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Thursday preview below

Punters Club $60 returned for every $10 now paid out via bank accounts. Some payments may not go through till Monday unless you are with the ANZ.

Apologies- I deleted all the Punters Clubs bets by mistake- from memory, we backed Neeson, and On Demand for a win and plonked $6279 on Acutus to win and he did. Then about $1800 on Lowprofile in the last who missed but gave us a clean $60 for every $10 bet.

Update 11.12: No Head to heads recommended

Multi of the day Race 1 3.Minnalines into Race 4 3.Neeson $3.90  $68.20 for every $10

Update 7.59 a.m.

Good morning,

No Quality bets so far today ( There is one on Saturday here ) . To become a Quality bet I have to have 3/5 confidence or better and it has to be at a value price. e.g. Minnallines in the first looks well placed to lead all the way but there is little value in her at $1.90 but she is rated at $1.80. But Rock On Wood is $4.40 FF and I rate him a $2.20 chance so excellent value with him. To work out the bet on him, divide $4.40 by $2.20 to get 2 which is the value factor. I bet 2 units on horses rated between $2.02 and $3.50 so as we are getting very good value, those 2 units get multiplied by 2 to get 4 units which is the bet at $4.40 FF If Minnallines was available at $2.70 or more she would become one. Long term, that is how the Quality bets have made their money. I’ll update by noon with any other bets.

If you are in the Tauranga Punters Club syndicate, I’ll be posting updates on this page before the race. I’ll update the page with unit holders here by noon. Now updated.

Bet of the day Tauranga Race 1 3.Minnallines $1.90

Value bet of the day Tauranga race 7 7.Lowprofile $5.50 FF

Speed map Special Tauranga Race 4 3.Neeson $4.20 FF

Sneaky of the day Tauherenikau Race 6 10.Happy Tav $7.50 FF

Thursday early preview- There is a Quality bet at Te Rapa for Saturday ( Te Rapa Race 7 6.Rock On Wood 4 units a win at $4.40 FF ) here

Tauranga

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

3.Minnallines  looked very good leading last start and was just outfinished by top horse Harlech and ran a very good second. She  is a strong looking filly and from the inside she has the early speed to lead and if she can button off midrace, she looked too fast and strong for these. RP $1.80, $1.90 FF

Dangers:

4.Catwalk Girl if she can cross to second outer, looks the main danger. The rest don’t looked capable of beating the favourite.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

4.Robusto  looked good winning here two starts back and ran a solid second to Ocean Billy with a 1kg weight advantage. This time she gets an extra 2kgs advantage which is enough to turn around the 0.8L difference and Opie Bosson will be keen to turn the tables as well. RP $2.60, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

1.Ocean Billy  won well here last start but goes up to 60kgs. Tough horse though.

Race 3

The speed map shows four, maybe five runners looking to grab the lead which should ensure a fast early speed then at least even from there suiting a closer.

5.Tangodanzer two starts back settled 3 back inner and ran home strongly passing race rival Its So Easy comfortably over the 1200m and the winner Festivity was very impressive and won next up at Trentham. Then last start at Rotorua he settled off an even pace and could not get clear until too late then found the line strongly for third, not far from the winner. The 1400m looks ideal now and drawn to settle around 6th inner or outer behind what should be at least and even tempo. That should allow him to get out in time to come with a well timed finish and win this.

Dangers:

11.Bad ‘n’ Bouj won her trial very nicely with a nice action. Then on debut was caught 3 wide near the pace, led after turning in, and naturally tired over the last 150m. Drawn to get a better run and the 1400m will suit better, so is an upset chance.

2.Spring Tide  battling fourth on debut and was held up second up and ran on ok for a 3L 8th. Fitter now and well bred. Bred to win at least a maiden. Drawn to get a good run and is a chance.

1.Castle Black has had many chances, but has shown enough to say in a race with good tempo, as he gets back, he is a chance to break through. Blinkers go on which could also help.

Other thoughts:

6.Famous Belle fair third two starts back and the 2nd and 4th horses have since won. Last start was checked out of it midrace so forget that. Back to 1400m will suit as will the 3kgs coming off. Negative is she has has had 12 runs for a 2nd and 3rd, so more of a place chance.

7.Iridessa led all the way in her recent trial over 1000m beating Marcus Aurelius who ran a close second on debut on Sunday. Ran 3rd fresh up last campaign over 1600m coming from off the pace. Has had 9 runs for no placings though and is more of a staying type. Place chance fresh up

Race 4

The speed map shows Donna Anne Billy likely to lead with Neeson trailing and Bully Boy sliding over 2nd outer with a moderate tempo likely as Donna is suspect at a strongly run 1600m at this level.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Neeson has run some of his best races when trailing. The last when 3rd at Ellerslie when alongside Beauden over 1400m. The time before at Riccarton in an R72 race over 1600m he was too strong after trailing in  a very strong form race. Last start here he just didn’t see out the 2100m after getting a soft lead and was still in front 150m out. He maps to get that trail again here and with Donna being suspect at 1600m, he just needs to get out after turning in and be the one to beat. RP $3.60, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

1.Donna Anne Billy  was outfinished here last start by the trailer ( Salt Bay). She maps to get a soft lead which will make it easier to kick and hold on and with 4kgs off, is the one Neeson has to run down.

