Good run for second but Ryan Elliot is riding with a midas touch and got that winning break on Saignon. Good start to the multis anyway with Its Doable beating Tutt la Classe easily. Quinella and trifectas in top 3 selections.
Update 11.49 a.m. next update before race 1
Head to heads:
Race 1 Its Doable $1.75 to beat Tutta La Classe ( See preview below as to why) yes paid $1.50
Race 9 Malik $1.85 to beat Zamax
Multi of the day with the two above returns $33.30 for every $10 Yes
Next best Multi: the two head to heads above and Race 5 7.Mekelle $1.75 yes win returns $58.20 Yes
The three above, plus Race 4 Man Oh Man $1.38 to place Yes , Race 6 Shiranui to win $1,65. Race 7 Oceans Eight to place, race 8 Gravitelle to place $1.30
$20 returns $1157 (Apologies – Revised to $463 as I omitted Munster for some reason in the original posted multi bet )
Suggested late quaddie for $8 for $1 units
R8 2, 10
R9 2, 3, 7, 10
It is only a midweek Tuesday meeting, but it is either going to be a blood bath for the bookies or for the punters with many favourites looking very well placed to win. It is hard to work out a best bet as there a few to choose from but not a lot of value, except in the first and last race.
I’ll post pre-race comments about two minutes before most races depending on how they look and any market movements. No Quality bets so far. I’ll post an update by noon.
Bet of the day Race 5 7.Mekelle $1.75 Ff
Value bet of the day Race 1 8.It’s Doable $7 FF 2nd
Speed map special Race 3 1.Munster $2.50 FF 1st $2.80 led all the way
Sneaky of the day race 9 7.Hattie Bee $11 Ff
PFR = Predicted Formpro Rating which is based on previous Formpro ratings and takes into account natural improvement, the race conditions like distance, track condition, likely run, opposition etc.
NTR= Needs to rate. takes into account the race rating for a race like this, then takes into account the weight it is carrying.
Diff= Difference. Compares the PFR and NTR. A positive difference is good, a negative difference is not so good.
Race rating 103 at 56 kgs
The speed map shows three runners looking to be on the pace early with most others looking to land handy, ensuring an even tempo suiting all runners.
Confidence: 2/5 where Salt Bay is too short at $3.20. It’s Doable does look the best value at $7
8.It’s Doable 2nd $1.70 qu $11.60 Tri $104 won very well fresh up over 1200m then second up here on a heavy track in a stronger R72 field, was caught wide in the open to the turn on a good tempo, so did well to keep fighting for 3.3L sixth. Then last start drew wide, snagged and kept up a sustained gallop wide out and was squeezed up 100m out. She rated a career best 102.3 but would have finished at least a length closer with a better run and without that squeeze up. Drawn out and likely to snag and with an even tempo likely, should get her chance to track into this and be hard to beat with Matt Cameron suiting her. PFR 103, NTR 102, Diff +1 RP $4, $7 FF
2.Saignon last win was here fresh up over 1200m rating 105 on a heavy track beating nice horses. He has rated 103 twice since then and 108 on a heavy 10 R82 race at Te Rapa. On a dead 6 track he is capable of rating 103 again, so PFR 103, NTR 104, Diff -1 1st $5.50FF and $4.10 tote
6.Penny Royal won strongly fresh up over 1300m then last start has to be good to win after being on a solid pace and was still too strong in a good speed rating. Maps to get a good run in the trail and be right in this. PFR 101, NTR 103, Diff -2 3rd and that freshened up showed racing too keenly. net up over less distance.
7.Tutte la Class won here but in the slowest of the four 1200m races, ( including It’s Doable’s race on the same day) Rating 100. Didn’t fire last start. Got a soft lead when winning at Te Rapa over 1400m. Gets 2kgs off and maps to be 7th inner, inside It’s Doable, who rates much better. PFR 100, NTR 102, Diff -2
4.Salt Bay rates well here and ran an improver’s race fresh up. Goes well here too. Negative is best form is over 1200m so rated down for that. PFR 99 NTR 101, Diff -2 Good lay
1.Humbucker after two strong seconds from the inside draw with Opie on ticks a few boxes. Looks the obvious one third up. RP $2.40, $2.10 Ff
7.Showbeel had her chance fresh up but the stable does have a good opinion of her. So maybe ridden off the pace and over 1400m could prove a better combination for her, especially with the blinkers going on.
1.Munster I liked the way he stretched out when winning his trial beating subsequent race winner Reiko. Drawn the inside and will likely try and lead all the way from there. RP $2.40, $2.80 FF
9.Palm Springs won her trail well sitting wide all the way and drawing out late. Just feel Munster has the edge on her though.
