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Saturday, 23 November preview below

Update: Max wants this bet for his Multi: $20 returns $84

PUKEKOHE, Race 8, Marsemino (3) Place

Ballarat Race 3/ Defibrillate (4) Place

Ballarat Race 8/ Dr Drill (5) Place

Kembla Grange Race 4/ Misteed (6) Place

 

Update: No further bets. Will post Max’s bet from Heads Up shortly.

Good morning,

After doing all the form for both NZ meetings, the only bet I’m confident about with value is Wyndspelle’s race with Rock On Wood as the saver. So that is a Quality bet. Yearn was close to being one but I’m not confident how she will be ridden and where she will land. If the inside goes off and 3 wide in the open or with cover becomes an advantage, then she would be a good bet at those odds.

I’ll post an update by 1 p.m. along with Max’s multi from Heads Up.

Bet of the Day Awapuni Race 7 1.Wyndspelle $4.60, now $4.40 Saver on 3.Rock On Wood at $2.20 ( Only Quality bet – see below) Rock On Wood saved the bet

Value bet of the day Pukekohe Race 3 3. Unition $7 FF 1st $6 

Speed map Special Pukekohe Race 1  7.Katie Perrie $4 FF

Sneaky of the Day Pukekohe Race 5 4.Yearn $8.50 FF 1st $10

 

Update: One quality bet so far and it is two win bets on the same race.

Awapuni Saturday

Race 7 two win bets

6.9 units a win on 1.Wyndspelle at $4.60 to return 31.7 units and 6 units on Rock On Wood at  $2.20 FF to return 13.2 units as a saver.  +0.3 units

 

Heads Up can be heard here where the GOAT and I preview the Counties Cup, review last week, draw the Heads Up winner and give out a new question for next week. Plus we discuss Matt Cameron’s riding and some loose change to finish with.

Update: I’ve been through all of my Blackbooked runners racing in NZ on Saturday and can’t find any Quality bets. There is just no value in the Good confidence races. I’ll update by noon Friday.

Update 1.55 p.m. Race 7 added. Next update at 6 p.m.

Posted 8.45 Thursday

Early Saturday preview

PFR = Predicted Formpro Rating which is based on previous Formpro Ratings and takes into account natural improvement, the race conditions like distance, track condition, likely run, opposition etc.

NTR= Needs to rate. Takes into account the Race Rating ( strength of the field )  for a race like this, then takes into account the weight it is carrying.

Diff= Difference. Compares the PFR and NTR. A positive difference is good, a negative difference is not so good.

FR= Formpro Rating which takes into account many form factors and produces a number reflecting the quality of the run – the higher the number, the better the run. The best rating is  for a strong Group 1 like Melody Belle in this year’s Windsor Park Plate ( 119 ) down to a weak midweek maiden on the West Coast around 90. 1 rating point = 1 length.

RP= Rated Price. This reflects the chances I give the horse.

Confidence means the amount of confidence I have in finding the winner. The 3/5, 4/5 and 5/5 ( or Good Confidence races ) races are the ones worth seriously betting into.

Quality bets are the ‘Good Confidence’ races where there is good value. They have made an excellent long term profit over the last six months.

Pukekohe Park

The track is currently a Dead 6 and should get back to a Dead 4 or Good 3 with the dry warm forecast. Last year on a slow 7 track, the inside was off by race four, so it may do the same again but not to the same extent. If we had proper readings with a ‘Going Stick, as they use overseas, we could have the information to base our opinions on. They are here and being trialed, the sooner the better I say! I’ll ask the Track manager his opinion later today and post his comments.

The rail is True

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

7.Katie Perrie ran a very strong 4th in the Dunstan Feeds Final in a stronger field than this rating 108. last start she did very well when caught 3 wide in the open and kept closing for fourth. She did race two weeks ago in the abandoned race where she travelled well to the 600m and angled out on the turn when the race was abandoned. The 2400m is ideal and drawn to get all favours. RP $3.60, $4 FF

Dangers:

1.Excalibur  has plenty of pudding to carry and drawn out.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Inscription is a very good mare and can unleash a fast last 200m whatever the tempo. She has on a few occasions run the fastest last 200m of the day. She will get back from the draw, and if she can get a good track into it, can get over these with the light weight. RP $3.50, $3.40 FF

Dangers:

2.Magnum  drawn to get a good run with Opie up.

10.Paisley Park also drawn to get a good run and 53kgs helps.

