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Boxing Day preview below

Update 11.05: No head to heads.

Caulfield suggested quaddie for $56.70 ( $29 for 5%)

R5   8, 14, 18
R6   1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9
R7    4, 5, 6
R8     1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, 14, 15

Update Thursdsay 8 a.m.

Ok, we have a lot of racing coming up which means plenty of opportunities to make some money, but even more to lose it on. So pick and choose your main bets and pace yourself. There are two Quality bets today detailed below. I’ll post an update by noon.

You can still enter the Punters Club for New Plymouth ( the Sunday meeting, and Tauranga on January 2nd) Any funds returned from new Plymouth will be re-invested into the Tauranga Punters Club. I’ll be putting a lot of time into those races as well. Closes Friday night.

You can deposit ( $10 units) now into:

ANZ Account number 01-0677-0114026-01  ( N Davis) please don’t use the -00 Business account to deposit into. If you bank with a bank other than ANZ, as long as you deposit it by today, Tuesday, it should be in by Friday.

Email me at Formpro@formpro.co.nz or txt on 027 352 6402 with your initials or nickname along with the amount you deposited.

 

Next update 5 p.m. today ( Two Quality bets so far for Thursday: Awapuni race 4 7.Heart Of Stone 4.4 units at $2.20 FF and Race 3 12. Maduro $4.60 FF 3 units )

Bet of the day  Awapuni Race 4 10.Heart Of Stone $2.20 ( Quality bet with 4.4 units) Yes 9.7 units returned for a 2.3 unit net profit for the day

Value bet of the day Awapuni Race 3 12.Maduro $4.60 FF ( Quality bet with 3 units) 4th

Speed map Special Awapuni Race 4 3.Travelling Light $3 FF 1st $3 

Sneaky of the day Ellerslie Race 9 10.Fiscal Fantasy $9 2nd $3 

Ellerslie

The rail is True and a Dead 4 with a fine day forecast

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

7.Star Karen had her chance here last start but should improve off it as she 32 days in between runs. Drawn to land closer and be fitter for this. RP $4, $4

Dangers:

8.Special Light fought well for second in good time here last start. Drawn to lead and be hard to run down.

6.Artiste fitter for last run and goes well here.

2.Excalibur this is easier and has won three times here.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

2.Brazier  looked good coming from last to win his trial. Will get back but his obvious class should get him close to winning this. RP $4

Dangers:

8.Taroni  drawn to be the main danger after being relegated here. Side winkers go on and drawn well.

5.Philipsburg  good win at trials but was slow away. Needs to begin better.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

5.Gino Severini  two strong runs then was caught wide here in a stronger field and battled well for sixth. RP $3.20, $2.60 FF

Dangers:

6.Campari  two good runs then weakened late in a harder field last start. Back in class and looks the main danger.

8.Cha Siu Bao ran on well here fresh up and goes well second up.

Race 4

The speed map shows Travelling Light leading and not a lot of pressure in a moderately run race, so should suit runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Travelling Light  won really well here over 1400m in faster time than the R72 and Open handicap the same day. She just didn’t see the 1600m out at Riccarton. Freshened up and back right handed, in a race where she should get all favours in the lead or close to it, she does look the one. RP $2.70, $3.00

Dangers: 

12.Bella Mente  was an unlucky fifth in the 1000 Guineas. Maps to get a good run trailing or 3 back inner and James will get her out in time to have a good crack at Travelling Light.

2.Harlech  has the negative of getting back on a race that will suit on pace runners. Big run at Riccarton but hard to back with confidence at $3.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Justacanta has been closing off fast in stronger fields. Gets 3kgs off and a good pace should ensure he gets a chance to run them down. RP $7, $12 FF

Dangers:

9.Only In Jakarta has looked very good in her two wins. A good sized 4yo mare, if she can cross and lead and not get taken on too much, could prove hard to run down again.

12.Olivia  ran home too well last start. Getting better with each run and drawn the rails.

14.Lookseasy  very good run here last start and with the light weight and good draw, has to be in it.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

4.Jip Jip Rock won easily here last start when getting cover and coming with a well timed finish. On 54kgs, she just needs a decent run to be the one to beat as she is right at her peak now. RP $4

Dangers:

5.Pullyoursocksup drawn to get every chance and is a good horse suited to 1500m.

1.Hypnos  won very well last start but giving good weight to horses that are peaking on much less weight.

Race 7

The speed maps shows good speed with four runners inside and out looking to elad or be on it and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5 in a race with four chances

8.Aalaalune almost beat Yourdeel here in the 1200m Sistema and then in the 1400m Soliloquy here was back on the fence and was going just as well as Jeniffer Eccles but could not find any room. She put it all together at Te Rapa when she relaxed well on the fence and charged past them in good time, although she did run in. Then at Awapuni last start, with the delay, she became unsettled, got back in a sprint home and it just wasn’t her day. I feel she is better suited right handed and from the draw will be able to settle midfield or just behind it one off, and with an even tempo likely, she is going to get her chance to charge past these with Ryan Elliot riding in top form. RP $5, $8 and $2.40 FF with four place div on FF betting.

