Home » Results » Saturday, 7th December preview below

Saturday, 7th December preview below

Update:

Meeting 12 Pakenham quaddie suggested: 22.05 for a 5% bet

R6    3, 6, 9
R7    1, 4, 8
R8     1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10
R9     1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 12

Update: It looks like the rain will be arriving after the races at Trentham which is good. Supera will get her chance to show how good she is. She is now a Quality bet with 3.9 units at $2.20

I will post an update by 2 p.m. with a suggested Australian quaddie which we were lucky enough to fluke last week. Ryan P who won the Heads Up Multi, has Supera into Dama Zorro for $20  to return $176

Bet of the day Trentham Race 8 9.Supera $2.20 FF ( Quality bet 3.9 units )

Value bet of the day Ellerslie race 6 5.Dama Zorro $4 Ff ( Quality bet at 3 units ) 1st $3.40  6.9 units bet, 12 returned for a net profit of 5.1 units plus 8.46 units from Thursday totals 13.56 units for the week.

Speed map Special Trentham race 4 5.Tavi Mac $2.40 FF  1st $2.40

Sneaky of the Day Trentham race 9 4.Smart Remark $5.50 Ff

Heads Up, where the GOAT and I preview the Captain Cook and chat about the week that has been and what’s coming up,  can be heard here

One Quality bet so far. Saturday Ellerslie Race 6 4.Dama Zorro 3 units at $4 FF

Ellerslie

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

5.Rendition did well after a slow start here to get up for 5th in a stronger field. 1600m suits but her slow starts are costing her. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Mongolian Sun  ran an improver’s third second up and drawn to get all favours.

6.Zakalicious  ran on well last start but $3 is a bit short.

 

Confidence: 2/5

1.Savvy Yong Blonk  was unlucky at Tauranga in a very strong race. Ready to win and the race fitness edge over Swords Drawn over a middle distance could be the difference. RP $3.50

Dangers: 

2.Swords Drawn  have the bookies very nervous and so has opened $1.70, which  is too short being his first run over ground against rock hard fit and in-form middle distance runners.

5.Misstumut  had her chance last start and more give in the ground may help.

8.Wheao  won well in a good speed rating last start. Could upset.

Race 3

7.Dance Card  is ready to strike now after a good 4th last start when held up. RP $4, $4 Ff

Dangers:

2.Evana Rahma is racing really well and is the obvious danger.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

1.Riodini has looked very smart in all three of his wins. Should get a winning run from the good draw and looks very hard beat at set weights. Trainer, Nigel Tiley, is very bullish about his chances no matter what the tempo. RP $1.70, $1.50 Ff

Dangers:

5.Hasstobegood  looked good winning last start and looks the main danger.

6.Showaroses  won in good time showing good fight last Saturday. 1400m should suit.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

4.Aero De Paris  won really well last start after having the toughest run in the race. Drawn wide and will snag but there looks to be a good speed up front, so can get over these late. RP $3.80, $4 but there is likely to be a deduction with Princess Rihanna coming out.

Dangers:

11.Pimms  ‘N Pearls  won well last start and looks stronger. Drawn to get all favours.

10.One Kotukustreet gets 3kgs off and if lefrt alone in the lead, could prove hard to catch.

8.Fullinbloom  goes best here and from the good draw, should be in it.

 

Race 6

Rating 110.5 on 54kgs

The speed map shows three runners looking to lead or be on it, with most others looking to be just in behind. A a moderate to  even tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet

5.Dama Zorro looked fit enough to win at Tauranga and did it easily in the end, rating 109 beating race rival Speady Meady and they meet on similar weights. She rated 11 twice last campaign in good fields and she improved late in her campaign. So she has come back even better and with natural improvement, should improve a couple of lengths. There aren’t many horses around who can real off closing sectionals like she can off a slow or fast tempo.  Trainer David Greene is very happy with her training, ‘ Big improvement from her first run and the best she’s ever galloped on Monday.’ PFR 111, NTR 110.5. Diff + 0.5 kgs. RP $2.60, $4 FF ( 3 units at $4 FF with the value Staking Plan. )

Dangers:

7.Speedy Meady just beaten at Pukekohe but was comfortably beaten by Dama Zorro two back and they meet on similar weights. Would need a very soft lead to turn the tables.

1.Dawn Patrol rated 113 at Rotorua last start. Cruised to the line in a recent trial. Drier track should be ok. Wide draw with 60kgs are a couple of negatives though. PFR 111, NTR 113, Diff -2

4.Ronchi could put some real pressure on the leaders early from a wide draw setting it up for Dama Zorro.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5 in a very even race

7.Viktor Vegas has been running home in fast sectionals and is fitter now. Drawn to land closer. RP $6, $9 FF

Dangers:

4.Pris De Fer won well last start after being slow away. Drawn well.

1.Demonetization drawn to get all favours and will be ready to go.

