Friday preview below

Update: Heads Up, where the GOAT and I preview a couple of races from Awapuni, review the last fortnight, and you get your chance to win a $20 multi bet,  can be heard here

Good morning,

No Quality bets.

Apologies for the delay. I’ll post an update by 5 p.m. along with Heads Up and an early preview of Saturday.

Bet of the day Race 8 9.Crowning Star $3.60 FF  1st $3.00 

Value bet of the day Race 6 2.Saltbush Bill $4.20 FF 1st $3.90 

Otaki

Currently a Slow 8 with rain forecast so a downgrade is very likely. Rail true.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

7.Clownin Around ran a good third on a bog at Trentham over 1600m. Fair run last start after being held up. very fit ana slow to heavy track will suit more than the others. RP $4

Dangers:

3.Ripemgini  won’t mind the wet track and fitter now after a fair run first up over ground last start.

8.Run Lee  has been racing ok in handy fields. Steps to the 2100m for the first time on what is going to be a bit of fitness test, so $3.20 is a bit tough to take.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

2.Sola Power  handled a Dead to slow track easily when winning her trial in November. Settled nicely and looks set to win on debut.

6.Amor Amor  ran home stylishly late on a heavy track for third in her trail in August.

4.Porotene Charm 1st $3   has run on well late in both runs on better tracks.  A wet track is a query though so $2.70 is too short.

Race 3

Confidence:1/5

2.Blue Arrow  handles a wet track and was too keen over 1400m last start. back to 1200m suits.

5.Divine Wine  1st $3.60 has the ability to win a maiden and a wet track should be ok.

1.Outa Cash  goes well fresh and should handle the wet track ok.

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

4.Semper Magico  1st $3.70  ran a top second two starts back on a heavy track and the winner and fourth horses have since won. He is race fit and ready to win now in the right race. RP $3.00, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

2.Fearless  always seems to find one better and looks like he will again.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5 where the three favoured runners all have queries on them on a slow to heavy track.

8.Jenever did well last working wide and grabbing third behind a smart one. Wet track should be ok.

9.O’Shannon  1st $14.70 won two trials very easily on heavy ground but failed on debut on a Dead 6 track. Had time to grow and could do it.

1.Zeroed ran a good third after working early to hold 3rd just behind  Platinum Road on debut and it won next up. Blinkers go on. Slow to heavy track is a query though.

7.Springsteen  ran home well wide in a handy maiden field last start. Fitter, but a wet track is a query too.

3.Soul Vacation  ran on late on debut but being by Alamosa and based on his action, would prefer a dry track.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

2.Saltbush Bill 1st $3.90   is a big strong galloper with a nice action for a wet track. Small field suits and a definite chance. RP $3.50

Dangers:

7.Dalmatia  ran on strongly on debut for second behind the smart Dee Keepa with an action suitable for a wet track. Breeding also suggests he will handle it.

8.Heirloom was a bit unlucky fresh up when third. Has struggled on wet tracks and action says she needs a dry track.

Race 7

7.Hinepara  is a nice horse in the wet. two strong seconds and peaking so looks the obvious one.

4.Not Santa two runs back now and better third last start. Wide draw may be a plus or minus by this time of day.

3.Lord Turbo  has the best three Formpro Ratings on a  wet track and recently dropped out of R72 grade. Lisa Allpress jumps on and his last win was here in this grade on a wet track.

5.Lincoln Fury 1st $15  won easily on a similar surface at Trentham. Will be ready.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

9.Crowning Star 1st $3 quaddie $4576 treble $355, tri $143 First 4 $658    ran a solid closing third here two starts back in a strong form race with the 1st,2nd and 4th horses all winning since. She covered ground second up but stuck on well. She ran 2nd on debut on a slow track closing hard late but was DQ for weighing in light. Action says she will handle the ground well and she won a trial at Foxton before her debut run on a heavy track with ease. Lisa Allpress will be keen to make amends for that mistake when disqualified. RP $3.00, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

13.Rukita 2nd $2.60   ran on late on debut on a wet track and was outclassed in a 3yo race at Trentham. This is easier a wet track is ok.

1.Florence O’Reilly 4th had her chance fresh up and was run down late. A heavy track is a query so too short at $2.30 Ff

4.Ball Gown 3rd $1.70  led and battled well for third last campaign. No trials since and action says a better track would suit better.