5.Pasabahce ran a bit of an unlucky 5th here two starts back then ran a very good 5th in a stronger field at Ellerslie. She goes well here but maps to get back off the moderate tempo and that will make it tough for her.

7.Jip Jip Rock  has been racing very well in weaker fields. Drawn out and likely to look to get in 5th or 6th outer. The moderate tempo makes it hard for her but she is a good mare with a light weight.

Other thoughts:

2.Bully Boy won well over 2000m last start and is likely to be 2nd outer. He has won over 1600m and with 3kgs off, should hold on for a place in a sprint home.

Race 5

The Speed map shows On Demand hunting out to lead with Excitonic likely to drop into the trail or get 2nd outer early then ease to 1×1 with Bahamas sliding over 2nd outer. A moderate tempo likely as they are likely to get into positions fairly quickly.

Confidence:  2/5

4.On Demand showed real fight to lead, get headed and come back and win on debut at Matamata over 1200m. The 3rd and 4th horses have won since. Then second up here she began awkwardly, settled, 6th, came wide on the turn and kept up a strong gallop to run third to Je Suis Tiger, who got things his own way up front. The step to 1400m looks ideal third up and she maps to lead with a clean beginning from the inside draw. From there, she will prove very hard to run down. RP $3.00, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

2.Excitonic  improved nicely to win last start and drawn to get a good run. Looks the main danger.

7.Selenelion  she won easily two starts back but got a soft lead and did impress quickening up to win going away. Worked hard early at Trentham and tired about 250m out in a stronger fillies field. Drawn 6 and unless she is hard ridden to try and lead, she is likely to snag as she can get caught 3 wide on the pace. early money has come for her. $4.40 to $3.80 FF

Race 6

The speed map shows good early speed from a few and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Acutus traveled like a winner last start after getting a good run and won strongly in a good speed rating. Up in class here but he maps to get the trail and from there, should get every chance to get out and drive at these hard in the last 100 metres and win. RP $3.00

Dangers:

1.Veine D’or  looked ready to fire fresh up in her trial when 4th outer and was held up in s straight going well. She goes well here

8.Willpower won well fresh up and close second  next up. If they go hard enough, should be in it.

Race 7

The speed map shows Lowprofile likely to lead and set a moderate to even pace.

7.Lowprofile did very well here last start when setting an even tempo and kept finding to win well and in a faster time than the Open handicap. Steps to 1600m but that time and his breeding suggests he will see it out strongly. RP $.00, $5.50 FF

Dangers: 

9.Checkers is a nice horse and gets in on a winning weight. Unlucky good 4th at Ellerslie last year. Nice 3rd to a good horse last start.

4.Nasha Riva  just got too far back and was held up at the wrong time here last start. Opie jumps on but she needs to bounce better or the same thing could happen again.

 

Tauherenikau

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

4.The Last Word has shown enough to win fresh up and with the advantage of the inside draw, this marsh trained runner will be ready to win. $2.50, $2.90FF

Dangers: 

3.Showbourne two strong placings but drawn out a little which often makes it tough here over 1000m.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

 2.Not Usual Litening could lead these and with a soft one likely, beat the favourite. RP $3.40

Dangers: 

1.Callsign Mav drops back in class a fair bit. It was a poor run at Trentham though so is he 100% after a tough campaign?

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

5.la Strata  looked ready to fire up fresh when she won her trial well with Lisa Allpress up. RP $5

Dangers: 

1.Dedoje very good second on debut but winner had a a few goes beforehand. If improved from that can win.

Race 4

Confidence; 2/5

1.Cage Phyta ran a good fifth on debut. Has to be improved from that and drawn to get all favours. RP $4.00

Dangers:

7.Detonate drawn to get all favours.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

4.Awesome Al  is racing like he well relish a middle distance now and drawn to get a good run. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Swing Note  has found the right race to go one better.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

10.Happy Tav has had some bad runs and done well. There looks to be some decent tempo in this which should allow him to settle back one off and with a track into it, could do it with the light weight. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Mehrtens  did well odd a tough run last start and just needs a good run.

7.La Landonne  if left alone could prove harder to catch with Lisa Allpress up.

Race 7

The speed map shows A few runners looking to lead or be on it so an even tempo likely. The inside can go off here when it is Dead or worse, so may suit wide closing runners by this time of day.

Confidence: 2/5

6.Sinarahma has been in great form showing a real will to win. Last stat just got a bit too far back  but she charged home late for a close 4th. This time, she has drawn out, which may be an asset by this time of day. She will look to back 3 wide with cover and with a track into it, she can get over these late and wide. RP $3.50, $3.90

Dangers:

5.Za Za Gabor  ran a strong third in the stronger Rich Hill Mile behind subsequent smart winner, Pris De Fe. She has been kept fresh for this and with a good run, should be right among this.

12.Vichy is improving with each start and although up in class,  is right at her peak for this.

3.Dark Princess has placed in stronger fields and with a good run, can be in this.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

1.Yeah Right  did well for 2nd last start in a good speed rating which was a nice improvement on his third here two back. Drawn to get all favours and right at his peak now. RP $3.80, $4.80 Ff

Dangers:

4.Jessie’s Rock fought on well wider last start and 1600m suits better now.

12.Sanibel  is racing well enough to include in quaddies.

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!