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Thursday preview below

Update 11.15 a.m.

Two head to heads:

Race 3 Reliable Miss $1.50 to beat Capital Gains

Race 4 Shady Grey $1.85 to beat Celtic Wonder

Multi returns $27.70 for every $10 yes 

New Plymouth

No Quality bets. Only six races today but some interesting races with a little bit of value. I’ll post an update by noon.

You can still enter the Tauranga Punters Club tomorrow here. It closes tonight.

Bet of the day Race 3 4.Reliable Miss $3.20 FF

Value bet of the day Race 6 9.Mozart’s Mistress $3.90 FF

Race 1

The speed map shows two runners likely to share the lead and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence:2/5

6.Saigon Hot Night  three starts back here flew late for 4th in a strong maiden. Then she was held up when looking to have a bit to offer. Last start over 1600m got back on the inner, lost about 3 lengths 1000m out but rallied well in the slower inner ground for 6th at Otaki. The step to 2000m looks ideal and the blinkers go on which will help. RP $4.00, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

1.Touch The Clouds  has been thereabouts in his last few starts and Ralph Manning has gone for the 4kgs to give him an edge. His last start was very good when drawing wide, like he has today, snagging back and did a lot more work than the impressive winner, Mongolian Dynasty for second. Will get back again and with a track into it, has to be the one Saigon has to keep out.

Race 2

The speed map shows two runners sharing the pace and a moderate one predicted suiting on pace runners.

Confidence:2/5 but one of the two below will win this.

3.Aquila Star  won very well here last start and with 2kgs off, should be a realistic chance again.

Dangers:

1.Overthetop  gets up to 1800m which will suit and the blinkers go on.

Race 3

The speed map shows Capital Gains getting a soft lead but raced keenly last start- blinkers come off so may settle better. Alexandrite was ridden on the pace last start but may snag this time from a wide draw as he looks better chasing. Hard to see them going better than a moderate tempo here with the lack of on pace runners, so suits on pace runners.

Confidence: 3/5

4.Reliable Miss last start here got a squeeze up early on and got back off a moderate tempo. Then she was held up till after turning in, then had to angle wider to get a run 150m out. Once balanced up she really got into her work closing off in the fastest last 600m. Fresh up from an inside draw she showed good early speed to trail and fought well for a close fourth. Fitter third up now and maps to get a good run trailing Capital Gains on a moderate tempo and she does look the one to beat. Trainer Allan Sharrock has a good opinion of her.  RP $2.50, $3.00 FF

Dangers:

8.Tuppence  closed off hard late last start and will be fitter for this. 1600m will suit but a middle distance looks like it will suit even better later. May get caught off the pace and be in trouble in a sprint home.

7.Alexandrite disappointed last start but it may have been second up pains. Good run on debut when 2nd to the smart Not Ideal who won next up again.  May be better snagging and closing late but tempo likely to be against.

2.Capital Gains sat 2nd outer last start and battled on ok. Raced a bit keenly then and likely to lead but with the blinkers off this time, may settle better.

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

2.Shady Grey  won well here second up after getting a good run second outer. In each of her other three runs this campaign she has covered the most ground in the open. her run two starts back was very good as she was coming back on the line in a stronger field beating race rival Enrichment. This time she should get a glimpse of the inside rail from barrier two and maps to get a nice trail behind a moderate speed and be the one to beat. $4.00, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Rose Bowl closed off strongly fresh up over 1200m. 1400m should suit and maps to get all favours.

5.Enrichment was held up last start and when out ran on ok for third. Gets 3kgs off which will help against Rose Bowl. Has been backed in early from $2.70 to $2.30 which is too short.

3.Spondulux  may get a soft sit 2nd outer and has run time here over this distance.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

4.Beaudz Well  ran on nicely for third fresh up behind a handy horse. 1400m will suit now and drawn to get a good run.

Dangers:

7.Its So Easy two good thirds behind very good horses. Fitter now and strikes a weak field.

6.Enduring Love  has run a few good placings and from the wide draw, will probably run another.

1.Joshua One Nine fair run on debut after covering the most ground then battled well here next up. Fitter now.

Race 6

The speed map shows three runners looking to lead and an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence:2/5 that either 9 or 7 will win this.

9.Mozart’s Mistress  was run down late by two nice horses after setting an even tempo here last start. One of them, Excitonic won well yesterday next up. So she is going to be spot on third up for this.Drawn to lead or be second outer and on 52kgs now, she is going to notice that and be the one to run down.

Dangers:

7.Melody Roxx  looked very good in her trial when getting well back, looping the field to lead wide 300m out and kept going under her own steam while the others were being ridden out. Drawn wide here and likely to get back again, but with a track into it with Sam Weatherley’s experience, could give her the winning advantage with an even tempo up front.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!