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Thursday preview below

Update 11.44 a.m.: No further bets

Good morning,

Some small and tricky races today. The closest runner I got to a Quality bet was Leighs Mate in the last, but the negatives have put me off making him one. he could still blow them away simply based on times, but we will wait and see. I’ll post an update by noon with any head to head or other bets.

With no gallops tomorrow, I’ll be spending most of today analysing the Trentham form. With a decent track and good stake money, it is going to be good racing. I’ll post an early preview by 6 p.m. today and Tweet out when I do, including any early Quality bets.

Good luck,

Neil

Bet of the day Race 2 6.Shanghai Express  $1.70 FF

Value bet of the day Race 8 3.Leighs Mate $4.20 FF

Wanganui

Race 1

The speed map shows no obvious leader and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 1/5 in a tricky opening race. 

3.I Am a Craftsman ran on nicely late second up just behind race rival Run Lee. Fitter now and bigger track will suit.  RP $6, $9.50 FF

Dangers in order:

4.Cage Phyta  has looked like a natural stayer in both of his trials. Parkesy takes the ride over a couple of other choices and from the Fraser Auret stable, will be ready for the 2040m.

9.Run Lee  has had a few chances. Drawn well and fair fifth last start but too short at $3.20 FF

2.Zeroed  looks like a natural stayer and drawn to get a good run.

Race 2

The speed map shows early speed from 1,2 and 3 with a moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first four in running.

Confidence:3/5

6.Shanghai Express  on debut was confidently backed to win on debut and landed in the 1×1, but could not get clear until too late so did well to close off strongly for second to the impressive trial winner, Heaza Looker. She will be improved by that and drawn to land about 4th or 5th and be close enough to get over these. RP $1.80, $1.70 FF

Dangers in order:

5.Irish Heart  ran some nice races last campaign, best being a strong closing second to the smart Mumm’s Jewel and had a quiet trial. But maps to get back here and with a moderate tempo likely, is going to have to move early or get caught out in a sprint home.

2.Blue Arrow  maps to get a good run on the pace and be a place chance.

Race 3

The speed map shows Got The Call and Ristretto likely to share a moderate pace.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Blue Rata Eligius  won easily on debut and ran some nice races rating up to an FR of 101 last campaign. Drawn to get a good run just in behind the leader or 2nd outer, and from there, will be ready to win.

Dangers in order:

2.Ristretto  cost himself with tardy starts. Drawn wide here which will help if he does it again so he can work around them early or take a sit if they go hard. $1.70 is too short.

3.Celtic Wonder drawn to lead and if left alone, could prove hard to peg back.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

2.Prendido  closed off with a nice stride for third on debut after getting back. The step to 1340m suits and Lisa Allpress will give him every chance. RP $2.50, $2.30 FF

Dangers in order:

1.Barocca  ran home strongly on debut and 1340m will suit.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

2.Westfield  had to work too hard to lead on a good pace last start and gad to tire. Better drawn here and weaker field. RP $4.40, $5

Dangers in order:

9.Xplosion ran some nice races in handy fields last campaign. Ok fresh up and drawn to get all favours.

5.Excuse My Hotness good run fresh up and a bit flat second up. 1340m third up looks ideal.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5 in an open field.

2.More Than Most ran on well from last to grab third last start. A better track will suit. RP $4, $4 FF

Dangers in order:

1.Mozzie  fresh up got back from a wide draw, got out wide turning in and kept up a sustained finish to grab second.  1600m suits.

6.Heirloom good run fresh up and battled on a slow track second up. Better surface should help.

4.Torque Time ran some strong placings last campaign. Will be on pace and be a good rough chance.

5.Rox  with a good run could do it.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5 that one of the four below should win this.

3.Soul Vacation should be fitter after two runs back and drawn to get a good run.

Dangers in order:

1.Bruno Magile  strong second fresh up and ok second up. Should be ready now third up.

8.Zouluminous  fair third last start against a couple of handy horses. Drawn to get all favours.

2.Oceanic  racing well enough to include in quaddies.

Race 8

The speed map shows Leighs Mate crossing to lead or maybe 2nd outer if one is determined to hold the lead and also how the track is playing will influence tactics. A moderate tempo likely suiting on pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Leighs Mate  has by far the best adjusted time over 1600m of 1.34.93. The rest rate 16 lengths behind on adjusted times. He got that last start when setting an even tempo and being run down late. The negative is he has had 16 starts for 1 win and 3 placings.  Changing stables in early December to Andre Wallace’s has obviously helped him as he has run three good races since he has had him. Also last start, he had 3kgs off and had a nice weight advantage over the field, this time, with not my favourite rider up, Craig Grylls, he is giving weight to most of them. But he could just lead and blow them away. If the inside is playing favourably, that would help his chances, but if they are winning away from it by this time of day, he could be in trouble and he seems best when allowed to hug that rail like he did last start.   RP $3.50, $4.20 FF I was going to make him a Quality bet but the negatives tell me no.

Dangers in order:

5.Porotene Charm won well over 1200m and jumps straight to 1600m. Drawn to get a good run though and looks the main danger.

4.Wonder No More  is fitter now and has won over 1600m with Lisa up.

2.That’s Incranibull  fitter now and drawn to get a good run.

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!