Home » Results » Wednesday, 15 January 2020 preview below

Wednesday, 15 January 2020 preview below

Update 11.14: No head to head or quality bets. Suggested late quaddies below:

$24 for 100%

R5   1, 2
R6    1, 2, 5, 8
R7    2, 4, 7
R8    1
$24 for 50% saver yes $200 returned
R5   1, 2
R6   1, 2, 5, 8
R7    2, 4, 7
R8   5, 6

 

The track is a Dead 6 but expect an upgrade with 23 degrees and a light wind forecast for the day.

Rail is out 6m from the 800m and at this meeting last year, 6 of the 8 winners came from the first four in running and in the last four races, being away from the rail became an advantage.

You can eneter the Tauranga Punters Club here ( closes Thursday night )

An update will be posted by noon.

Bet of the day Race 1 4.Nothing Compares $2.30 Ff

Value bet of the day Race 8 1.Scutar $4.40 FF

 

Race 1

The speed map shows plenty of speed with four leaders and Felix Faure likely to set a decent tempo setting it up for a closer again.

Confidence:2/5

4.Nothing Compares  won strongly over 2000m at Taranaki in the same time as the R65 race the same day. Ran on well for fourth in a stronger R65 field. Then last start against good fillies, settled of the pace in an on pace race, got checked just before turning in, but found the line well and was held up late. This is a weaker field by a few lengths, so with the decent tempo likely, she just needs to relax and do as little as possible, and Craig Grylls, should be able to pick his moment to move to get over them. RP $2.70, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

2.Capellani  was shuffled back at the wrong time last start and ran on well for fifth.

1.Motuman fitter now third up and goes well here. 2kgs off.

Race 2

The speed map shows Foogayzee going forward and a handful looking to be near the lead. A moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Matter Of fact  got too far back at new Plymouth last start but once balanced up, closed off strongly for third in good time and the fastest last 600m of the race in 35.90. He has always looked like a middle distance would suit so he gets his chance here to show that with the side winkers going on and from a good draw. he has the early speed to make use of it too. RP $3.50, $ FF $4

Dangers:

4.Foogayzee  has been rating well. Drawn wide and maps to got forward. If he doesn’t have to do too much work then he is a realistic chance.

5.Patsy’s Lad did well last start when slow out, got back but sustained a good run for third running the fastest last 600m

Race 3

The speed map shows Blizzing Away likely to lead and could get a soft lead like he did last start. Inside should still be ok.

Confidence: 1/5 in a race with five chances.

1.Blizzing Away showed good early speed to lead last start at his first run over ground. He fought back hard when headed by the smart Meghan. He should improve off that and be a nice eachway chance in an open race. RP $5

Dangers:

8.Hey Soul Sister ran a strong second here last start and will have been kept up to the mark for this .

6.Reggiewood ran on strongly fresh up to almost win over 1600m. The blinkers go on which may or may not be a good thing stepping to 2000m second up and is likely to be back off a moderate tempo.

2.Son Of Anna Kay  did well last start when 3 wide and had to work to get 2nd outer and fought hard for second. Will be improved by that too.

Race 4

The speed map shows Island Bay leading with five others looking to be on the pace. So a good tempo all the way maybe suiting a runners tucked in behind or off the pace.

Confidence: 2/5 in a fast race with a few chances.

4.Heart Of Stone ran a close second in fast time two starts back then led all the way from barrier 1 last start. Island Bay should lead and with the other three runners inside her looking to lead or be second outer, she may elect to take a sit as she can take a few strides to get going. If she can slot in 4th outer, with the fast tempo likely, she could get over these late.

Dangers:

2.Red Choix goes well fresh and drawn to get a nice run off the good pace and come with the last go at them.

3.Pokuru’s Gift could also be that horse who snags from a wide draw and gets a nice track into it, especially if the inside is off. With Opie up, you could not count him out.

7.Folk Dress  is likely to snag to last and be suited by the tempo, but there are some good horses to get past, so $4.20 is too short.

Race 5

The speed map shows plenty of early speed right across the board with good speed out wide so an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Our Alley Cat put up a big effort here on debut when she sat 3 wide in the open, led on the turn, was headed by the favourite, but showed toughness to almost come back and win. Drawn wide again, so needs luck to get a good run.RP $4

Dangers:

2.Unlaced  was set up for a winning debut but just found one too good on the day. Showed good ability though and with improvement likely from a  good draw, looks the main danger.

4.Hibernia Sea  last start didn’t show a lot of early speed again and got back and ran on well but could not passrace rival Our Alley Cat who had a harder run.  Despite the draw advantage, she is too short at $3.40 getting back again.

Race 6

The speed map shows early speed from five runners in the middle and a moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the race.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Snakeye looked good in his trials when running a couple of thirds with a bit to offer. On debut drew pout, showed good early speed but had to snag to 8th 3w cover, and ran on ok after getting tightened up. Strong galloper who should land in a  good spot on the pace and be hard to keep out. RP $3.50, $4.40 FF

Dangers:

5.Tangodanzer  ran a  distant second to the very smart festivity showing good improvement off his first two starts. Drawn to get a good run.

1.Operator  good third fresh up and will be improved by that.

8.Shibuya Kosaten ran a strong third here second up last campaign. If inside is ok, can be in it.

Race 7

The speed map shows early speed from a few near the inside and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Outtalign I Am  won strongly here last start and the 1400m will suit. Drawn the inside which may not help by this time of day but looks a nice horse, so needs a good ride. RP $4

Dangers:

4.Marroni  looked good winning at Tauranga. Quiet trial recently when trailing and going well but couldn’t get out with the rider almost biting the dust. Opie will give him every chance.

7.Stateline will be a quick improver off that close up fifth last start.

Race 8

The speed map shows three runners going forward and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Scutar did well when second last campaign when he got too far back and charged home for second in good time. Looked ready to win fresh up in his recent trial running home full of running. Drawn to get back but away from the rail and get over these pout in the centre of the track. RP $3.40, $4.40Ff

Dangers:

5.Americo  two strong thirds and is the one Scutar has to run down.

6.Excitonic obvious chance being fitter now from the strong Te Akau stable.

About Neil Davis

Avatar
Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!