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Sunday preview below

Update race 6 $2415 on 4.Sergeant Blast at $4.80 FF to return $11,592. Ran a game second.  Closing balance $3415 and a $5 payout. So we get $1800 back to go along with the $1000 kept back as a saver leaves $2,800 that will be going forward to the Tauranga Punters Club on Thursday.

Summary of the day: I was deciding between Aridity and White Hibiscus and went the wrong way. Vladivostock and Kings capital were good winners and Barney Rubble just got too far back but is one to watch out for.

Update for race 5 $5,000 on 7.White Hibiscus at $3.80 to return $19,000. 4th after being ridden upside down. Balance $5830

 

Update for Race 4

$4,000 on 1.Vladivostok at $2.15 FF to return $8,600. Gee that was hard work! Almost lost the pilot on jumping. Balance is $10,830 for a $4,000 net profit.

Update 2.07 p.m.

Total pool is $6820 and the current balance is $6220

Update race 3

3.Barney Rubble looks very well so $1500 on at $4.50 FF. I’ll update the final balance as soon as it is passed on to me. 4th after getting back a couple of spots too far back. –

Race 2 We have $600 win on 4.Kings Capital at $2.50 FF Always good to start with a winner! $1500 returned for a $900 net profit.

Update 12.45 p.m. We have $3,600 from the Formpro syndicate and they are looking at around $2,000 on course so a total close to $6,000. They will be selling tickets up until the start of race 3 but we can start betting on race 2. So the first update will be at about 1.08 p.m.

Update race 1:

Pondering is ready to go and is a solid eachway chance. 2nd ran a good race and looks a definite improver. Quinella with favourite $3.90 

 

 

Update 11.30 a.m. No further bets – next update just before race 1. First bet for the Punters Club will be before race 2

New Plymouth Raceway

Good morning,

No Quality bets so far today. Check back for the update by noon though. I’ll also Tweet out if we have any Quality bets before then too. We’ve made 30.2 units net profit in the last 3 days so a tidy finish to the year.

Some small but interesting fields here today. If you are in the Formpro Punters club ( unit holders here – please check- any queries please let me know ASAP) , we will be joining forces with the on- course one. I’ll be doing the selecting and betting for it starting from race 2 to race 6. I’ll be posting the bets on this page about 2 minutes before the start- earlier if possible.

The track played fairly on Friday which is good to see and it has come up a Dead 4.

Speedmaps are courtesy of Formproratings.co.nz

Bet of the day Race 4 1.Vladivostock $2.30 FF

Value bet of the day Race 1 1.Pondering $6 FF

 

Race 1

The speed map shows Pondering and Southern Vogue likely to share a moderate tempo.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Pondering ( a half brother to 6 win Sylvester )  ran a good race two back here when caught 3 wide in the open and fought well for fourth. Then next start led and was taken on well out and did well to fight on for fourth.  He maps to lead these and is likely to get his own way so fourth up and fitter, he looks a good chance to hold on with top rider Ryan Elliot in the saddle. RP ( Rated price)  $4.20, $6.00 FF

Dangers:

11.Seven Seas fought on well for second last start after laying in and fought on well. She will be fitter for that and looks the obvious danger but hard to take the shorts on her.

Race 2

The speed map shows Kings Capital and Cate Blanco likely to share the tempo.

Confidence: 3/5

4.Kings Capital has won both of his trials. Two trials back he soon led and kept up a strong gallop to win well. In his last trial he sat outside the leader and was urged to the lead and kept up a strong gallop again with Snip to his inside and he had him covered nicely to win well – Snip went on to run a very good second fresh up and has run a good second on another occasion. His closing sectionals were 33.47 and 11.65 which compared well to the Open heats. Craig Grylls rode him in both of his heats. Drawing inside Cate Blanco could be a winning advantage as he is likely to want to lead ( Horse drawn 1 is not as fast away and likely to want to trail )  and hold it. Being against the rail here is always an advantage so he looks set for a winning debut. RP $2.20, $2.40 FF

Dangers;

8.Cate Blanco fresh up here over 1400m showed good early speed to cross and lead. She was headed by Shady Grey after turning but showed real fight to come back at her to just go down. She will improved by that and back to 1200m suits. Lisa Allpress jumps on and she is likely to land outside the likely leader, Kings Capital, and be the main danger.

3.Barocca won his trial well but was slow away, settled 5th and ran home strongly. Drawn wide and likely to get back.

13.Crystal Bellini in her recent trial settled 4th outer, loomed 150m out and wasn’t pushed to run second. Drawn out to settle about 4th or 5th.

7.Keen To Run  ran third in a jumpout here where he showed good early speed to get 2nd outer and battled over the last 150m.