Dangers:

1.Jennifer Eccles has rated very strongly, with her best being 108 in the 1000 Guineas. The tempo was against her then as well. She ran a very good third here and from the draw, should get a good run from James and get her chance to drive home and win. The 41 day break is a negative though over 1600m.

3.Showaroses  won well here and fought hard to a very good 3yo here last start. Should lead or get a cosy trail and be the main danger.

2.Two Illicit  did everything right here last start and beat a good horse. Drawn to get a good run.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

5.Marzemino is a  very good mare who can run time. Wide draw a negative but with her early pace, could slot into a one off position and be the one to beat. RP $4.50

Dangers:

7.Mr Universe  is racing in career best form. Tempo will suit.

2.Avantage is ready to fire fresh but giving weight to most from a wide draw is no help.

13.Mumms Jewel won in good time here last start. If she can ping and lead, she could prove hard to run down.

Race 9

Race Formpro Rating 116 at 57kgs

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and at least an even tempo likely maybe suiting off pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5

10.Fiscal Fantasy  won here at WFA two starts back ( Group 3) over 2000m and was very unlucky at Counties last start when blocked when winding up strongly. She has drawn to get a winning run three or four back inner and with an even tempo likely, she is going to get her chance to get out and drive at these late. RP $6, $9 and $2.80 ( Four place divs on FF )

Dangers:

9.Vernanme  ran on well for 6th in the Livamol and wasn’t quite right when 6th at Trentham fresh up. He’s a natural staying type and from the draw, should get every chance.

3.The Mitigator  will likely try and lead all the way and if allowed to, could do it. He won very well here last start over 1600m in fast time, so if he gets any easy sectionals midrace, he could steal it.

7.Beauden  bolted in last start but he averaged 13.03 seconds to the 600m so had a big advantage with his sprinting ability against slower staying horses. He couldn’t get past The Mitigator here over 1600m when he had  every chance over 1600m. He is going to have to work early from his wide draw, and at WFA, is just no value at $4.80 FF. His best chance is if he can use his tactical speed to slot in anywhere one off into that first bend and get a track into it. If he hunts up early, then he is going to be vulnerable in the last 200 metres.

Race 10

Confidence: 1/5

13.Socialights  really hit the line hard here last start. Spot on now and just needs a decent run from a wide draw. RP $7, $12

Dangers:

2.Acutus  ready to win now fourth up. Game 2nd last start after being 3 wide on the pace.

3.Kissinger  is a big horse and won well on debut. Drawn to get a good run.

5.Iago good 4th here last start and fitter now.

Awapuni

Race 1

2.Kick Start two strong thirds in better fields. Back to 1200m suits and this is easier. Drawn to get a good run. RP $3.00

Dangers:

3.Lincoln’s Kruz fitter and and looks the obvious quinella.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Lincoln Hanover has had a few placings and with a good beginning from the wide draw, he can slot over one off and being fitter now, is the one to beat. RP $3.00

Dangers:

2.Rio Star is fitter now and ran very well last start. You just never know, he could do it this time.

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

12.Maduro won in a good speed rating last start and did it easily. Before that he was unlucky when held up by the riderless horse and could have beaten Credit Manager, who won again next up in R72 company. He relaxes well and from the draw, should land in the first four, and even though up in class, he looks like he can win a few races, so Lisa Allpress just needs to get him out and wound up and he can put these away. RP $3.00, $4.60 FF ( 3 units with the value Staking Plan )

Race 4

Confidence:  4/5  (  and is a Quality bet. )

7.Heart Of Stone put in a top run here last start when drawing wide, then had to work to try and lead but couldn’t cross Molte Veloce, so eased, but still fought very hard to run second in fast time. Molte Veloce has since won well again. She has drawn the inside but has enough early speed to hold the lead and Lisa Allpress will no doubt take a hold of her once she has got that lead. I can’t see anything trying to get around her and lead once settled, so Lisa just has to angle out to the best part of the ground with a winning break on them after turning and should beat these comfortably. RP $1.50, $2.20 Ff ( 4.4 units at 2.20 FF using the value Staking Plan. )

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

2.Rock ‘N’ Affair  strong second last start and with 3kgs off, could hold on this time.

4.Tavi Mac  this will be harder but with a good ride, can do it.

5.Princess Amelie drawn to get a good run and ready to win.

1.Stradivarius  drops in class with 4kgs off after a good third in a better field here.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

6.Satu Lagi  just beaten by a nice horse here last start. Up in class but very fir and drawn out, which could be a plus by this time of day. RP $3.50

Dangers:

3.The Bandito with a nice run second outer could prove hard to run down.

1.Jessiegee will get a good run, and with a peak effort, can win.

Race 7

4.Proletariat has won his last two really well. Up in class but with a good run, has to be a chance.

3.Johnny Lincoln  always a chance and drawn well.

2.Commanding Prince fitter now and drawn to get a good run.

10.Gerda with 3kgs off could upset.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

15.Nudge Bar can run time and drawn to be hard to beat again. RP $4

4.Du’blues game second last start and gets 2kgs off.

2.Original Gangster  fitter now and drawn to get a good run if the inside is ok.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!