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Saturday preview below

A good day for the Quality bets. 28.2 units returned from a 9.2 outlay for a 19 unit net profit.

Update 11.34 No head to heads

Randwick Suggested quaddie for $21.60 for 30% yes paid $587 for a $176 return

R6    2, 8, 11
R7     3, 4
R8    8
R9     1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 14, 15, 16

The Valley suggested quaddie for $26.40 for 10%

R6  1, 3, 6, 8, 11, 13
R7   5, 6, 9, 11
R8    2
R9    1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 14

 

Good morning,

Some nice races at Matamata today. Levante looks like she is something special. Something Fast is a front runner that looks very well placed to win again in Sydney. The Punters Club is closed for New Plymouth tomorrow. I’ll update the list of unit holders and amount tomorrow morning.

I’ll post an update by noon today with any other bets.

Bet of the day Matamata Race 5 10.Levante $3.70 Quality bet ( The odds will be shorter after deductions – I’d estimate she will be around $2.60 so 4 units ) Update 8.17 a.m.  She has opened at $3.20 FF so 5 units with the Value Staking plan 1st 16 units returned for an 11 unit profit.

Value bet of the day Matamata Race 1 12.Sardonia $4.40 FF

Speed map Special Randwick Race 8 8.Something Fast $2.90 Quality bet 4.2 units with the value staking plan

Sneaky of the day Matamata Race 7 2.Whenharrymetsaddle $6.50 Ff

 

Randwick

Race 8 7.35 p.m. 

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet.

8.Something Fast  won like the very good horse he is here last start second up. He worked to the lead against a couple of speedsters and was travelling well on the turn. Then the rider just shook the reins and he immediately extended and kicked clear and sustained that stride right through the line to win in a good speed rating. That was over 1400m and the step to 1600m looks ideal third up. He beat Wolfe last campaign here over 1400m who went on to win a good Group 3 race. he maps to be able to slide to the lead and i can’t see anything wanting to take him on. He relaxes well and with that turn of foot he has, along with that will to win, he is going to be very hard to run down. RP $1.90, Currently $2.90 but 3.Toryjoy is scratched in Oz and not here, so expect 8% to come off that $2.90 making it $2.67. ( 4.2 units using the Value Staking plan )  1st after being well rated and there was no deduction which was a nice bonus. 12.2 units returned for a net profit of 8 units

Matamata

Race  1

Confidence: 2/5

12.Sardonia last start really hit the line stylishly for third when out and balanced. She ran the fastest L800, L600, L400 and Last 200 of the race. So she is set to win and this looks an ideal race for her over 1600m where there is going to be at least and even tempo. That will allow Danielle to ease her off the fence from back on the inner and get out and balanced near the turn and with that turn of foot she has shown, she will be  hard to keep out. RP $3.80, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

14.Kabu ran a game second last start over 1400m. Has early speed and if mot used up too much to get handy, will be the one Sardonia has to run down.

1.Alfa Rosso  ran a solid third last start and drawn to get a winning run this time.

5.Red Hussar has disappointed but drawn to get a good run and can place from there.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

1.Jamieson’s Tipple  ran a good 4th on debut leading and wilting late. The tongue tie goes on which indicates he could have had a b reathing issue. If he can lead these, he could prove harder to run down.

Dangers:

2.Yourpoint looked good running third in his last trial when getting back on the inner from the inside draw, then loomed full of running 150m out but wasn’t allowed to extend. He could have won easily

7.Vernazza  looked good elading all the way in her trial. Drawn out so needs a clean beginning.

5.Escudo  is a nice galloper and will likely settle back and if they go hard, which is likely, could swamp them.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

5.Limentis  dipped early and got back, raced keenly, then once out, ran home home well for second. Back to 1200m suits as they will go faster and allow her to settle. Nice mare and looks hard to beat. RP $3

Dangers:

1.Sham On Toast two strong seconds and drawn to get a good run. Very fit now.

10.Terracotta strong second against a nice horse on debut. Drawn ideally.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

8.Khorabella did very well after being hindered by a slow gate and got back, but she flew for third so could not be a late scratching because of that. Rated 102 fresh up in an R72 race. Fitter now and just needs a good ride from the wide draw to be  hard to beat here. RP $6, $9.50 FF

Dangers:

6.Making Waves  won well here in maiden company. drawn to get a good run.

12.Pimlico is better left handed and with a softish run on pace, could hold on.

5.Glenhope won well here on debut. Drawn to get a good run.

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

10.Levante looked very, very good winning on debut here. She came from the back and looked the winner 200 metres out and ran her last 600m in 34.05 and last 200m in 11.37, by far the best of the day. Trainer, Ken Kelso thought she would improve with the run as well. Drawn wide here so will drop back and rely on a decent tempo, which she should get, and Ryan Elliot is one of the best at getting them home from the back, so he will just be looking for clear air as early as he can in the straight,  and with natural improvement, as suggested by the trainer, we could see something special again. RP $1.90, $3.70 before odds were adjusted for scratchings overnight, so will update that as soon as possible.

Dangers:

6.Highlighter  did very well when outside Showoroses last start on the good pace and fought well for second rating very strongly. Nice looking filly who looks more professional now. Negative is there looks to be a few who want to lead or be on it, which will set it up for Levante.

1.Bit Lippy  has been finding the line hard and will be suited by a decent tempo with 2kgs off.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

6.Sai Fah  ran a career best FR last start of 108 when unwinding strongly for second behind the smart Popstar Princess.  He has a dry track action so it was probably on raw ability that he won on heavy tracks last campaign. Drawn to get a good run and be very hard to beat. RP $2.70, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

3.Cyber Attack was checked last start when about to mount what looked to be a winning run on the inside. he was eased right down after that. Drawn to get a good run and looks the main danger.

10.Darci Palmer will get back and the harder they go, the better its chances.

2.Howbowdat  trialed very nicely and is ready to fire fresh up. Goes well fresh.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

2.Whenharrymetsaddle  not suited in WFA company last start. Good galloper looking for ground now. 2000m back in class looks more like it. RP $4.50, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Voler Pour Moi  is ready to step to 2000m now after finding the line strongly late at Tauranga. But she goes best on a Slow or worse track.

7.Peloton  won really well for us last start when back in distance and ran good time. Not as confident with Joe cargo in it who will ensure he doesn’t get a soft lead early.

 

Race 8

Confidence:1/5

1.London Banker is a nice galloper who won well at Tauranga and last start ran on as though 2000m would suit now. RP $3.50

Dangers:

8.Girl Of Steel  should appreciate the extra ground now and drawn well.

2.Beached As Bro racing well and just needs luck from the wide draw.

9.Hattie Bee  ran on well last start and could upset with a good run likely.

Phar Lap Raceway

Race 7

Speed map says Ticket To Ride should lead with a few looking to settle just in behind. A moderate to even tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Ticket To Ride has been rating strongly and looks like she can get a soft lead here and her race fitness and will to win makes her very hard to run down. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

5.Monza Circuito maps to land just behind Ticket To Ride and with just a moderate tempo likely, that is going to suit her well as she is suspect in a hard run 1600m.

1.Who Dares Wins has been trialing well and should land in the first six and be a chance from there, despite the 60kgs.

3.Son Of Maher  is likely to get back off the moderate tempo but can get into a place with a good track into it.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!