Head to head suggested bets: ( In order of confidence )
Race 5 Saigon Hot Night $1.80 to beat Fire Dancer Yes
Race 6 Deep Blue $1.90 to beat Phelan Foxy Yes
Race 8 Divine Wine $1.75 to beat Podkast No
Race 2 Sanibel $2.00 to beat Flickering Shadow No and had her chance.
Race 4 Aridity $1.85 to beat Awesome Al Yes
Race 1 Horlistic $2.40 to beat Outa Cash Yes
Suggested late quaddie for $24 for 100%: No
R5 1, 2, 8, 13
R6 3, 7
R8 3, 4, 5
No Quality bets so far today. I’ve done a full preview of Otaki below and will post an update by noon with any head to head or other bets.
I’ll also be posting a review of the meeting as well with comments about which horses to follow etc.
Punters Club Payout update:
NB Could BG and DW please text or email me with their Bank account details for their Punters Club refunds – you may well have sent them but I can’t find them. Everyone else will have received their payout ( $5 for every $10 ) or receive it today.
Free Access to the Palmerston North Dog ratings here along with selections from David.
The track is a Dead 5 with strong Westerly winds forecast, so expect an upgrade. A westerly wind means a head wind down the back straight and tail breeze running home.
Bet of the day Race 7 3.Radio Active $2.60 FF Missed
Value bet of the day Race 8 4.Outthegate $9.50 FF 2nd $3
Speed map special Race 1 5.Horlistic $4.60 FF 1st $4.80
Sneaky of the day Race 2 1.Sola Power $6.50 FF 3rd $2.30
Lays of the day ( Favoured runners that can get beaten)
Race 1 1.Outa Cash at $2.50 Ff ( had his chance last start and two nice horses to beat. ) Yes
Race 2 3.Martina Rose ( Drawn wide and with a head wind down the back straight is going to have to snag back or work hard into it for the first 400 metres ) Yes
Race 5 7.Springsteen $3.10 FF (got all favours last start and ran an ok 2nd. Will need to work harder this time and up against a couple of handy horses ) won
Race 8 3.Not Santa $3.10 FF Will have to work on a good tempo into a head wind and be vulnerable in the last 100 metres. Won
Best double figure chance:
Race 5 13.Alpine Charm $23 FF ( nice run on debut in slow ground and better track will suit )
The speed map shows Outa Cash, Abe Lincoln and Abe Lincoln likely to look to lead with Horlistic trailing. The Grinder should land about 5th.
Confidence: 2/5 where there look to be three winning chances.
5.Horlistic 1st $4.80 on debut appeared to stumble early and got back but once balanced up and out wide got home well for third almost beating race rival Outa Cash with a dry track action on the Slow 9 track. So the better surface will help as will the 2kgs off getting a nice advantage. In her trial she drew 1 and bounced to the lead then trailed so has early speed and maps to trail Outa Cash which looks the place to be with a head wind down the back straight. RP $3.50, $4.60 FF
Dangers in order:
4.The Grinder 2nd looked good coming from last to almost win and could have, in his recent trial. Lisa rode him then and stays with him. He jumped well in his recent jumpout and trailed and drove through and won well here
Looks set to go a big one on debut
1.Outa Cash had every chance here fresh up. Fought well for second. Drawn the rail and should get every chance. Will have improved with that fresh up run. Has a nice wet track action. $2.40 looks a bit short against the above two. Every chance
6.Polizzi likely to look to get cover early and has a wet track action. Best run was 2nd at Hastings but leader lost the rider 100m out and he would have been a distant third. Had his chances since.
2.Abe Lincoln in his trial in April was 2nd outer and didn’t show much fight when fading to fifth over the last 150m.
3.Alleapoffaith has not trials form. Drawn wide and likely to snag on debut with speed inside.
The speed map shows Flickering Shadow leading and the rest all seem to have fair early speed so it just depends on how cleanly these inexperienced ones jump as to where they land.
Confidence: 1/5 where there look to be four winning chances.
