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Friday 22nd November preview below

Update 12.59 p.m. Next update by 5 p.m.

Krakadeel in race 1 is just too short and is the lay of the day at $2.40.

Head to heads

Race 4 Fire Dancer $1.90 to beat Nudge Bar who has drawn wide, is second up, gives Fire Dancer 2kgs who should get a better run and is fitter third up.

Race 7 Flourishing $1.80 to beat Nomoathaj who is a bit one paced, gives 2.5 kgs to Flourishing.

Multi of the day with the two head to heads above $10 returns $34.20

Exra Multi with the two head to heads above and Race 6 1.Shady Grey to place at $2.25 Ff $10 returns $76.90

New Plymouth

The track has come back to a Dead 4. I’ll post an update by 1 p.m.

Bet of the day Race 4 10.Fire Dancer $5.50 FF

Value bet of the day Race 6 1.Shady Grey $6.50 1st $6

Speed map Special Race 1 12.Nothing Compares $3.40 FF 1st $4.50 

 

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

12.Nothing Compares  closed off with a sustained head down finish last start and was squeezed up late. 1800m in a slightly weaker field suits. RP $2.80, $3.40 FF

Dangers:

8.Princess Jenni ran a top second here two starts back setting a good pace and fought hard. Forgive her last run and if she can begin well, could be on pace and a place chance at nice odds.

1.Krakadeel  two solid placing but drawing out with a short run to the first turn makes him hard to take at $2.40FF

13.Plucky Miss ran on late in her recent trial with head down with a nice staying action. 1800m will suit from a good draw.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

11.Starry Shiraz good run fresh up working early. Fitter and drawn better. RP $5, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

6.Enduring Love has had a few goes and has an awkward draw.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

1.Ifndoubtgetout ran a strong second here last start. Fitter and drawn to get all favours. RP $4.80 FF

Dangers:

6.Madam Hass is ready to fire on debut after a good trial win.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

10.Fire Dancer  very good run for fourth here two starts back, and ran on well on an inside biased track last Sunday. Fitter and drawn to land closer and be harder to beat. RP $4.50, $7 FF and a solid eachway bet.

Dangers:

9.Missandei  looked a definite improver after a game second fresh up.

Race 5

6.Aquila Star  two strong placings and fitter now. RP $3.50

Dangers: 

8.Combat Queen  ran on well on debut and 1400m suits.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

1.Shady Grey top run last start 3 wide in the open and fought well for fifth not losing ground on the first few. Needs a good ride but if it gets it from Lisa Allpress, can win. RP $4.60, $6.50 FF

Dangers: 4-3-6

Race 7

Race Rating 98 at 56.5kgs

The speed map shows Delle Quartza and Miraculous wanting to lead with 1-4-6-7-13 drawn inside them wanting to kick up and hold a position behind them ensuring a fast first 400 metres and an even pace at least. It may suit closers.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Flourishing has rated around 99 and 100 in stronger R72 races. Fresh up she was ridden quietly from a wide draw after beginning awkwardly but charged home for third in a race favouring on pacers in 34.4 which in the context of the day was above average. She will be fitter for this and maps to get a winning run about 5th or 6th outer behind what should be at least an even tempo. Being out of a Zabeel mare, the smart La Fleur, means 1800m will not be an issue. Gets 3kgs off which has to be a plus. PFR 100, NTR 87, Diff + 3, RP  $2.80, $3.90 FF

Dangers:

3.Rangitata  drove hard late here to win over 1400m in an average maiden field rating 95 and definitely will be suited to the 1800m with his breeding and action. PFR 98, NTR 100, Diff -2

6.Crafty Eva rated 99 last start second up and rated 100 3 starts back at Hastings over 1600m. May snag from the draw and flash late.

Race 8

Race Rating 98 at 57.5kgs

The speed map shows no obvious leader but with a big field and even tempo is likely.

Confidence: 2/5

11.Game Of Love last start second up at Tauranga began ok but eased back to last and was late getting clear, but once she did, put in some telling late work, so much so that George Simon said, “Gee, Game of Love has been big!” She rated 96 for that but rated 102 fresh up last campaign in a stronger R72 race. Third up now and Sam Collett will be keen to make amends for the last two rides. PFR 100 NTR 97 Diff + 3 RP $3.80, $4.60 FF

Dangers:

3.Gobuyit from the good draw and with Lisa Allpress up, look the main danger.

10.Savastep  looked like she would be better with time. trialed well and ready to fire fresh up.

1.Spondulux rated well last start but topweight from a wide draw are two negatives.

 

 

 

 

 

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!