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Saturday, 1st February preview below

Update 11.33 :

Head to heads

New Plymouth

Race 1 La Bella Rosa $1.70 to beat Elate No beaten by going too fast in front

Race Race 7 Guillada $1.60 to beat Obsessive yes 

The GOATS best sports bet is Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 $1.82 in the Superbowl final on Monday in the American Football

Pete’s $20 Multi from Heads up is on the above three to return $100

Update 7.50 a.m.

Good morning,

No Quality bets so far today. But there may be in the update at noon in Australia or the Head to Heads.

Good luck,

Neil

Bet of the day Race 3 5.Coventina Bay $2.60 FF 1st $2.20

Value bet of the day Race 5 2.Barney Rubble $4.20 FF

Speed map Special  Race 6 1.Bergamot $3.60 FF

Sneaky of the day Race 7 2.Mongolian Marshall $5 FF

Lay of the day Race 7 1.Pris De Fer $2.80 too many negatives to justify that price.

 

Early Saturday preview

Update 1.15 p.m.

No Quality bets so far. Next update is 5 p.m. The Heads Up vidcast, where the GOAT and I review KM day, preview the big race at New Plymouth and you get your chance to win a $20 multi,  can be seen here

 

New Plymouth

Race 1

The speed map shows good early speed from four runners and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

2.Tavi Mac has looked impressive in his five wins showing that determination to win. gets 3kgs off and maps to be ridden quietly and track into it so needsa good ride from the 3kg apprentice. As long as she can give him a clear passage, he should get over these. RP $2.00, $1.85

Dangers:

5.Sir Nate  ran a solid third to Tavi Mac last start and drawn to get a good run.

8.La Bella Rosa  has been racing in harder fields. Drops back in class on a nice weight and will go forward. The upsetter.

4.Sherrif  is an interesting runner with such a long break and no trials form. Good horse and one to watch in the birdcage and betting.

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

3.Our Hail Mary  last start drew wide and was ridden forward which was a winning move. She has a lovely stride on her and with the 2kgs off, looks well placed again to get a good run near the pace and be hard to beat. RP $2.70, $2.70

Dangers: 

6.Karalion  was beaten in a sit sprint race last start. Drawn to be the main danger.

4.Aridity  goes well here and drawn to get a good run.

Race 3

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and at least an even tempo likely suiting off pace runners.

Confidence: 3/5

5.Coventina Bay  1st $2.00 has looked very good all the way through her career. She is going to win more races than these and maps to get the tempo up front that she needs to unleash her powerful last 200 metres. RP $2.20, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

6.Pokuru’s Gift  is a big horse and will likely tuck in behind and his strength in a fast run race will be an asset.

1.Stumpy  drawn to get a good run and fights hard.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

4.Perfect Scenario  looked good running third on debut at Awapuni when he was handy but was held up early in the straight before getting out and once balanced up, found the line strongly for third to Opalescence, who won next up. He looks a definite improver out of that and drawn 1 with Opie up, is going to get every chance to win. RP $2.50, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

3.Boomer Hill  ran a game second to Opalescence on debut at Trentham. Drawn to land in a winning spot and looks the main danger.

2.Trident didn’t get all favours last start and drawn well.

Race 5

The speed map shows four runners looking to be on pace early and a moderate to even tempo likely from there.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Barney Rubble  closed off strongly for 4th here last start although he ran out of room late. The fifth horse has since won. 1400m suits ideally now and Sam Collett jumps back on. RP $3.50, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

4.Son Of Bielski  looked good winning on debut. Should land on the pace and be the one Barney has to run down.

1.Even Chance  got a good run here last start and was too strong. This is harder and he will have to cover more ground.

Race 6

The speed map shows Darcee Que, Aquila Star and Bergamot looking to get on speed and a moderate to even tempo from there.

1.Bergamot  looked good winning left handed at Matamata over 1600m drawing away to win in a good speed rating. Then ran a battling 5th against some nice 3yo boys at Ellerslie. Last start at Ellerslie, she showed good early speed and after working to get 2nd outer, she was asked to go a bit too late and fought back well for second. Strong filly and with her early speed, she can slide over here and back left handed, she will hard to beat. RP $2.80, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

10.Kabu  looked good winning last start being wide all the way. Drawn to be right on the pace and that will be the place to be.

2.Aloft has looked good winning her two races and being a half sister to top mare Supera, she will eat up the 1800m. Will likely get back and need luck though as the tempo will be against.

9.In Fashion  hit the line hard against a good one last start. Drawn out and needs luck but worth having in combos.

 

Race 7

The speed map shows Aim Smart and Overtheriver likely to look to lead and a moderate to even tempo likely. Sergeant Blast was ridden off the pace last start and ran on well. He could be ridden with a sit again from a nice draw and a couple of others likely to look to lead.

Confidence: 2/5 in an open race where the favourite, Pris De Fer is well unders at $2.80 creating value in others, especially Mongolian Marshall and Guillada.

2.Mongolian Marshal will find this easier than the Group 1s he has been in last two starts both rating FR115. Last start after a 23 day break he just seemed to blow out in the last 100 metres after a perfect run. He rated an FR118 when running third to Melody Belle in the Windsor Park Plate beating Wyndspelle and Shadows Cast who both went on to strong form. He has drawn to land on the pace without doing too much work and on 56kgs. With that weight he needs to rate 115, which he has done in his last two starts but rated 118 in the Windsor, so he does look very well placed to win. RP $3.80, $5.00 FF

Dangers:

14.Guillada looked well placed to win last start but she was on the back foot when the gates opened and got back and settled 3 back inner. Then she was blocked for room till too late looking to have a bit in hand and finished 1.5lengths from the winner rating an FR of 112. She needs to rate 113 to win this and from the draw should land around 3 back inner again and the 1800m suits ideally. She beat Pris De Fer comfortably fresh up at Taupo and meets him 4kgs better off. RP $5, $8 FF

4.Scott Base  is ready to peak now after three runs back. Hit the front too soon last start and fought well for third. Is likely to get back though and with a moderate tempo likely on this tighter track, it is hard to back him with great confidence.

1.Pris De Fer just keeps on winning but it has all been right handed. His only start left handed at Taupo fresh up, he was easily beaten by Guillada and meets her 4kgs worse off.  This is a tough field on a tight track from a wide draw where he will need luck being topweight now. $2.80 is just too short.

Race 8

The speed map shows Overthetop and Torque Time sharing a moderate tempo suiting runners in the first half of the race.

Confidence:3/5

5.Reggiewood 1st $2.60 and killed them!  looked very good winning at Rotorua at his first go over ground. His closing last 600m of 34.49 was the fastest of the three races over that distance that day and compared very well to shorter run races on the day. He is a strong looking 3yo and will likely settle 3 back inner or worse and need luck to cut a path through them, but if he gets the gaps in time, he will win. RP $2.60, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

3.River Run  is the obvious danger and should relish the 2000m now.

4.Red Rufus  is a natural stayer and drawn well.

 

Otago

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

1.Who Dares Wins   is the best off by far with the WFA conditions and won well fresh up. He had a quiet trial since and if he can get a decent run from the wide draw, should be very hard to keep out. RP $2.50

Dangers:

7.Tobilicious  has looked very good winning his last three. Big step up but with a good run, should be in this.

2.Gallant Boy drops back to 1600m which suits and drawn to get a good run near the pace.

4.Son Of Maher  will find this easier than Trentham.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!