Home » Results » Saturday February 8th preview below

Saturday February 8th preview below

Update race 9 1.Star Tsar has definitely fined down and looks ready to win again since his impressive debut win.

Update: Volpe Veloce is very fit and strong looking. Hard to see her finishing outside the first four! An intriguing race.
update race 7 6.Rock On Wood could not be fitter. Ready to do his thing.
update race 6 11.Carribean Rose looks very fit and relaxed
update race 4 tough race. Jennifer Eccles does look the best and should get the right run 1st

update race 3 2.Polzeath is very fit and on his toes which is good to see as he is likely to lead and that has been the pattern so far. Trainer confident Rip Em Up can win and is the most relaxed in the birdcage but may get caught out in a sprint home
Update race 2 1.Rocket Fuel looks very focussed and fit. 1st

Update: race 1

1.On Display looks very fit and ready 1st

No further bets recommended but I will be updating before most races today

Update 8.42 a.m. The bookies have made Rock On Wood the Starting gates Special at $3 and a refund if he finishes 2nd or 3rd until 9.30 a.m. this morning. Here is the link to that bet That is definitely worth a bet and we will have another 4 units on at $3 for that. 3rd so money back

Good morning,

Some really good fields for Te Rapa. I’m staying clear of Riccarton for various reasons.

Bet of the day Te Rapa Race 8 8.Volpe Veloce $1.75 FF for first four placing 6th disappointing run (

Value bet of the day Te Rapa Race 7 6.Rock On Wood $4.40 into $4 now. ( Quality bet ) 3rd after getting too far back

Speed map Special Te Rapa race 9 1.Star Tsar $3.10 Ff

Sneaky of the day Te Race 8 8.Volpe Veloce $11 and $1.75 FF

Multi of the day Rock On Wood to win at $4, Volpe Veloce $1.75 place Ff and Star Tsar to win at $3.10 returns $21.70 for every $10

Pedro, who won last week’s multi on heads Up, has the above multi to return $430.70

 

Heads Up can be viewed here with a preview of the two big races at Te Rapa plus your chance to win a $20 multi

The GOATS best sports bet is Friday night at 7 p.m. The Highlanders -7.5 at $1.95

Te Rapa

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

4.Snapper  looked good leading all the way in his trial in one of the faster times of the heats. Needs to begin well, and if he does, is the one to beat. RP $3.40

Dangers:

5.Brazier  well bred and if he begins well, can test Snapper.

1.On Display ran home strongly for fourth on debut from a wide draw. Led all the way in his trial win looking good.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

6.Mekelle  battled well for 4th last start in a race thjat did not suit. She needs a truly run race and 1400m which she gets here. Danielle will give her every chance. RP $4.00

Dangers:

1.Rocket Fuel  looked good winning last start and is a real danger.

5.Pinched  just won fresh up but looked an improver and 1400m will suit.

7.Boogie Easy could get a soft sit 2nd outer or even lead here, and she could upset as she fights hard.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

7.Rip Em Up  is relishing her racing and is a good chance of getting her hat trick with the lighter weight. RP $3.00, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

2.Polzeath could get a cheap lead here and steal it.

Race 4

The Speed map shows Brahma Sunset very likely to lead and set a moderate tempo suiting the first four runners.

Confidence:2/5 in a tricky race.

1.Loire is a strong filly suited to 2000m now. Finished off strongly at Trentham and in the small field, should get her chance to challenge them 200m out and prove too strong. RP $2.60, $2.80

Dangers:

2.Jennifer Eccles drawn to trail and looks the main danger ina  what could be a sprint from the 600m.

3.Showbeel  is tough and with a  good sit 2nd outer, is likely to prove hard to run down.

5.Brahma Sunset  is suited to leading on the fence and if left alone for long enough with Leith Innes being a top front running rider, they could pinch it.

 

Race 5

The speed map shows Peloton and Pimlico sharing a moderate tempo.

 

Confidence: 3/5

6.Travelling Light looks the obvious one now with Dragon leap out. Should settle last and be too fast in a sprint home. RP $1.90

Dangers:

7.Two Iliicit has been racing well and beat Dragon Leap doing things right at Ellerslie. may trail and prove hard to beat.