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

9.Star Karen looked all over the winner here last start but just not having that run over ground under her belt, meant she lacked that race fitness and was outfinished late although she was coming back late. Ran a big third in the Oaks which is proving to be strong form. Drawn to get a good run with Samantha Collett up. RP $2.70, $2.70 FF Not a quality bet as no value.

Dangers:

5.Orakei Overlord  looks like he needs a middle distance now.

8.Richie McHorse is fourth up now and ready to strike.

 

Trentham WARNING- I would wait before having a bet here as the weather forecast isn’t great. 

 

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

1.Mascarpone  won easily with all favours last start. Big strong galloper so 1400m will suit. RP $2.40, 41.95

Dangers: 

1.Free To Shine led all the way to win in good time last start. Drawn to do the same. Any rain ok.

5.Lincoln’s Cruz had no luck on debut when the money was on. The GOAT really likes this horse so could be a good one to start with.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

3.Miss Labasa good second last start and a definite improver. very good mare who will win more races. RP $3.00, $3.20 Ff Any rain will be a concern though.

Danger:

1.Lincoln Raider really comes into it with any rain. Good run at Riccarton and gets 2kgs off in this easier field.

10.Our Hail Mary is a good mare ready to fire fresh.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

6.Cead Mile Failte  has really switched on now and has always looked like she could win a few if she could get her act together. Drawn to get all favours and be the one to beat. RP $2.80

Dangers:

7.Johhny Lincoln always gives his best and is the main danger.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

5.Tavi Mac  has that will to win and should be able to test Xpression with his race fitness edge. Plus if any rain comes, it will favour this horse with a will to win. RP $2.30, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

1.Xpression  raced ok in Australia and with the early money coming for her, she is ready to fire fresh up. RP $3.00

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5 in a race with a few chances.

7.De La Terre looked good winning last start beating Bordeaux Le Rouge and has the early speed to cross to the rail and lead which is always an advantage down the chute. Looks the one to beat again. RP $4, $4.20

Dangers:

3.Not An Option  won well with all favours right handed last start. Trialed up very well left handed at Cambridge coming from off the pace.

1.Unition  is well bred and did well to win on debut, although drawn wide, with cover, could still do it.

6.Ohio Showgirl  is a good filly and if she can secure the trail behind De La Terre from barrier 2, she will be right in this.

Race 6

5.Don’t Know Jakk  strong second last start and peaking now. Drawn to get a good run. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Bruno Stars  two strong placings in good fields. Drawn to be the main danger.

4.Big Wink  is suited to 2400m and is a big strong galloper.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

2.Spiderman is a nice horse in great form. Drawn to get every chance. Rain ok. RP $4

Dangers:

4.Not Santa tough run last start. Nice mare and rain ok.

5.Bellissimo  game second here two back. Tough run last start. Any rain ok.

Race 8

Race Rating 115 at 57kgs

The speed map shows Shadows Cast likely to hunt through and lead, True Enough, Tiptronic, Darscape Princess ( Blinkers on ) and He Kin Fly. Supera maps to be three back inner and a moderate to even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 4/5 but do not back her until we know what the weather is doing as 5mm of rain and thunderstorms are forecast for the afternoon on Saturday. If Dead 6 or better, she should win. An indicator could be what time they run the race before in over 1400m. If they run 1.24.5 or faster off an even tempo she will be ok.

  9.Supera  is a very good mare as she showed when winning the Group 3 Anniversary here in January in 1.33.40 rating 114. She rated 112 and 113 in her two runs back and is peaking third up. She sweated up a bit at Tauranga and did it tough 3 wide in the open and was still too good. She rated 115 when running a close second in the Breeders at Te Aroha. She definitely can rate the 115 she needs to win this and is quite capable of going on to rate around 118 before this campaign is over. Maps to be three back inner and I can’t see them walking it so as long as she gets the gap by the 300m mark, she does look too good for these. PFR 117, NTR 115, Diff +2, RP $1.70, $2.20 FF ( 3.9 units at $2.20 for the value Staking Plan )

Dangers:

4.Wyndspelle rated strongly at Hastings with 117 and 118 and 113 last start to the very good Rock On Wood. The blinkers go back on. He ran a strong second to Supera here in the Anniversary after getting out late but had his chance. Hard to see him giving Supera 2kgs with both getting clear runs. PFR 117, NTR 116, Diff +1

1.Shadows Cast  has had some hard racing but rated well at Hastings up to 117. Bit below his best at Riccarton meeting the two above at the peak of their powers. Likely to try and lead and if left alone, can place.

3.True Enough  got the perfect run to win at Riccarton. Will go forward early and if he can slot in one off, has to be a place chance from there.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

4.Smart Remark  did well on debut leading outside a decent speed and stuck well for second. Big horse and Cameron Lammas will suit him. Looks an improver and drawn to get a good run.  RP $4, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Nudge Bar  impressed last start working early and bolting in in good time.

9.Punta Mita  got a soft lead and won well last start. This is harder.

2.Fearless  is always good for a place chance.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!