5.Show The Love solid 2nd in a good speed rating last start. Has a fitness and experience edge over the above two but feel Munster will be too strong for her.
1.Man Oh Man 2nd qu $6.80 ran a strong 6th fresh up and looked good hitting the line well for third in a strong speed and Formpro Rating of 97. Fitter third up from the Richards stable and has the early speed to slot in where Opie wants him to and be very hard to beat. RP $2.50, $3.20 FF
5.Declarada 1st $4.50 ran a very good second on debut over 1600m and battled in the heavy going after that. Drawn 1 but disappointed in her trial with the blinkers on and tiring over the last 200 metres. Led all the way.
7.Mekelle looked good debuting here over 1400m on a heavy track fighting hard for second in the slower part of the track. After a break you would not see a nicer trial than hers when she jumped well, trailed a good speed and came out on the bridle, with the front two being pushed along and strode past with an ideal action to win as she liked in good time ( and last 600m in 34.14 which compared very well to the open heats with race winners ). That break has allowed her to strengthen up and also mature mentally by the look of her attitude in running.She maps to get every chance with Danielle Johnson doing the navigating, and she looks too good for these. RP $1.60, $1.75 FF
8.Shiranui looked good last campaign off tough runs in better maiden fields and strong ratings. Wasn’t pushed when running second at the recent trials and looked like she would definitely improve with that as well. Strong Ocean Park 4yo mare now who will be suited with Jason Wadell in the saddle. Drawn 1 and if the inside is a not a no-go zone, she should beat these. RP $1.80, $1.65 FF
11.Oceans Eight was confidently expected to win last start but was travelling well to the turn and just could not find a gap and finished with with 3 gears to go through. She is a very nice looking 4yo mare now and with Opuie jumping into the drivers seat, she should get every chance to get followers money back. RP $2.50, $2.80 FF
6.Caribbean Rose has disappointed when expected to win a few times and is likely to do it again.
10.Gravitelle looked good winding up late for 4th on debut over 1400m then second up in a stronger maiden, got back and just couldn’t get clear running until it was all over. She looks a natural stayer and with Leith Innes on board, from the good draw, should get a good run and if the inside isn’t well off, should beat these. RP $2.50, $2.70 FF
2.Teen Titian ran on well last start and 1950 should suit.
8.Two Maddison fitter now and needs a perfect ride
The speed map shows a moderate tempo with Malik and Los Angeles sharing the lead early with Batabullet maybe sliding round to take over. Should suit runners in the first half in running.
Confidence: 2/5 where Hattie Bee looks the best value and Malik the main danger.
7.Hattie Bee rated 104 when running a close strong finishing second at Te Rapa over 2400m in an R72 race. In April she won here on a slow 8 track beating Lincoln King ( 3rd who is a good horse. ) At her last start here she rated 97 in an open handicap. So if she is ready, her track record and ratings say she is certainly capable of winning this. Fourth up after a good run at Hastings in an R72 race then last start she ended up 2nd outer, got tightened up on the turn but came back nicely for fifth. She is better ridden with a sit and coming at them so from the handy draw, she should land three back inner and be in the right spot to strike at nice odds. The side winkers also go on which will help also. PFR 99, NTR 97, Diff +2 RP $4.80, $11
2.Malik three starts back in a strong Spec Cond race at Hastings worked hard early when caught wide to get 2nd outer and only tired in the last 100 metres rating 100. Then next up I was impressed how he kicke off the front on the turn and held out subsequent smart winner Triomphe. Then last start over 1600m at Ellerslie, drew wide, snagged back and was bumped widest on the turn, but unwound strongly for a fast closing 5th rating 97 and ran the fourth fastest last 200m of the race. He has the early speed to settle on the pace and his action and runs so far indicates 1950m will be right up his alley. PFR 100, NTR 99, Diff +1
3.Wheao rated 100 when running a strong second at Ellerslie over 2100m beating many subsequent good winners. he spelled then ran a very good third fresh up over 1200m and second up after losing 5 lengths from a slow start ran on well for sixth. His two negatives are he can be very slow away at times and he hasn’t raced for almost 8 weeks. If you knew he was ready and was going to jump on terms, you would have him on top, but I’ve rated him down 3 points for those negatives. PFR 97, NTR 98 Diff -1 Won well rating 101.2 as the speed rating was very good, 117. Good training performance as well by the Carters.
1.Zamax is having his first go over more ground. two starts back he suffered heat stress and over raced and battled well for third but had his chance. Then last start, also over 1600m, he got his head up for a while before settling better and had his chance again for a battling third. This will be run at a slower tempo and he is likely to race keenly again, so giving weight to three or four handy horses who will be ready to pounce, makes him too short at $3.20 FF PFR 97, NTR 99, Diff -2