Home » Results » Saturday 15 February preview below

Saturday 15 February preview below

Update 11.30 a.m. Flemington Quaddie:

$50.40 for a 10% bet

R6   3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
R7    2, 7
R8    1, 5, 9
R9     1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12

Update 10.50 : Early $10k Bonus Quaddie suggested bet: Next update by noon.

$18 for 100%

R1   5
R2    2, 3, 9
R3    2, 9
R4    2, 3, 10

Update 8.35 a.m. The Starting gates Special is Starrybeel at $7.50 here and money back for 2nd and 3rd so is worth 2 more units as a Quality bet

Update: 7.50 a.m.

I’ve changed the bet of the day to God Of Thunder at Sydney. It is a tricky day at Ellerslie with only Starrybeel offering any value and he has been heavily backed in from $15 to $10. I’ll post an update by noon with any other bets including any Australian selections and quaddies.

Heads Up can be seen here where the GOAT and I preview Ellerslie and you get your chance to win a $20 multi

One Quality bet so far: Ellerslie race 7 12.Starrybeel 2 units eachway at $12 and $3.50 ( Four place divvies )

At Flemington, I’m just happy to watch Catalyst v Alligator Blood. The way the race will be run will suit Alligator Blood, as he has to lead from that inside gate as if he takes a sit, he is in danger of getting held up. So he gets the nod from me but there is no value in him at the $1.95.

Ray, who won the Heads Up $20 Multi, has God Of Thunder to win and Starrybeel to place ( First 4 placings) $3.10 to return $142.60

Bet of the day Sydney Race 3 1.God Of Thunder $2.30 FF 1st $2.50 

Value bet of the day Ellerslie Race 7 12. Starrybeel $12 and $3.50 and is a Quality bet 2 units each way – had his chance 

Speed Map Special Ellerslie Race 2 2.Virtuoso Lad $4.20 Ff 1st $3.80 

Sneaky of the day Starrybeel $12

The GOAT’S bet of the weekend is tonight with the Highlanders to win head to head at $2.55 Yes and got up in the last stride to win 23/22!

Sydney 

Race 3 3.25 p.m. 

Confidence: 3/5

1.God Of Thunder bolted in last campaign on a wet track with an ideal action for it. He’s fresh up here and trialed as good as you can get going into a 1000m fresh up. gets 3kgs off. Drawn 1 and should be trailling or 3 back inner, but he should get his chance to get out on this track and get over them. RP $1.90, $2.30 FF

Ellerslie

Race 1

The speed map shows Rainbow Dash leading early with Exuberant likely to try and cross her and the others looking to get handy one off or on the rail. A moderate tempo likely suiting on pace runners.

Confidence: 3/5

5.Madam Hass has been rating strongly in stronger 3yo races. She maps to get into the 1×1 and from there, with Jason Waddell riding in top form, she can get over these in the last 100 metres. RP $2.90, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Rainbow Dash  looked good winning her trial when second outer , leading 150m out and won well. But she may still be vulnerable late fresh up and may get crossed and end up in the trail.

Race 2

The speed map shows Master Park trying to cross and lead but there are a few inside that will kick up ensuring a fast early tempo and an even one at least once they settle.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Virtuoso Lad maps to settle 3 back inner and from there with the way he fought very hard against the smart Phantom Witness last start, he does look the one to beat. RP $4, $4.20 FF

Dangers: 

3.Master Park rates clearly on top here but that wide draw is a real negative. If he can cross over to 2nd outer or lead without burning too much, he will be hard to run down.

9.Three Sixty  charged home for 2nd to Acutus last start who won easily next up. If they go hard, could swamp them.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

9.Kaipaki Road ran home well late behind two Illicit last start. Nice filly and nicely placed here. RP $3.00

Dangers:

2.The Buzz drops in class after some nice runs and drawn to land about 3 back inner which should be close enough to win. Rates 3 lengths clear after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

2.Iron Eagle  has been rating the best of these with a strong close third at Trentham in a stronger R82 field. Has won here over 1600m and should land in the lead or be close to it. With a moderate tempo likely, he should get his chance to kick on these and hold on. RP $4.00, $4.40 FF

Dangers:

3.Shezathinka  looks the obvious danger from the good draw with Opie up. Was a bit stiff last start.

