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Sunday preview below

Update:

Race 3 Head to Head All The Rage $1.70 to beat Shake That Tush who just battled for 4th last start after getting all favours in a slowish speed rating. Drawn out with All The rage who is proven to be at least up to winning any maiden.

Multi of the day with the head to head above and Our Greg $2 to win race 1 at the dogs to return $34 for every $10 Yes 

Good morning,

No Quality bets. Some small but nice fields for Gisborne today. I’ll post an update by noon. The first five races are previewed from the Manukau dogs as well.

Gisborne bet of the day Race 7 1.More Wonder $2.20 FF 1st $2.40 FF

Value bet of the day Race 4 8.Chosen Peak $4.80 FF 1st $5 

Big value bet Race 1 1.Blizzing Away $15 FF  2nd $3.80 

 

Gisborne

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

1.Blizzing Away  went too fast up front last start and tired.  Good 2nd three starts back after leading and beaten by the smart Meghan. Should get a softer lead here and be much harder to run down. RP $8, $15 FF

Dangers:

6.Rosa Fiore  has done enough to say she can win this with Lisa Allpress up giving her every chance.

2.Eagle Fifty  looks the obvious danger. He is slow away though and does race greenly so $2.10 from this stable is hard to take. Maybe on Thursday.

3.Remember O’Reilly has had tough runs and done ok. More ground suits.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Dam Reliable had her first go over ground last start and I liked the way she found the line in a handy R65 field. Fitter for that and drawn to get every chance. RP $3.00

Dangers:

3.You’re Welcome  looks the one to run down.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

4.All The Rage  has rated strongly ( FR 97, 98, and 99 ) in better fields  and was a close 4th to two Illicit at Ellerslie. Rogie will be keen to get a win with him. Drawn wide but does have tactical speed so if Ashvin can bounce him and get cover, even 3 wide, he is going to be hard to keep out. Rates 3 lengths clear of these after weight adjustments. RP $4, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Motley Crue  ran some strong races last campaign. Should be stronger this time and has the speed to cross and lead and be the one Rage has to nail.

6.Enduring Love  looks like she can trail Motley and have the last go at him. had a few goes though.

 

Race 4

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and an even tempo likely.

8.Chosen Peak fresh up at Trentham on a Dead 4 track, did very well when drawing wide, snagging back and unwound strongly late for third running her last 600 in 33.37 in a good speed rating. She was an unlucky second, second up last campaign, and drawn to settle about 7th or 8th near the fence. But there looks to be good speed here which will allow her to get over these late. She has a wet track action so the Dead 5 track will be ideal. RP $3.50, $4.60 FF

Dangers:

5.Ristretto  tends to find an excuse to get beaten as she can be a bit slow away at times. Favoutite again but has gone out < $4.50, $3 and $2 at her last three starts and got beaten.

1.Ottavio  has caused one of the owners to go bald through tearing his hair out. He does just enough to keep you interested. If he begins as quick as his owner gets to the 19th, he could lead them a merry chase.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

5.Victory Glory  ran a top third on debut with a good closing sectional and looked like he needed more ground after his last start third. So 1400m from a good draw looks ideal. RP $2.60, $3 FF

Dangers:

8.Bellesgirl  ran on well on debut for second to the well backed favourite, Rum, who led all of the way- 1400m will suit as she is a big filly and Lisa Knows her better now.

7.Aromatic  good second on debut over 1200m. Wouldn’t want to get too far back against the above two though. 1400m suits.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5 After going through all of these, it really is a field job for the quaddie.

7.Swiss Az  has been rating well but drawn wide. But if they go hard, she could get a good run and win. RP $6

5.Unlaced  has looked good at all of her three runs. Although her last run she got a soft sit 2nd outer, kicked and was flat out holding on in a slow speed rating. Up in class and drawn well, but $2.10 is too short even with Lisa on board.

3.Plushenko  if in the right mood could do it as he can unleash when he wants to.

9.Surrey fresh up with 2kgs off, could upset them.

6.Fantasy Flight  won in a good speed rating last start but drops back in distance.

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

1.More Wonder was beaten by the smart Tavi Mac fresh up and looked good. Then at Te Rapa last start ran a very good fifth finding the line well last behind Te Akau Shark. He looked very, very fit for that and drops to a much easier R82. Drawn to get a good run and despite the weight, third up, against these, he should win and win well. Rates 3 lengths clear after weight adjustments. RP $1.80, $2.10 FF

 

Race 8 

Confidence: 2/5 with four winning chances

10.Sweet Fields  looked good running on strongly last start to the smart Angaria who won well next start as well. Drawn to land closer and has a nice action so fourth up and fitter, she can beat these. RP $4, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

6.Vroom  has run four good races this campaign and just needs a good run to be a winning chance.

3.Rocking Along good fourth second up and drawn to get all favours with Lisa Allpress up.

2.Piping Hot freshened up after an unlucky 3rd last start. Drawn well.

Manukau Dogs

The two best bets here are Race 1 2.Our Greg $2.10  and race 2 6.Botany Sandy $3.80 FF

Race 1 1.21 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5 1st $2

2.Our Greg rated a career best 54 when 2nd at Cambridge on Thursday after beginning fast and fought hard from 2nd outer. The 1 dog looks to rail and the 3 dog runs true, so he does look well placed to drive through and get handy early and be the one to beat. RP $2.00, $2.10 FF

Race 2  1.39 p.m. $2.5k Bonus quaddie

Confidence: 3/5 4th after missing jump 

6.Botany Sandy  on debut drew box 2 and jumped well to share the lead with the smart Night Ace and fought strongly for second in an adjusted time of 18.83, which would have won the two C1 races and the Cc3 race the same day. The 5 dog looks to get down and the 7 dog is slower away, so she just needs a to jump like she did on debut, and having the best time and closing sectional ( 14.07) of any of these, she just needs a clean start to beat these. RP $2.80, $3.80 Ff

Dangers:

1.Get Me Home  can begin ok but wants to run out on the first bend which is always a negative from box 1.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

3.Jinja jay has the best 3 of the 4 best ratings here over this distance in the last 90 days. Would improve with that last runlast Sunday when 2nd in his best career rating.  He looked to stretch out really well late over that 375m so may have had an issue before then and is set to run a another career best. Just needs a little luck early to get handy- he can jump ok. RP $2.50, $2.70 FF

Danger:

2.Crackling Gal should get a good run and be the main danger. Can run time.

Race 4

Tough race : In order: 1-7-2-6-9

Race 5 

One of the three below should take this out.

2.My Snuggles  maps to lead at the first bend and if she does , will be hard to beat.

6.Smash Out  has a bad habit of running second. He does have the two best closing sectionals here so just needs to jump well and break through.

5.Just Nia downgrades and has good closing sectionals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!