Saturday January 11 2020 preview below

 

Update 11.50 a.m. No Quality bets

Head to heads at Trentham

Race 6 Hunta Pence $1.85 to beat Sergeant Blast

Race 8 Guilada $1.75 to beat Germanicus

Suggested Multi The two head to heads above and Race 7 Marscapone to finish in the first four at $1.50 FF for a place ( TAB bookies paying out to four places.) $10 returns $48.56 ( Ben, who won Heads Up , has $20 on this multi to win $97.10 )

The Fixed price quinella with Harl)ech and Marscapone at $8.50 is worth a few dollars also.

 

Update 7.45 a.m. Saturday

No Quality bets so far. There may be in the update at noon though.

Update: 5 p.m. Friday: I’ve previewed all of the Trentham races with speed maps, courtesy of Formpro Ratings. I’ve found it hard to find any value there, and after going through my Australian Blackbookers, I can’t find any value there either! So no Quality bets so far. I’ll post an update by 8 a.m. Saturday and noon, where they may be one or two.

Heads Up can be heard here where The Goat and I review the first week of racing, preview the two big races from Trentham and talk about punting etc. Plus you can win a $20 multi bet.

Bet of the day Trentham Race 4 4.Tavi Mac $2.25 FF

Value bet of the day Trentham Race 5 1.Waisake $6 FF

Speed Map Special Trentham Race 2 1.Go James $4 FF

Sneaky of the day Trentham Race 6 5.Hunta Pence $16 and $3.40 ( Four place dividends )

Trentham preview

PFR= Predicted Formpro Rating

NTR= Needs to Rate

Diff= Difference

Race 1

The speed map shows Miss Contessa and Creative genius sharing a moderate tempo suiting runners in the first half of the race.

Race Rating 105 on 57kgs

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

2.Creative Genius  ran a strong 3rd last start at Ellerslie and before that ran Pris De Fir close who went on to win the Rich Hill Mile. He maps to get the ideal run on a moderate tempo as well with top rider Mick Dee up. PFR 106, NTR 106, Diff = 0 RP $5

Dangers:

3.Miss Contessa should get a soft time either leading or sitting outside it. She is doubtful in a solidly run 1600m but the tempo should enable her to see it out with the 2kgs off her back a help.

6.Our Hail Mary 1st $3  last start over 1400m was being scrubbed up well out and unwound late for third. The blinkers come off and third up will appreciate the 1600m. Likely to get back and a the moderate tempo means she will need a good track into it.

1.Skyphyta  has been freshened up and has won over 1600m beating a handy field. If he can land 3 back inner, he could be in this despite giving them all weight.

Race 2

The speed map shows a good early speed and could set up for a closer despite the small field.

Race Rating 105 on 58kgs

Confidence:2/5

1.Go James  got well back off a very fast tempo last start and drove hard late to just get up over Magico. The tempo looks strong again so he is likely to settle back and down the chute, should be able to balance up when he likes and come charging at these late. PFR 105, NTR 105, Diff = 0  RP $3.80, $4 FF

Dangers:

4.Magico  did very well two back when just going down to Go James. She had her chance last start but was caught late over 1000m. If she can lead and doesn’t get taken on to hard, she meets Go James 2.5kgs off which would normally turn the tables with just a nose to turn around. So it just depends on what takes her on. PFR 105, NTR 104, Diff + 1

6.Riding The Waves 1st $2.70  has been racing too hard over longer distances and fading. This will be run at a faster more suitable tempo and with a good run in behind the speed, could test these.

3.The Swiss Maestro  beat a weaker field here last year. The good tempo will suit him.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

3.Gentleman Jack  was unlucky on debut when blocked for a run then second up, was caught 3 wide in the open 800m out , led with 200m to go but Opalescence with the better run in the trail, came through late and outfinished him. He was coming back on the line though. Drawn to get a better run and fitter now and more experienced, so looks nice value. Backed in early from $13 to $9.50 FF. RP $6

Dangers:

9.Opalescence 1st $2.80 got all favours last start and won well. Maps to get a similar run.

1.Piaggio drawn wide and will need luck from there. looks a nice galloper though.

4.Boomer Hill  looks ready to fire up on debut. Drawn awkwardly though.

Race 4

The speed map shows three runners looking to lead early and a few looking to get handy, so an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence:3/5

4.Tavi Mac 1st $2.10 was a dominant winner here over 1200m then closed off hard late at Awapuni over 1200m. The step to 1400m looks ideal and drawn to get an ideal run. Plus he has that will to win. RP $2.40, $2.25 FF

Dangers:

3.Satu Lagi  is racing strongly without winning. Gets 3kgs off which could make all the difference.

6.Lady Kartel drawn to get a cosy trip and be a place chance.

