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Saturday, 30 November preview below

Unbelievable ride by Craig Grylls. That whip should have been in the left hand side when balanced up! Inexperienced horses there nearly always run out. That’s why we had to grab the money back on 2nd and 3rd because of the rider factor!

I just watched the head on replay again and I just can’t believe Grylls didn’t switch to left hand side when the warning was there 200m out.

Update 1 p.m. No head to heads

Sydney quaddie suggested bet $42 for $1 units missed

R6   12
R7     10, 12, 14
R8     7
R9      1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16

The Valley 

$22.40 for 10% Yes $390 for 10%

R6    2, 4, 5, 6
R7     1, 2, 3, 5
R8     6, 9
R9      6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 17

Update: The head to heads aren’t out yet for Ellerslie so will post another update by 1 p.m.

Update: 7.58 a.m.

Good morning,

Good 3 tracks at both venues is good to have. Just two Quality bets detailed below. The 43 on offer for Dragon leap with money back for 2nd and 3rd was up all day till 5p.m. yesterday, so hopefully you got onto that. If not, back him for a win. House Of Cartier is also very well placed. I’ll post an update by noon.

Bet of the Day Rosehill Race 6 12.House Of Cartier $3.40 FF ( Quality bet)

Value bet of the day Ellerslie Race 5 1.Dragon Leap $3.60 (Rated $1.80 so is excellent value  (Quality bet )  2nd 

Speed map Special Ellerslie race 3 3.Born Dragon $3.40 FF  1st

Sneaky of the day Wanganui race 2 13.Aridity $18 Ff  5th

Aaron P, who won the Heads Up comp, has a $20 multi on Dragon Leap and House Of Cartier to return $224

Update 6.30 p.m.

In my days of being a bookie it was days like tomorrow that you looked forward to with many even fields of different formlines. There are just two horses that I have ‘Good Confidence’ of 4/5 and 3/5, Dragon Leap and House Of Cartier detailed below. Both are well placed to win and map to get winning runs and are at value prices, so are Quality Bets.

Ellerslie

Heads Up can be viewed ( Apologies for the delay in the posting of this video as the GOAT’s two sports bets are in play and over. The Buffalos won their game and the Saints are 4 points up after 1 quarter.)  here 

Saturday preview. Next update by 5 p.m. One Quality bet so far. It is the First Call Special here  on Dragon Leap at $3 for 7 units.

Rosehill

Race 6 6.20pm NZ time

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet

12.House Of Cartier was taken to Australia last season after looking very good in New Zealand. She just went down in the Group 1 Schweppes Oaks in a good speed rating. After a spell she resumed and ran on late in tight quarters looking much stronger than last campaign. Second up just found 1400m too short. But after a quiet trial she was a dominant winner at Newcastle over 1850 running strong closing sectionals but the best part was how she changed legs and when something looked at her 100m out, she changed up a gear or two and went away and was strong through the line, indicating she is going to relish this 2000m. Up in class, but trainer John Sargent thinks a lot of her and so do I. This is not a strong field and she gets in on a light weight and should land in a winning position. She relaxes well and is going to be very hard to keep out here. RP $2.40, $3.70 FF 3 units a win at $3.70 FF

 

Ellerslie

Race 1 has a $20,000 Bonus early quaddie and it could get up to around $100,000

Confidence: 2/5 ( Need the four below for the quaddie )

5.Lincoln King 1st $7 Tri $176   did well last start to sustain a long run from 600m out and win easily. Natural stayer and just needs a decent speed up front to be the one to beat. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF (Money back if you back to win on FF and he finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th, up to $30 )

Dangers:

4.Spring Delight  ready for a middle distance now. May just need this but is the main danger.

7.Kya Khoob Lagti Ho any longer name and George wouldn’t be able to mention anything else in the race! Good win second up and right in this.

2.Mazzuro  struck a strong field last start and ran ok. This is slightly easier and from a good draw with a perfect ride could do it.

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5 Bordeaux Le Rouge looks the anchor.

1.Bordeaux Le Rouge 1st $1.30  will be improved by that solid 2nd on debut behind a nice horse and has the tongue tie going on indicates he may have had a breathing issue on debut. Looks the one and after going through the trials of the others, it is hard to see him beaten as he will be 2nd outer or leading and only a inexperience on this track could beat him.  RP $2.20, $1.65FF

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5 Anchor Born Dragon and save on 5 and 11

3.Born Dragon  1st $3.30  was used up early from a wide draw to lead and was only just run down late in around 1.09 for the 1200m rating a  career best of 111. From the inside draw, should be able to lead and be hard to beat. With Melt and Mumms jewel coming out now, he should be able to lead and dictate, and be very hard to run down. PFR 111, NTR 110, Diff +1, RP $3

Dangers:

11.Equinox is best over sprints now on Good tracks and he strikes those here. May land outside Born Dragon and if he is not on top of his game, could do it.

5.Mr Universe won very well and if they go hard, could swamp the above two.

Race 4

Confidence:2/5 ( Take the four below for the quaddie) Yes paid $312 

1.Bit Lippy  was unlucky here last start when held up in the straight. Drawn better and with a good pace likely, gets his chance to get over these late. RP $4.50

Dangers:

10.Superstrike was an impressive winner on debut. Tough field to go back to back in, but looks good.