 

Race 5

The speed map shows Sheezallmine likely to lead and not get taken on. Moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Sheezallmine  looked ready to get back to her best form when leading and being run down by top horse Bostonian in her recent trial. She has drawn to lead and with 3kgs off, can lead all the way. RP $3.20, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

6.Short Fuse  has been racing very well with fast closing sectionals. With a good run, is the one Sheezallmine needs to hold out.

Race 6

The speed map shows James Barrie and Enjoy The Show leading with a moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the race.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Sherwood Forest has always looked like a middle distance would be his forte and he showed that last start winning at Te Teko over 2200m in good time, beating the Dunstan Feeds winner, Paisley Park. That recent strong form and the fact that he will near th the pace which doesn’t look to be strong, means he may just get the jump on Dragon Leap on the turn and with his extra race fitness, hold on. RP $3.60, $4 FF

Dangers:

2.Dragon Leap hasn’t started for 45 days and the trainers warned that he would need the run before he was scratched with a high temperature on the morning of the races. He has come through that well, but that is another week of losing race fitness. he maps to be 3 back or 4 back inner and he will be ridden quietly to get him to settle for the Derby. He may over race being fresh and may have trouble getting out in time to get over the leaders with a moderate tempo likely, so the $2 is too short.

4.Tibetan ran a game second to Scorpz here over 2100m and has run two very good races since over 1500 and 1600m. Just needs a good trip to be right in this.

3.Scorpz is a tough horse suited to a middle distance. negative is the draw as he will have to do extra work at some stage of the race giving the edge to the above three.

Race 7

The speed map shows Jesseigee and Final Suggestion going forward and a moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 

12.Starrybeel won the Dunstan Feeds final last year with 59kgs sprinting away over the last 200 metres beating The Good Fight and Fiscal Fantsay who have franked that form since. Last start with 59.5kgs, after two nice runs, stepped back up to a middle distance and got back in the small field in a slowly run race, but drove through hard late like he does to win, with a closing 600m of 34.84 and 200m of 11.58 which bettered most sprinters on the same day. So he comes into this on 53kgs, which he will notice after carrying around 5kgs or more in most of his runs. Drawn to land about 7th inner or outer  with the moderate tempo forecast, and with a good track into it, he is going to be hard to keep out with a good weight advantage over his main rivals. Trainer Stephen Marsh said he could not be happier with the way he is going in his trackwork and is ready for a big race. Stephen Marsh said, “I thought his work this morning was awesome. He’s going super and I think he is a real lightweight chance in the Cup.”( Tuesday morning) RP $6, $12 and $3.50 FF ( Four place divvies) 2 units each way for the Quality bet

Dangers:

3.Platinum Invador won the City Of Auckland Cup here with 56kgs and  was kept up to the mark last start running on late on a tighter track. Back here,he looks right in it but is giving good weight to some nice horses.

4.Concert Hall  looked very good in her trial at Tauranga and she may be ridden out early to get handier which could be a winning move if she can slot in with that good run to the first bend.

13.Intrigue would have won if the rider had held on to the whip. Drawn out and likely to get back and needs give in the track to show her best so keep an ear out for comments from the riders.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

12.Stilton needed her last run when getting back and closing off strongly for fifth. Her 2nd two starts back was in a strong field with good form out of it.Drawn to get a good run and be a chance from there. RP $8, $14 FF

Dangers:

3.River Run  had no luck last start. Drawn to get a good run and is very fit.

2.Iago is a nice horse and just needs a good run to be in it.

11.lavaglo will appreciate the extra ground now and could do it with a good run.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Avatar
Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!