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Friday preview below

Update 11.08 a.m. No further bets

Good morning,

Heads Up, with new vision now,  is here with a preview of the two big races from Ellerslie, your chance to win a $20 multi bet, plus more.

One Quality bet today. Race 1 5.One Kotukustreet $2.30 FF with 4 units . Update by noon.

A subscriber asked if I could comment on The First Call Special of Not An Option, Kiwi Ida and Harlech all finishing in the top four at $4. A Multi on the three would produce $3.64 so at this stage there is a bit of value. The query is Kiwi Ida first time right handed and at Ellerslie. It is not a bet I will be taking so I don’t recommend it.

Bet of the day Race 1 5.One Kotukustreet $2.30 Ff Quality bet 4 units at $2.30 FF 2nd 

Value bet of the Day  Race 4 4.Acutus $4 FF 1st $4.10 

Multi of the day Race 1 5.One Kotukustreet $2.30 Ff and Race 2 6. Levante $1.60 $10 returns $36.80

Te Aroha

Race 1

Confidence:4/5 Quality bet 

5.One Kotukustreet   looks well placed here to lead all the way after two strong runs over 1200m in very good speed ratings. She gets 3kgs off and is right at peak fitness here. She has the best speed ratings over 1200m.  From barrier 3, she should be able to lead comfortably with Hammer King happy to trail and Memories Only sliding over 2nd outer. From there, she should be able to tick along in front at her own pace and will be very hard to run down. RP $1.70, $2.30

Dangers:

1.Hammer King  should get a cosy trial and be the best quinella chance.

6.Mekelle  won well over 1400m last start and is best suited to a strongly run race where she can wind up  but that is unlikely here.

7.Appelant  ran a good 4th in the KM 2yo last year and trialed up nicely. Maps to settle 7th of the seven runners and with a moderate tempo likely, will find it hard to run down fit horses.

Race 2

Confidence:4/5

6.Levante 1st $1.60  has been very impressive in both of her two starts. She possesses a top turn of foot, as her closing sectionals have shown and the 1400m looks ideal here. There looks to be enough pace up front for her to snag back and bide her time until she can get balanced up and should be able to get over these in the last 100 metres. RP $1.60, $1.70 FF

Dangers:

4.Osaka  won well last start and is a big strong fella. Best quinella chance with Levante.

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

4.Byzantine  was well ridden to win last start and is probably better ridden off the pace. From the wide draw, he is likely to be ridden off the pace and can get over these late. RP $4

Dangers:

2.Swisswatch   is likely to sit outside Money Trail and be the one Byzantine has to run down.

7.Rocket Fuel  with a good run has to be in this after a strong second last start.

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

1.Acutus 1st $4 looked ready to win at Tauranga but drew wide but still ran a top race after covering ground 3 wide in the open. From a better draw, he can land in a winning position and be hard to beat. RP $4.00

Dangers:

4.Ripped  had to be good to win on debut after having the hardest trip. Wide draw no help though.

Race 5

Confidence:2/5

6.Inscription  goes well on the fresh side and should get a good run. She has been training well and possess one of the fastest last 200m in the country. RP $4

Dangers:

2.Weaponry  has been racing very well on the pace. Likely to be on the pace and be hard to beat again.

5.Gino Severini 1st $4  had to win with the soft lead he got at Ellerslie. Won’t get it all his own way this time though but 3kgs off will help again.

7.Scorpz  winning well but likely to need this.

Race 6

Confidence:

5.Jip Jip Rock  won very well at Elelrslie then ran on okay last start. Drawn to get a good run and be the one to beat again. RP $4.00

Dangers:

8.Incantesimo has run two strong races and drawn to get every chance.

9.Sunburst  closed off hard late in an on pace race last start. Drawn to land closer.

2.Shezathinka  drawn to get a good run and gets 4kgs off.

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

6.Leaderboard  looked good in Christchurch and will have improved perfectly for this race over 2200m from his good 1600m run last start. RP $4.50

Dangers:

3.Sherwood Forest  is looking for more ground now and should get a good run.

1.Paisley Park  won well last start and drawn to get an ideal run.

7.Joe’s Legacy  game second to Paisley Park and meets her 1.5kgs better off.

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

2.Kissinger 1st $4.50  has looked good in both of his runs and ran on like he needs a middle distance now. RP $4.50, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

9.Iskander  will find this easier and with a soft lead, could upset.

4.Mighty Connor  better run last start and drawn to get all favours.

1.Take It Out racing ok in better fields. Drawn to get a good run with 1kg off.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!