1.Sola Power looked good winning his trial from 3rd outer but on debut jumped and was awkwardly away then over raced and had nothing left 200m out. Quite a bit of gear is coming off here and going on so Kevin Gray should have it right this time. Drawn well to get a nice suck along. RP $4.50
3.Martina Rose on debut got hampered by Sola Power and ended up last, then traveled up well to the turn but had no room. Got out when the first two and got away and closed off strongly for third. Nice galloper and Lisa knows what she is capable of now. Wide draw no help though especially with the likely head wind down the back straight.
5.Sanibel last start here got out nicely, trailed but was a bit keen, go shuffled to last and ran on ok for fourth looking around a bit just behind race rival Martina Rose. So the side winkers will help with focus and drawn to get a good run.
2.Tavattack 1st $3.30 ran a close second in a recent jumpout and is ready to go a good race from the Sharrock stable.
7.Silent Approach on debut had no chance when caught 4 wide and faded. Trialed ok recently when 5th outer and battled on ok wide for a close fourth. Could get into a placing.
4.Flickering Shadow last start began fast, led then trailed but was a bit weak 150m out battling for fourth. Likely to lead again but hard to see improving enough to beat some of these.
6.Catchouxlater 2nd outer last start here and tired 150m out beaten but some here easily. Hard to see improving enough to trouble them.
The speed map shows Alice Tinker may lead but it will just come down to who jumps best and what happens after that.
Confidence: 1/5 and is a no bet race with Wicket Maiden having no trial form but has probably had a few jumpouts that punters cant see so why bet? There are other races with more exposed form
4.Alice Tinker 1st $1.80 looked good winning her trial at Te Rapa when leading all the way handling the left handed way really well and relished her work kicking away to win easily. On debut at Ellerslie began fast and led but didn’t seem comfortable right handed, but one balanced kicked well only to be swamped 30 m out. Back left handed looks ideal and can lead and win.
Dangers in order:
3.Kentucky May had her chance on debut when bouncing ok, 2nd inner , got 2nd outer on the turn and battled ok for 2nd. Will be stronger now and drawn to get a nice run just in behind. Blinkers go on
9.Wicket Maiden has no trials form and some money has come for her. So that really does make it a no bet race as you just can’t work out the form with nothing to go on.
8.Vespas Diva nice recent trial sharing the pace and fighting well for a close second. Drawn to get a good run.
5.Elusive Jewel burnt early from a wide draw and folded 250m out. Likely to go forward again with a clean beginning but hard to see troubling some of those above.
The speed maps shows Royal Ruby going forward and likely to lead with Chickaberinda likely to trail or share the pace. A moderate tempo likely suiting on pace runners. There may be a strong head wind in the back straight which will mean getting cover will be a plus.
4.Just Fabulous 3rd $2 last start had the tongue tie go on and the nasal strip, which both helped her breathing, and she held on strongly to win rating 100 and has rated 102 in a strong 3yo race at Trentham. She has always shown the ability to win a few races, so after that strong win where she could get maximum air in, she should now go on with it. NTR 103, PFR 102, Diff -1, RP $3.70, $4.80 Ff
Dangers in order;
5.Chickabarinda got all favours when she won well second up. Should get a good run and be right in this.
3.Aridity 1st $5 dropped back in class to R65 last start and won well. This is harder.
2.Royal Ruby ran a solid third second up and fitter now. Gets 3kgs off and likely to be second outer or lead and a be a place chance from there.
1.Awesome Al 2nd hasn’t raced for 51 days and both of his wins came withing 17 and 6 days, so is likely to need this.
The speed map shows Smart Remark likely to get the lead and a moderate tempo likely from there suiting runners in the first half of the field.
