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Wednesday preview posted

Good morning,

The preview of Te Aroha is here with a nice chance in the first race.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

8.Paint Me Red has run two very good races. On debut here, he trailed, led 300m out, was headed but came back strongly for second with a gap to the rest, in a good speed rating. Then second up, in a strong maiden field, was in the 1×1 but they buttoned off up front and he got a bit keen, so had to ease out too early when a horse came round wider but he fought on well in a good speed rating and form race. The step to 1400m third up looks ideal. Drawn to get into a good position on a moderate tempo and get every chance with in-form Jason Waddell on top. RP $2.50, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

6.Well Chosen last start ran a very good second to a smart horse in Star Tsar. He is very fit now and it looks the main danger.

Just how good was that win by Two Illicit at Te Rapa on Saturday?  We can get a good comparison with the Group 1 Herbie Dyke over the same distance. Subscribers can see the opening and closing sectionals here of the four Group 1 races. It shows that Two Illicit ran the first 800m in 51.45 seconds, 3 lengths slower than Tiptronic got there, so not a big difference. But Two Illicit ran home her closing 800, 600, 400 and 200 all quicker than Tiptronic and was eased up 50 metres out whereas Tiptronic was ridden hard right to the line. I’ve been doing sectionals for a long time, and that is always a very good indication of the quality of a 3 year old. Therefore, you can’t blame them for wanting to go for the Derby, and is now a justified $2.60  favourite with a question over Dragon Leap after his temperature issue last week. There are some nice colts and geldings in there so it will only add to a very special race.

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Good luck,

Neil

Enquiries to Neil at [email protected] or text or phone 027 352 6402

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!