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Thursday preview below

11 a.m. No further bets

Wairoa 

Update 8.10 a.m. Thursday.

No Quality bets so far. An update will be posted by noon.

Some tricky fields with no Quality bets so far. The best two eachway bets are Race 2 3.Baby Shark $5.50 FF  and race 4 12. Vincenza $5.50. I’ll post an update by 8.45 Thursday morning.

Bet of the day Race 4 12.Vicenza $5.50 FF 1st $4.40 

Value bet of the Day Race 8 9.Prince Turbo $5 FF

Early quaddie suggested bet:

$13.50 for 10%

R1    1, 3, 4
R2    2, 3, 5
R3    2, 4, 5, 8, 9
R4    3, 4, 12

Suggested late quaddie $32 for 10%

R5  1, 2, 3, 8
R6   1, 2, 3, 4
R7    1, 2, 4, 5, 6
R8     1, 4, 7, 9

 

Race 1

A very even race best watched. The bookies have 6 of the 7 runners between $3.90 and $6.50. Maybe  3.Desert Magic  could get a soft lead and be hard to run down. His last run was very good 6th 3w in the open at New Plymouth and ran the third fastest last 600m – could get a soft 1400m now. 1 and 4 also for the quaddie.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5 where Motley Crue can get beaten.

2.Motley Crue  will be a popular punt with many. Fresh up he was run down late with a space to the rest. The time was below average though so he could be vulnerable late from a runner that gets a cosy run in behind as was the case on Sunday. 3.Baby Shark  has been costing himself with slow starts. On debut he lost about 7 lengths at the start but did well to get up for fifth. This full brother to Te Akau Shark just needs to get away on terms or close to it to be a real threat. The barrier blindfold goes on to help. 1400m would be better but he is an impressive looking 3yo and will make it interesting. RP $4, $5.50 FF The stable mate, 5.Irish Heart has firmed from $4.60 to $3.80 which is a significant move and should get that ideal run behind Motley.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

The main thing about this race is that there is plenty of early speed and the jump will likely determine where they land. But it should be a dent tempo maybe setting up for a closer. 9.On Show ran on ok for second at Hastings two back but is a bit weak. So maybe 8.Enduring Love after breaking through well on Sunday may be forced to snag from the wide draw and if they go hard, which is likely, she could swamp them late. 4.Rose Bowl  found 1400m too far second up. back to 1200m with 2kgs off helps. 2.Deshi won in a good speed rating last start. Gets 4kgs off and if he did lead again, will be hard to beat.Tricky race.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

12.Vicenza  is bred to win a few races and has a very nice galloping action. On debut 0ver 1200m she drew out and eased to 8th outer and once balanced up, ran home strongly in the second fastest last 600m of the race for fourth behind two subsequent winners, Phantom Witness and Midnight Magic who got better runs in front of her with the temp favouring them. Then second up over 1400m at Matamata, she jumped well then eased to be in behind the leaders, but the leader backed them off and they went round and she got shuffled back on the inner. She was too far off them turning in but found the line nicely again for fifth in a better time than the R72 race and she ran the fastest last 600m of the race. So third up from the Te Akau stable, she will be fitter and has drawn the inside which should allow her to trail or be 3 back inner at worst. A moderate tempo is likely so she looks nicely placed to break through. RP $4, $5.50 FF

For Quaddies 3.Dedoje is likely to be ridden off the pace from that wide draw which will suit. 4.All The Rage  had no chance off a wide run on Sunday. Has rated strongly in better fields. 1400m suits.

Race 5 

Confidence: 2/5

8.La Landonne did very well last start 3 wide in the open and kept coming right to the line. She drew out and was a bit slow away then and Lisa tried to get in one off but couldn’t. She can begin better and I’m sure Lisa will be looking to bounce her out better this time and try and get 2nd outer or even lead if it is there. From there, based on that last effort, she does look the one. RP $4, $4.80 FF

For quaddies: include 1-2-3

Race 6

Another tricky race with any one of 1-2-3 or 4 very likely to win it.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

2.Son Of Anna Kay  did very well two back when working wide for most of the race and just went down in a stronger maiden field. Bit keen last start and could be allowed to stride forward and lead these a merry chase and be hard to run down. RP $3.50, $4 FF

For quaddies include: 1-4-5-6

Race 8

An open race so go wide in the quaddie.

9.Prince Turbo  is capable of winning this if he gets the right run. With Samantha Collett up from the good draw, he should get that. RP $5, $6 FF

For quaddies include: 1-4-7

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!