 

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

5.Monlula  won very well third up at his first go over ground. Natural stayer and from the inside draw, can get a good run again and be the one to beat. RP $5

Dangers:

1.Thomas Aquinas improver’s second last start. Drawn well, fitter and gets 2kgs off.

11.Carribbean Rose is looking for more ground now.

10.Meghan  is a promising filly and with a good ride could do it.

8.Motuman  is getting better with each run and with the 3kgs off this time and a good run likely, could upset.

 

Race 7

The speed map shows at least four runners going forward and with Camino Rocosso in, he will ensure at least an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence: 4/5

6.Rock On Wood  last start at Trentham would have won comfortably if he had got out in time. He has always shown the ability with his closing sectionals and speed ratings to win a Group 1 and this race over 2000m, with a good tempo likely, is perfect for him now. He is a real athletic type who settles well and and should land about 3 back inner and get every chance. He has beaten Beauden before comfortably and he has been up for a long time, True Enough got all favours to just win at Ellerslie, and Luvaluva is a good mare but I really doubt that she can hold out Rock On Wood in the last 200 metres. I have no doubt about him relaxing and seeing out a strongly run 2000 metres. Only bad luck can beat him again and with the gaps very likely to come in time, he is a class above these and I’m very confident he can win at excellent value. RP $2.20, $4.40 FF ( 4 units at $4.40 FF )

Dangers:

2.Beauden has been racing very well but has been up since October last year. He has drawn out a bit but should go forward and with Rock On Wood behind him, I feel Rocky will beat him again.

8.Luvaluva  has been winning well in Australia against fair company and is a tough mare. Drawn out and will very likely snag back and work into it. But I feel the above two will beat her home.

3.On The Rocks  won this last year and was unlucky in the Thorndon. Peaking nicely for this third up.

Race 8

The speed map shows The Mitigator setting a moderate tempo and Volpe Veloce is likely to stay off the rail early allowing More Wonder to take up the trail. Enzo’s Lad should work forward and give cover to Volpe Veloce. Avantage can land 3 back outer and Te Akau Shark is likely to settle 3 back inner. A moderate tempo is likely suiting on pace runners. An excellent race of tactics.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Volpe Veloce put up a big effort last start at Ellerslie when 4 wide in the open and was beaten by Kiwi Ida who had a much better run. Their last 800m were almost identical so she is ready to peak for this third up. She maps to land in the 1×1 and from there with the moderate tempo likely, she is very likely to be leading sometime in the straight and with her determination and ability, plus her races fitness edge over the Shark, she could just outsprint them to the line. RP $7, $100 and $1.75 Ff ( Four place divvies)

Dangers: 

1.Te Akau Shark is likely to get back and may be on the fence. With a moderate tempo likely, it does make it harder for him to get out and balanced up in time to get over these.

6.Avantage should settle 3 back outer and track Volpe Veloce into it and get every chance. Good tough win in the Telegraph and will be right in it.

7.Kiwi Ida  will likely get back last but with a moderate tempo likely, a place chance at best.

Race 9

The speed map shows Barry’s Bro and Angaria likely to share an even tempo.

Confidence: 3/5

1.Star Tsar  is a massive horse but has a motor underneath as he showed when coming from last to win going away here on debut. Matt cameron had to swap the whip over as he needed to be kept on line down the straight. The speed rating was the best all day.But once he got the idea that he was there to race, he did it easily. So you would think the extra 200m would suit. He needs a reasonable tempo up front to ensure he can power over them rather than sprint home. There looks to be that so he should get his chance to show that his very good breeding can come through again. RP $2.50, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

His main danger is them buttoning off and making it a sprint home.

4.Angaria  won well here last start and should be sharing or leading the pace. If he gets a soft time, he is the one Star Tsar has to run down.

11.Starring Role  was a bit stiff in a good 3yo fillies race at Trentham when held up. Drawn out so needs a good ride, but should be right in this.

6.Vladivostok  is a good horse improving all the time. With a cosy trip in behind and if he settles, he should also be a chance.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!