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

3.Unition 1st $6 is nicely bred by Fastnet Rock out Diademe and looked very good in his two trials. He has the early speed to get into a winning position from 3 at the barrier and could worry the favourite out of it. RP $4.50, $7 FF

Danger:

1.Cool Aza Beel looked good winning on debut and trialed up very well right handed leading, cornering well and ha da bit in the tank when winning it. Drawn to lead and be the one to beat again.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

4.Gino Severini  looked good last campaign and won easily fresh up. Nice horse and well bred to win more races. Should get a good trip and be the one to beat against these. RP $3.00,Currently $4.20 but with Weaponry likely to be scratched a 12% deduction bringing it down to $3.70 ish

Race 5

Race Rating 113 at 57kgs

The speed map shows good early speed from 3-5-6-9, with Queen of Diamonds looking to hold up in the trail. An even tempo likely suiting all runners.

 

Confidence: 2/5

4.Yearn  1st $10 with a good ride. did very well here fresh up when caught 5th 3w in the open and kept finding to take ground off Marzemeno in a fast time running the second fastest last 600m of 33.51 rating 111, but you can add on at least 2 lengths to that with that tough run. She rated 112 twice last campaign – the last in the Group 2 Easter over 1600m at Ellerslie running the second fastest last 600m of 34.58. The other time with an amazing show of determination to win an Open Handicap over 1400m after working hard all the way. The negative is she has drawn wide here but after having a good look at the speed map, if she begins like she usually does, she may be able to look to get on Supreme Heights back 3 wide with cover as I can’t see her crossing to get 2nd outer too easily. Plus, it depends if the inside is off or not. So from there, she certainly has shown the ability to challenge 200m out and has the courage to win this. I’ve added on 1 point for natural improvement. And if the inside is off, which it may well be, 3 wide with cover could be the ideal place to be. PFR 114, NTR 113, Diff +1 RP $4.20, $8.50 Ff

Dangers:

3.Media Sensation won the 1000 Guineas over 1600m rating 107, then went on to rate 109 in a close 4th at Ellerslie over 1200m in an on pace race. She resumed at Te Rapa and could not have been more impressive winning in 1.09.48 and a very good speed rating. She definitely looked like she would improve with that and the Williams will have had this as her first target.  Drawn to get all favours from 2. When a 3yo filly resumes as a 4yo mare and rates a career best FR ( 110) fresh up, you know she is going to improve on that. 1400m is no problem. PFR 113, NTR 113, Diff 0 RP $ $4.60 , $2.80 FF

5.Le Castille  ran an improver’s 4th here fresh up rating 109 and the 1400m will suit. Her 5th in the Group 1 Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha over 1600m earned an FR of 112. 1400m is her ideal distance and she maps to land in a winning spot on the pace. She is quite capable of rating 113 over 1400m now. PFR 113. NTR 113, Diff 0 RP

2.Hello It’s Me rated a career best FR 114 in last year’s Windsor Park Plate then last start rated 113 in the same race. She was held up on the turn in that and once clear battled on well for 7th, alongside Atlanta Peach who won well next up. Drawn out but with the decent tempo early, and  with Matt Cameron riding with terrific judgement, she just needs to snag and get a bit of luck and track into it and she looks a realistic chance. PFR 112, NTR 113, Diff -1 RP $6, $8 FF

1.Princess Keruru rated a career best FR of 116 when winning the Railway this year. She got the perfect run 3 back inner for that. Fresh up she ran home hard late for second rating 112. The query is a strongly run 1400m, which this will be. She has won a trial since that fresh up run but from her draw, she is going to have to do extra work so I rate her on 111. PFR 111, NTR 113, Diff – 2

Other thoughts: 

7.Queen Of Diamonds  ran a fair fifth fresh up rating a career best of 109, but the form out of that has been poor. Should be improved though from the Baker/Forsman stable and drawn to get a good run with Opie up. PFR 109, NTR 113, Diff -4

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

7.Rusavy three good runs and just found 1600m a bit too far last start. back to 1400m with Tiger on board means he can win this time. RP $4.80, $5.50, in from $6.50 FF

Dangers:

9.Boogie Easy  won well last start leading all the way. She is a very fit mare who was run down late here two starts back.

17.Socialights  closed off nicely fresh up and is a nice mare.

Race 7

Race Rating is 114 at 57 kgs for the Group 3 race.

The speed map shows no obvious leader but many that like to race near the pace, so an even tempo likely in the big field of 14.