1.More Wonder drops back in class fresh up and if ready should be right in this.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Waisake  won this race last year in better time than the Open handicap. With four runs back and the way he found the line last start, he is the one to beat, and the blinkers going on will sharpen him up as well. Samantha Collett is two from two on him. RP $4.50

Dangers:

8.Prince Turbo  ran a very good 2nd last start after covering plenty of ground. Peaking now and right in this.

2.He No Opilio drawn to get all favours and racing well.

Race 6

The Speed map shows Camino Rocoso and Sergeant Blast leading and they can get keen so an even pace is likely at least.

Race Rating 112 at 55kgs

Confidence: 2/5

5.Hunta Pence ran a top race in the Wanganui Cup when trailing a strong tempo and led 100m out only to be nailed by Sentimental Miss and third was Platinum Invador, who then won the City of Auckland Cup impressively. Then next up he wasn’t suited by the Slow track but still ran a good fifth. He can rate higher and looks well placed here to do that. Maps to get out and get a good run about 4th and get an ideal run. PFR 113, NTR 112, Diff +1 RP $8, $15 FF

Dangers:

3.Fiscal Fantasy got all favours at Ellerslie and looked like she was going to come through and win near the fence but couldn’t quite get there. Rated 115 and needs to rate 112 to win this so is well placed but $2.20 is too short.

7.Masetto  ran a strong second to Justamaiz in the Waikato Cup and drawn to get a good run. Has trained on very well.

2.Dolcetto  ran a game third covering ground at Awapuni with 60kgs. Drops to 55.5kgs here so in well.

Race 7

The speed map shows Travelling Light and Our Creed likely to lead out with Callsign mav maybe being relegated to 3 back inner. Riodini looks like getting 2nd outer. Harlech is likely to be 3 back inner early and maybe 4 back inner and last after 400 metres. Marscapone will likely look to want to  land in front of Holy Mongolemperor ( Scratched Friday morning) and could be in the 1×1. Our Creed has averaged 12.18 per 200m in both of his last two starts in front by getting a move on early, then backing off midrace, then sprinting again before the turn. Cameraon Lammas may try and stack them a bit more this time as he has some very good horses behind him and he would have a better chance of placing if he stacked them as long as he can.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Harlech if you were confident of an even tempo at least, he would be clearly on top. But it is unlikely to be run at that. From the inside draw, he is likely to be 3 back inner or last inner and if it turns out to be a sprint home, he is no $2.50 chance. But if he can get off the fence early and be one off, Mick Dee can gradually improve wider and be close enough to beat them. It is  a race of tactics and should be great to watch- not a great betting race with a few chances depending on how it is run. RP $2.60, $2.50 FF

Dangers:

4.Marscapone maps to end up in the 1×1 which will be the perfect place to be for a big strong galloper like him. he has won here before in a very good speed rating and has gone on with it since. 1600m will suit him ideally.

7.Travelling Light 1st $3  didn’t see out the 1600m of the 1000 Guineas in front. She seems a better filly with a sit and she is likely to get a nice trail behind Our Creed and and if it turns out to be a sprint home, they will be hard pressed to outsprint her.

2.Riodini  it took a very good horse to beat him in Dragons Leap at Ellerslie and he is likely to end up 2nd outer as he jumped first at Ellerslie and got a nice run. Trainer said he will be ridden quieter today so will likely snag to 5th outer.

Race 8

The speed map shows Indah, Hinerangi and La Bella Rosa looking to lead with a few looking to get handy so an even tempo likely with a few likely to be caught wide early that will go forward.

Confidence: 2/5

11.Guillada  has always looked like a good mare and showed that last start when covering extra ground and just going down at Te Rapa beating Yearn, who ran a game second in the Rich Hill mile. She was beaten here by Jessiegee but that was on a heavy track which didn’t suit her. Drawn to settle midfield behind a decent tempo and if she can get out and wound up 200m out, she has the power to get over these. RP $, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Scott Base did well fresh up and was ok behind Julius second up. 1600m third up looks ideal.

16.Indah  looked good winning last start and drawn to get a good run.

8.Germanicus 1st $7.70   has looked good coming through the grades. Needs a perfect ride to win though.

Race 9

The speed map shows speed out wide and few looking to get handy, so an even tempo likely at least.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Jewel Of The Patch 1st $4.70   closed off strongly fresh up and just blew out late for second. The time was very good and the form has been strong out of it. He has always shown the ability to win more races and he will be ready to win. May land closer than the map shows as he was 6th outer last start from a similar draw. RP $4.50, $5 FF

Dangers: 

6.Maduro looked good winning here two starts back in this grade. Didn’t let down as expected last start but was up in class. Back in class and drawn ideally.

2.Ofa Oresome closed off strongly fresh up and gets 3kgs off.

11.Powerball  2nd $5.80 qu $43 fitter now third up and 1400m suits with Chris Johnson on board.