Confidence: 2/5 with Smart Remark and Saigon Hot Night both realistic chances
2.Smart Remark ran a game second here on debut when he led off the rail and fought hard for second and third Saltbush Bill, won strongly here next up . had a go at a stronger field at Trentham and battled well for fourth rating 98 and the third horse, Den Bosch, won easily next up. He has been freshened up since then and with the 2kgs off, should get a good run on the pace and be hard to beat. Trainer Andrew Davies told us, ” He was ready to win at the last meeting here but I had to scratch as it was too wet. I really think a lot of this 4 year old and with the 2kgs off, if he can get a good run, he will be hard to beat.”
If he can jump and lead on the rail, which will help, as he is still learning, and the rail is still ok by this time of day, he can win. RP $2.70, $3.60 FF
8.Saigon Hot Night flew home for 4th two back in a strong maiden field. Then last start was held up when he looked to have plenty to offer. Should land midfield or behind it, and the tempo is likely not to be fast, so will need all favours.
7.Springsteen 1st $3 solid second here last start from a good draw when held up just before the turn and ran on well for second although could have won if good enough. Drawn out here and maps to be wide so will need to work to get second outer or snag, so is too short at $3.10 FF
1.Scherzo ran an improver’s second here last start when a fighting second. Drawn out and will need to work early or get caught wide.
13.Alpine Charm ran on nicely on debut in ground that she did not seem happy in. better track with 3kgs off means she could upset.
The Speed map shows Massiff Princess likely to lead again and set an even tempo suiting all runners.
3.Massif Princess looked good winning on debut when 2nd outer and leading midrace, then kept up a strong gallop to win in good time. She looks a strong mare who should win more races as her breeding also suggests. Drawn to get a good run either leading or close to it, and from the strong Fraser Auret stable, be hard to beat.
7.Deep Blue 3rd $2.70 ran a game second in this race last year when leading on the turn and was run down by Platinum Invador, who won the City Of Auckland cup recently. Third was Bonny Ezra who also has gone onto good form. Seems to well here and drawn to get an ideal run behind the leaders. Strong second here last start over 1600m and ready to step up now.
9.Top Of The Straight looked very well last start and got too far back but ran on well. Drawn to get a good run handier and with Lisa choosing him over Vermont, he should be a realistic chance.
10.Vermont has been rating well and gets in on a winning weight of 52.5kgs with the 2kg allowance. She ran on ok last start but Lisa allpress has jumped off her onto Top Of The Straight.
1.Phelan Foxy beat a weak maiden field here on a Slower track. Up in class and clear topweight makes it hard.
The speed map shows Radio Active leading with a few with enough early speed to settle in behind. A moderate to even tempo likely.
3.Radio Active is a half brother to the top horse Helena Baby. His first trial in June 2018 was good when he won leading all the way and showed fight when tackled, but looked a bit weak. So after a 9 months break he looked stronger leading all the way in a trial with a good action and relishing his work. He hasn’t trialed since or been at the Levin Jumpouts, which is unusual for Fraser Auret. He must feel he has him spot on for a winning debut. From the inside draw he maps to lead and the 1400m looks ideal. RP $2.40, $2.60 FF
1.Ha’penny Bridge was an unlucky fourth on debut after being held up 4 back inner and only got clear 200m out and found the line well. He could land around midfield and be harder to beat from there.
11.Rukita 1st $3.20 closed off well here last start from well back and a better track will suit. Will get back again so the tempo will be crucial to her chances.
The speed map shows five runners going forward and an even tempo likely suiting all runners.
4.Outthegate 2nd $3 ran a very good second fresh up here on a slow 8 track to Stumpy then went on to win very well over 1400m . Freshened up with no trials but ran 2nd in a recent jumpout at Levin. Good tempo will suit where he maps to settle last and with a head wind as well, that will allow him to get out wide and put the spinnaker out and sail home down the outside with Ryan Elliot up. RP $5, $9.50 FF
5.Divine Wine looked good winning here fresh up and 1400m will suit even better.
3.Not Santa 1st $3 two solid thirds and fitter now. Likely to be sharing a decent tempo into a head wind down the back straight which won’t help.
9.Showpiece just won last start in a slow speed rating beating a weak field.