 

Confidence: 2/5

10.Concert Hall rated 113 at Trentham in a Group 3 1600m race for fillies and mares winning by 2.5L.  She settles well and always looked like she would excel over a middle distance. A rating of 112 second up here over 1600m showed she had come back just as good, if not better. Third up, she got back and charged late only to be blocked late rating 110. Then last start got back at Ellerslie where the tempo suited on pace runners and she closed off hard late for fourth in the fastest closing sectionals of the race rating 110. She lost a plate too which would not have helped her. So with that run over a middle distance now, she will be right near her peak. I’ve watched her carefully right through her career and the way she relaxes and can unleash a very fast sustained sprint, means she is ideal for a middle distance. There looks to be enough speed for her to snag back from that wide draw and with Matt Cameron riding in great form, she can get a track into it and bury them with that powerful sustained sprint. PFR 114, NTR 114, Diff = 0 RP $3.60, $4.40 FF

Dangers:

9.Toms powered home to win well last start rating 113, a career best by 4 points. In my experience with the Formpro ratings, when they win like that rating a career best like that jump, it usually goes on to rate higher. Drawn to settle midfield and can only improve off that, so can rate 114 despite being his first go right handed. PFR 114, NTR 114 Diff = 0, RP $4.40, $7 FF

7.In A Twinkling 1st with a good front running ride. rated 111 in an R82 race last start and has got his confidence back on better ground. He was suited to be on the pace as well where he can relax and get his breathing going nicely. He’s drawn to land on the pace again and with Opie on top, should get every chance again to go back to back. PFR 112, NTR 114, Diff -2

5.Fiscal Fantasy got all favours to win last start when 3 back inner and stuck to the rail on a moderate speed to drive through and win. Drawn out here and will need to do a lot more work. PFR 112, NTR 114, Diff -2

Race 8

Race Rating 112 at 57kgs

The speed map shows Pop Star Princess out wide looking to cross and lead or get 2nd outer which should ensure a fast early tempo with Julius, Marzemino and Speedy Meady hunting up to either lead or be near it. Pretty to Sea an unlikely starter with no rider declared yet. Rikki Tikki Tavi drew 9 here last start and snagged so likely to do the same along with Justacanta. An even tempo suiting all runners likely over the 1100m.

Confidence: 3/5

3.Marzemino led all the way here fresh up in 1.09.43 running home in 33.94 after getting a midrace rest rating 111. That is what she rated when winning at her last run last campaign run at Ellerslie over 1200m in 1.09.27 bolting in with 58kgs in an R82 race. Trainer Peter Williams and rider Andrew Calder said she really felt as though she would improve off that. Drawn to land in the first three and she is better with a sit rather than leading I feel anyway. The weight compression suits her getting in on 53kgs. PFR 112, NTR 110.5, Diff +1.5 RP $2.20, $2.00 FF

Dangers:

4.Rikki Tikki Tavi drawn out and will likely snag and rely on a fast tempo to get over these. She rated 110 here last start when running home strongly for third behind Marzemino and was blocked late. After a 49 day break she should be improved by that as well. She has rated up to 111 and should match that here if given a fair go at them. PFR 111, NTR 110.5, Diff +0.5

1.Julius  hasn’t raced for over a year because of injury, but according to trainer John Bell, is running around the place with no concern. He has rated up to 116 when he beat Melody Belle in the Gr 2 Foxbridge and at Ellerslie rated 114 winning in 1.08.32. The query, of course, is the 60kgs fresh up giving some nice sprinters 7kgs who have a race fitness advantage. He needs to rate 113.5 to win it which we know he can do and the good draw will ensure he gets every chance. PFR 113, NTR 113.5, Diff -0.5

11.Justacanta  put in a career best effort last start at Ellerslie rating 109 when getting back from a wide draw and charging home wide out for third behind the smart Spring Heat. His closing sectionals were some of the fastest of the day: L800 43.53, L600 32.48, L400 21.86 and L200 10.82. Those sectionals are rarely beaten at Ellerslie. He was freshened up for that according to the trainer David Greene, so the query is has that taken the edge off him? He will get back and if he has come through that ok and been kept fresh, there is no doubt he will be charging late and could upset. The barrier blanket goes on as he was slow out at Ellerslie. PFR 109, NTR 110.5 Diff -1.5

Other thoughts:

2.Santa Monica  had her chance here when fifth when clear rating 110. Needs to rate 112 to win this and i can’t see her finding at least 2 lengths against these.