18.Showoroses 1st $4.10   drawn to get a good run after a strong win fresh up.

7.Saintly Way closed off well wide out here last start. Can upset with a good run from the wide draw.

Race 5

The speed map shows Ranger and Tears of Jupiter likely to share the pace and a moderate to even tempo is likely.

Confidence: 4/5

1.Dragon Leap ran the fastest closing 600m 34.74 and 200m 11.49  all day at Te Rapa and that was on his debut over 1600m with 1200m races on the card. His Formpro Rating of 99 in that is the highest a maiden has rated on debut for years – ever since debuted Legs in 2005 and she won the Eulogy Stakes second up and the Kelt later on. Three smart winners have come out of that too which is not surprising. He is bred to be anything and he could not have been more impressive winning then. Drawn to get a good run as he showed early speed on debut but snagged back when others hunted up inside him, so can land in the first six on an even tempo. Only a very pour ride or very bad luck should get him beaten against this average field. RP $1.80, $3.60 6 units at $3.60 FF $3 on the First Call Special here with him to win and money back if 2nd or 3rd.

Dangers:

13.Tears Of Jupiter  won well here last start in good time. Will be the one Dragon has to leap over.

3.Mongolian Heaven  won well last start and drawn to be on the pace.

14.Two Illicit  won well second up and drawn well.

 

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5 The key to this race is the tempo which will be dictated by Ryan Elliot on Beauden.

8.Pinmedown  last start here was working into it nicely with a gear or three up her sleeve when she had to check off heels then got going again only to get into traffic again. The time was fast and with Sam Spratt on, she looks well placed to settle off a good speed and get over these late. RP $4.50, $6.50 Ff

Dangers:

1.The Mitigator 1st $5  will try and lead again and if they back off him midrace, he is well weighted to hold on.

6.Aim Smart did well here last start after a bad start. Drawn to get a good run and be right in this.

3.Beauden set a good pace last start and was still too good. Three of his last four wins have been when he has led. If Elliot sits outside The Mitigator and doesn’t pressure him, he is a chance again.

Race 7

Confidence; 2/5

13.Pierina  1st $3.20 would have finished much closer in the stronger WFA race last week behind Yearn if she had clear running. Fitter now and drawn to get a good run if she jumps better. RP $4

Dangers:

11.Lily D’Or  freshened up since good form at Hastings. Drawn to get all favours.

4.Riding The Wave 2nd $2.40   nice horse but needs all favours to beat the above three.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

5.London Banker won really well last start and looks the part. This is harder but is going to win more races. RP $5

Dangers:

8.Triomphe is a nice galloper probably better over more ground, but if they go hard, can win again.

9.Deels Done  has needed the blinkers and gets them now.

6.Apellido  can run time and is a quick improver.

Wanganui- it is a tough meeting here. Nothing I can recommend with good confidence.

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

7.Trendy Belt 1st $3.60 strong second last start and will be peaking now. RP $5

Dangers:

9.Sorry I’m Late rates well and gets 3kgs off.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5 Aridity is worth a small win bet at good odds. Money back on FF win bets if she finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

13.Aridity won well for us two starts back at good odds on a firm track. Struck a slow biased track last start and ran ok. Drawn to get all favours here and could upset back on a Good 3 track. She can run time. RP $7, $18 FF

Dangers:

10.Lady Rudolph  put it altogether to win well last start. Will win more races. negative is she will get back on the inner and need luck again.

1.La Bella Rosa fitter now and ready to strike with 2kgs off.

 

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

9.Showboat 1st $5.20  strong form beating Good Luck Charm who won well next start and drawn to lead and be hard to run down. RP $4, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

4.Celtic Wonder fought hard last start and drawn to get all favours with 3kgs off.

 

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

3.Amorata is ready for more ground now and Johnson will suit. RP $5

Dangers:

5.Steven James  ready to win now and needs a good ride.

 

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

7.Jakalbomb ready to improve now third up and left handed suits better. Drawn to get a good trail and be hard to keep out. RP $4.00, $5 FF

Dangers:

4.Neeson ready to strike now from a good draw.

3.Lady Kartel gets 3kgs off and drawn to get a good run on the pace.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

8.Just Fabulous  ready to strike now and with a good tempo, can win. RP $4, $3.90

Dangers:

2.Off Show 1st $9  drawn to be the main danger.

13.Kit Kat  drawn to get all favours and good money for her early says she is ready to improve.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

13.Yatima could not have been more impressive when winning at Tauranga beating a strong R72 field in a fast speed rating. Right at her peak and will need to be to beat some of these. She will get back and with an even tempo likely, she can get over these late. RP $5

Dangers:

4.Red Sierra gets in nicely at the weights and was a bit stiff at Ellerslie at WFA. Best form is on Dead or worse tracks which is the negative.

8.Platinum Invador  is going to relish the extra ground now. The harder they go, the better his chances.

9.Obsessive will get a good run and on 53kgs, is a place chance.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

3.Seaaprince 1st $4.30   won like a good horse here second up last campaign. Will get a good run and looks the hardest to beat. RP $4, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

9.Ritzy Sparkle  racing well and from a good draw, should be right in this.

5.Somewhere Man drawn to get all favours with 2kgs off.

11.Happy Tav  gets 4kgs off and fitter now after a tough run second up.

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!