 

Race 3

The speed map shows plenty of early speed with four runners inside and wide looking to go forward and try and lead with four others with early speed to get in behind. An even to fast pace likely.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Barney Rubble on debut got back and went round them 500m out and ran on strongly for third to La Feelya. Then second up he wasn’t fast away, but soon gathered ground to be closer on the inner. On turning he got out and balanced up and sustained a strong gallop to win easily in nice time on the day. There is a going to be a decent tempo here, so he can settle back and look to pick a path through them, and get over them late. RP $3.40, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

6.La Feelya led all the way here fresh up and won easily in good time for 1100m. The 1200m should not be an issue. She does take a few strides to get going so needs to begin cleanly otherwise she may get crossed from out wide. If she can jump cleanly, I’m sure Lisa will try and get the lead but there is a bit of speed from others in this so not sure what she will be like if she gets crossed early.

8.Ristretto  had his chance last start but the early burn left him vulnerable late. He can be slow over the first few strides so will likely be hunted out early to try and hold the lead, ensuring a decent tempo with others coming across.

Race 4

The Speed map shows three runners likely to look to lead a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

1.Vladivostok on debut at Te Rapa jumped well, eased out of a speed duel, settled 5th outer and ran home strongly in a fast run race. The first and second horses have both won again since. Then he stepped to 1400m right handed at Ellerslie, settled 3 back inner, and once out, wanted to run out, so the rider changed the whip to the left hand and he unwound strongly for third, just alongside Kabu, who won impressively at Matamata yesterday. So that is very good form and he definitely looks like he runs better this way round. He should be able to land one off behind the pace and third up and peaking, and with the side winkers going on to help him focus, he looks very hard to beat now. RP $1.90 $2.30 FF

Dangers:

5.All In Chilly did well on Friday when hunting through to lead, set an even tempo and kept giving to hold second with some nice horses behind him. He was strong through the line as well so the 1600m will suit. Just depends on how much that race took out of him. The 3kgs off will help though.

4.Monlula  ran on well for fifth wider out behind Vlad and will appreciate the extra ground, but Vlad looks to have more ability, especially this way round.

9.Always Sacred  had every chance getting a soft lead on debut at Ellerslie and battled well for third. Would need to improve a few lengths off that to beat Vlad.

 

Race 5

The speed map shows no obvious leader but five runners looking to go forward.

Confidence: 2/5

7.White Hibiscus last start here had to be good to win after beginning well from a wide draw but had to snag back and was caught 3 wide in the open. Craig Grylls had to start riding her hard 500 metres out and she had to come widest to get a run. Once balanced up, she extended really well and wanted to lay in a bit but Craig didn’t swap the whip to the left hand, but she just kept responding well and got up to win comfortably in the end. She was a $100k purchase so has the blood to go on with it. When asked on trackside yesterday what would be one horse punters could follow with confidence, Craig said this horse. She maps to settle around 5th outer and from there, Craig should start winding her up about 500m out again and the way she responded last time here, it will take a very good effort to beat her on 55.5kgs. RP $3.40, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

1.Maninthesky won well on debut over 1400m in a similar time to the R65 race. he drew wide then and showed good early speed to get up 2nd outer, relaxed well and with a good Falkirk action, kept up a sustained gallop to win well.  He had a quiet trial recently when 4th outer off a slow speed and unwound nicely for a distant third. Drawn the inside and likely to try and lead or trail and looks the main danger from there with 2kgs off. Good one to look at in the birdcage as he will need to be spot on fresh up for 1600m

5.Aridity  drops out of stronger R72 races after going nice races. She can run time and her last win was here over 1400m in R65 grade. She has won over 1550m so with a good run likely with her early speed, she can be right in this..

Race 6

The speed map shows Overtheriver going forward with a few others. Sergeant Blast has been determined to be on pace this campaign so should either lead or be outside it and a moderate tempo is likely after they settle into positions.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Sergeant Blast is in career best form after he led all the way to win the Waverley Cup beating some handy horses. Last start in the Wanganui Cup in a stronger field was 2nd outer on a good speed and tired in the last 150m. Back to 1800m suits ideally as he will likely look to lead or sit 2nd outer and with the 3kgs off, if he can get a softish time, should prove hard to run down. RP $4.50

Dangers:

5.Mongolianconqueror ran a close second in the 2018 Derby but has struggled to win since. Good 6th in Easter in April. He was late getting clear last start at Te Rapa and ran on ok once out. The 1800m will suit as will Ryan Elliot jumping on board.

6.Athena Baby  worked home well last start and 1800m will suit

Race 7

The speed map shows Reliable Hunter leading with a few looking to get handy ensuring an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5

5.Reliable Hunter went down fighting on debut after he had to work to get 2nd outer. He Te an out badly late and may be better left handed so from the inside draw he should be able to lead as he began ok on debut. From there he looks the one to beat. RP $1.90, $1.90 FF

Danger:

2.Even Chance did well on debut when he used up petrol early recovering from a slow start and after trailing couldn’t get out when he wanted to. Battled on ok when out and is a nice looking well bred fella. Drawn wide here but with a good ride looks the only chance if topping the favourite.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!