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Thursday preview below

Update: Suggested Multi

Race 3 6.Heza Looker $1.80 FF

Race 6 4.Dee Keepa $2.60 Ff

$10 returns $46.80 yes

Good morning,

Some nice races today with one Quality bet so far, race 6 4.Dae Keepa 4.7 units at $2.80 Ff yes- returned 13.16 units net profit 8.46 units

Update by noon.

Bet of the day Race 6 4.Dee Keepa $2.80 Ff 1st $2.70 

Value Bet of the day Race 1 7.Princess Jenni $5 FF 4th

Speed map special Race 3 6.Heza Looker $1.85 FF 1st $1.80 

Suggested late quaddie for $16 for 50% missed last leg after Mister Geronimo is sent forward setting up a good pace for the first time in ten starts!

R5    1, 3, 7, 8
R6    4
R7    1, 3, 7, 12
R8     1, 4

New Plymouth

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

7.Princess Jenni drawn to get a better run after a strong 4th last start here. two starts back she beat home Zareeba, who had her chance. Lisa Allpress will likely try and lead or sit 2nd outer, and with a moderate tempo likely, unless Lisa decides to make a staying test, can beat home Zareeba again. RP $3.80, $5.00 Ff

Dangers: 

6.Zareeba  looks the obvious danger. but is too short at $2.00 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.O’Charm 1st $2.30  ready to peak now after a good second last start in a fast run race last start. Drawn well with 2kgs off. RP $2.50, $2.30 FF

8.Meritorious  drawn to be the obvious danger. Won her trial well at Avondale but O’Charm has the fitness advantage.

Race 3

Confidence; 3/5

6.Heza Looker 1st $1.80   looked very good winning his trial easing down and is set to fire on debut and 1100m suits as he is likely to lead or be outside it with his early speed. RP $2.10, $1.85 Ff

Dangers:

1.Oceana Lad nice trials and a quiet 4th in his last one, but looks like 1400m or more will suit better.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

8.Vistock  ran on nicely on debut in a stronger field at Ruakaka. very nice trial jumping well, snagged to 4th and ran on under her own steam. She is ready to win with 2kgs off. RP $2.60, $2.80 FF

Danger: 

3.Barney Rubble  1st $3.50 did well on debut here when he got back, bit his tongue and it bled, but was still able to almost get up for second. Sam Collett a good left hand whip rider, will suit him as he tends to lay in  . 1200m from a good draw means he may have the advantage over Vistock early, but the 4kgs difference may tell late.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Our Creed has run two strong seconds in his last three starts. The last in a good speed rating. Very fit and from the wide draw will go forward and if he can get to second outer without working too hard, has to be the one to beat now. RP $2.60., $3.30 FF

Dangers:

7.Gold Bracelet 1st $4 did well last start when snagged back from a wide draw, came wide and closed off hard late taking ground off subsequent winner Trendy Belt while the winner got all favours in front on a biased track.

8.Porotene Charm  ran on well late here on debut over 1100m and the step to 1400m suits with 3kgs off and a good draw.

3.Streak Of Power two handy runs and from the Fraser Auret stable will be ready to peak third up.

Other thoughts: 

6.Eros  was ok at the trials when he had every chance and was given a couple 100m out and battled ok.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

4.Dee Keepa 1st $2.70 looks well placed over 1400m from a good draw to win. She got back last start and once balanced up really closed hard late to almost get up and was in front just past the post- the 4th and 5th horses have won impressively since. Her sectionals and times suggest she will win a few races. She is a very nice galloper and has trained on the right way. Maps to be about 5th or 6th behind a moderate tempo and Sam Collett will give her every chance.  RP $1.80, $2.80 FF ( 4.7 units at $2.80 Ff returns 13.16 units )

Dangers:

13.Rose Of Delgatie  on debut here had a good run outside the leader and fought well for second although she did have her chance to win. Second up she was fractious before the start and just didn’t want to race after being scrubbed out of the gates and got back and did nothing. Back here may help but Dea Keepa looks too good.

6.Reliable Miss  did well on debut when last , came wide and ran on strongly for third. her action suggests she wants a wet track and more ground, so can’t see her beating Dae Keepa who will have a good run and be finishing powerfully.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5  One of the four below should win this.

3.Mongolian Dynasty did well last start5 second up when working hard to get 2nd outer and looked around a bit but still fought well for third behind Declarada, who I’m keen on to win the last today. The Blinkers go on third up, which he needs and will be on the pace and may even lead and have the advantage over his main dangers from there.

Dangers:

1.Tubthumping strong second here two back in a handy maiden. Didn’t get a good run at Riccarton but found the line nicely. Back here, he maps to either lead or trail and get every chance. Maybe best leading as there doesn’t look to be an obvious leader.

12.White Hibiscus 1st $3 closed off strongly for third here last start and 1600m will definitely suit better.

7.Caption did well last start working wide on an inside biased track and got up for second. Drawn well and with a good run likely, can be right in it.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5 Declarada should will very likely lead with Into The Deep right on her tail and look the two to fight this out.

4.Declarada  won strongly fresh up when the trainer said she would definitely improve with the run. She just has that will to win so even though up in class, will likely try and lead again with her early speed and she is a mare I liked last campaign to win a few, so can lead all the way here. RP $3.50

Danger:

1.Into The Deep  should get a good run from the inside draw in the trail behind Declarada and be the main danger. He was being niggled at all the way last start in a fast run 1400m and fought hard indicating 1800m will be right up his alley.

8.Jazamour was held up when they were all on their bikes 500m out here last start. She found the line well for third. to be 3 back inner behind the above two so if they go too hard up front, she will be driving at them late. Bar Plates go on which is a negative.

Other thoughts:

10.Sky Hi Rahtwo ran on here last start as though more ground would suit. Place chance at best.

9.Aratoka was held up at a vital stage last start. best form is on slow or worse tracks and maps to get back so place chance.

2.Beached As Bro ran on late after clearing traffic at Te Rapa. Racing as though he needs 2200m so I can see him setting off the pace here and being a bit one paced to the line and watching for him next up when over more ground.

5.Regal Rock 1st after a fast pace was set up for her. has been training very well but likely to get back and didn’t do much last start after getting back here.

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!