7.Its Destiny’s Child  beat a weaker field here last start in nice time. Has rated 108 over 1200m at Tauranga when a close third alongside the smart Dama Zorro in nice time. Needs to find an extra 3 lengths from somewhere second up.

5.Pop Star Princess  is going to have to use half a petrol tank to lead or get second outer or be caught wide and be vulnerable late.

9.Speady Meady needs to be ridden quieter to allow him to use his finishing dash to best effect, and they aren’t riding him that way. No rider so doubtful stater.

10.Campari  is racing like she needs 1400m.

8.Short Fuse ran 8th to Spring Heat fresh up rating 108. Has rated 109 but needs to find a couple of lengths on that. Should run a nice race and be better placed in an R82 third up.

Race 9

Confidence: 3/5

20.Swords Drawn 1st $2 is racing strongly and the big track will suit him id he gets back in the field. RP R2.50, $2.80

Dangers:

11.Penteverest drawn to get all favours and ready to strike.

15.Very Appealing won well last start and drawn to get a good run on the pace.

1.Mercy Hill  fitter now and gets 2kgs off.

 

Awapuni

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

9.Ampius  has shown enough to say he can upset these in the first with a better surface. drawn to get a good run. RP $6, $12

Dangers:

1.Greystone had a few goes but drawn to get all favours.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

2.Semper Magico strong close second last start. Fitter now

16.Free To Shine  fought well after leading last start. Fitter now and harder to run down.

Race 3

6.Lilikoi is a lovely galloper and 1300m is ideal now. Tricky draw though. RP $3.50, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

12.Serena no luck behind catalyst in a strong field two back. Drawn 1 with a winning weight.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5 in an open race

5.Johnny Lincoln was run down late here last start rating well. This is not any stronger and should get a good run again. RP $4, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

8.Cead Mile Failte  has promised to do what she did last start so could easily do the same here. Drawn well.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

5.Miss Woburn is a nice mare and well bred. Drawn to be hard to beat. RP $3.00

Dangers:

6.Proletariat third up and fitter with 2kgs off.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

8.Heart Of Stone with Lisa Allpress up could make the difference and get her out cleanly and cross them. Smart mare. RP $4, $4.40

Dangers:

1.Challa drawn well and gets 3kgs off. Main danger.

 

Race 7

Race rating 112 at 57.5kgs

The speed map shows good speed from 4-6-8-9 and an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet with two bets. 6.9 units a win on 1.Wyndspelle at $4.60 to return 31.7 units and 6 units on Rock On Wood at  $2.20 FF to return 13.2 units as a saver.  

1.Wyndspelle rated an FR 118, a career best,  when running second to Melody Belle fresh up over 1400m at Hastings at WFA. He rated 116 in the same race the year before. He struck a strong field at Caulfield. With a freshen up of 6 weeks you would think he should be able to rate somewhere near those Hastings races and has won a jumpout hard held since, the trainer said. He maps to get back on the outer of Rock On Wood 9th outer and if Charlotte can trap him in long enough to the turn, she could get going on him, while he is trapped away and have to look for inside gaps, and he get a winning break on him. Or Rock On Wood could settle 3 back inner and rely on luck. Either way, Wyndspelle does look very well placed and at very good value.  He won over 1550m here November 15 last year last year beating Beefeater with 59kgs and rating 113. I spoke to trainer Johno Benner and he is confident he will go a very good race and is close to that Hastings form.   PFR 116, NTR 113, Diff +3 RP $2.00, $4.60 FF

Dangers:

3.Rock On Wood has made us a lot of money and is going to win a Group 1 race this campaign. He trialed up really nicely and will get back maybe 3 back inner or last inner and will need the gaps to open in time to get over these. PFR 113 , NTR 112, Diff +1

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

11.Sinarahma  1st $4.60   is a smart horse and should be even better this campaign. No favours fresh up. RP $4, $4.50

Dangers:

1.Weaponry gets 3kgs off and fitter now. Main danger.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

3.Hogan’s Hero  1st $4  is a nice horse and after two strong runs, will be spot on for this with Lisa Allpress giving him every chance. RP $4.00, $4.60 FF

Dangers:

5.Monkey Shoulder  is also a nice horse and will be charging late.

4.Lincoln Star gets 3kgs off which will help against the above two.

8.Tuigirl  has switched on now and could go on with it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!