Saturday 22 February preview below

 

Update: 4.10 p.m. Suggested late quaddies: Rosehill- Caulfield to follow soon

Caulfield late quaddie

$27 for 20%

R6   8

R7   2, 6, 8, 11, 12

R8   3, 15, 16

R9    1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Rosehill

$56 for 10%

R6   1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11

R7    1, 2, 4, 5

R8    2, 8

R9     3, 4, 5, 9, 10, 12, 13

 

Update: No further bets- check back by 5 p.m. for any Ozzie quaddies

Steve L, who won the $20 multi bet form last week, will have his bet posted around noon. Update: Steve’s multi is $20 on Mr Wong and Super Seth, both at $2.70 to return $145.80

Update 7.50 a.m. Saturday

There is rain forecast for Matamata and it can be seen on its way here. That will suit Inscription, the only Quality bet there.  I’ll post an update by noon with any other bets.

Bet of the day Rosehill Race 2 1.Mr Wong $2.70 FF 4th

Value bet of the day Matamata Race 8 9.Inscription $5.50 FF 5th

Speed map special Caulfield Race 6 8.Super Seth $2.60 FF  2nd 

Sneaky of the day Matamata Race 7 7.Wicket Maiden $9 FF

Heads Up can be seen here where the GOAT and I preview the big one at Otaki, and you get your chance to win a $20 mutli win bet, plus more

The GOATS best bet is tonight with the Crusaders -16.5 at $1.90 starting at 7.05 tonight. Yes won by 20 points

Saturday

Update noon Friday: Three quality bets just below.

Next update 6 p.m.

Matamata

Race  8 4.30 p.m.

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and it should be run at an even tempo or better.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 4 units at $6 FF

9.Inscription last campaign often ran the fastest last 200m of the meeting and she was racing over 1600m or more! This campaign, she has been racing strongly again and last start gave every sign that she needs 2000m now. With 600m to go she struck that flat patch again and was scrubbed along, then once balanced up, she ran home strongly in 34.99, the fastest last 600m of the race over the 1600m and was the fastest speed rated race all day. She stretched out like she would relish 2000m now and trainer, Ross McCarroll, has always felt she would excel over a middle distance. She maps to get back off the decent tempo, and with the 53kgs, a good advantage over the first two favourites, she looks very well placed to win this. Trainer Ross McCarroll  told us, “She has improved off that last run and is ready for 2000m now. I’d like to see a bit of rain and there are showers forecast for tomorrow. Ryan will suit her as she hits that flat spot about 600m out and he is a strong rider.” RP $3.00, $6 FF  (4 units at $6 FF )

Caulfield

Race 6 5.30 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 4.6 units at $2.60 FF

8.Super Seth beat Alligator Blood last campaign and we know who he beat last Saturday, Catalyst. He showed real strength to win fresh up and has improved off that. Drawn to land close enough in what looks to be a moderately run race and with a nice pull in the weights, he will be very hard to beat. RP $1.70, $2.60 ( 4.6 units)

 

Rosehill

Race 2 3.30 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 4.5 units at $3.00 FF

1.Mr Wong won impressively fresh up over 1100m where he bounced well, sat 3rd outer and raced away. His actions says he will relish a Slow to heavy track and he has won on a similar surface. He has trialled since and again looked very impressive. Last campaign, he got his head to the side and wasn’t sure what to do but based on his last win and trial run, he definitely knows what he’s there for now. From the inside draw, with good speed outside him, he should land in the trail or 3 back inner at worst and the gaps should come for him to allow Hughy to get him out and home. RP $2.00, $3.00 FF ( 4.5 units at $3.00 FF )

The second favourite, Southern Appeal needs another scratching to get into the field.

Otaki

Race 7

The speed map shows The Mitigator likely to lead out and a few looking to get handy. A Moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Prise De Fer  had to be good to win last start when he was behind midfield and they came home in the quickest last 600m all day off the front, and he won easing down. The 1600m suits ideally and a Dead 6 or better will suit. RP $3.40, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Shadows Cast needs a Dead 5 or better and should get the right run to test the favourite.

2.The Mitigator  needs a Dead 4 or better to be backed with confidence. It took Te Akau Shark to beat him last start.

9.Avantage  should get every chance and handles a Dead to Slow track well. 1600m the query but will be fit enough for it.

Matamata

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

2.Aqueduct  won well leading all the way here last start. Gets 4kgs off again and could easily do the same thing again. RP $4.50, $5.50 Ff

Dangers:

5.Kabu won well here two back and outclassed last start. Back here looks easier.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Veecee top run in a harder field last start. Looks the obvious one. RP $3.40, $3.80 Ff

Dangers:

10.Jip Jip Rock racing well and gets down to a winning weight.

1.Aim Smart  drawn to get a winning run but is giving decent weight to two nice horses.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

10.Midnight Magic improved nicely to win second up. Fitter for this and just needs a good ride from the wide barrier. 3kgs off will help. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Packing Rockstart  looked good winning his debut and looks the obvious danger.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

1.Cool Aza Beel  won the KM easily in the end and from the inside should get every chance to do a job on these. RP $1.40, $1.40 FF

Dangers:

3.Need I Say More  looked good leading all the way here and is the one the favourite has to track and run down.

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

4.Levante  has looked very good winning her three races and will be hard again although $1.45 Ff is too short, especially with the rain forecast. 3.Jewel Of Patch  is right on top of his game and it would not surprise to see him sit just behind a moderate tempo, then put a break on them 200m out and see if Levante is good enough to run him down. He is the best value in the race and any rain . RP $4.50, $6.50 Ff

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

2.Yearn is racing right at the top of her game and 1400m is ideal for her. If she gets a decent run from the wider draw, she can beat Supera, especially with the rain forecast now. RP $4. $4.20 FF

Confidence:

1.Supera looked good in her trial and with the right run will win.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5 I’ve swapped to Wicket Maiden on top here after the rain is very likely to cause a downgrade.

7.Wicket Maiden with the rain forecast, really comes into this now. She was a very impressive winner at Trentham and her dam won on heavy ground and her action says she will handle a Dead to slow track better than most here. The wide draw may be an advantage by this time of day as well. RP $6, $9 FF

Dangers:

8.Dragon Queen ran a very good fifth in the karaka Million. She worked hard to elad early then trail. She was blocked in the straight and once out came home nicely for fifth. This is easier and she has drawn the inside. Should get every chance. RP $5.00, $7.50 Ff

1.Bonita Aurelia  won very well on debut from the Baker/Forsman stable and looked to have improvement in her. Drawn to get a good run. RP $3.80, $3.00 Ff is too short and she may drift.

11.Escudo  beat Vernazza home here last start and is a nice galloper.

 

 

Race  8

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and it should be run at an even tempo or better.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet

9.Inscription last campaign often ran the fastest last 200m of the meeting and she was racing over 1600m or more! This campaign, she has been racing strongly again and last start gave every sign that she needs 2000m now. With 600m to go she struck that flat patch again and was scrubbed along, then once balanced up, she ran home strongly in 34.99, the fastest last 600m of the race over the 1600m and was the fastest speed rated race all day. She stretched out like she would relish 2000m now and trainer, Ross McCarroll, has always felt she would excel over a middle distance. She maps to get back off the decent tempo, and with the 53kgs, a good advantage over the first two favourites, she looks very well placed to win this. Trainer Ross McCarroll  told us, “She has improved off that last run and is ready for 2000m now. I’d like to see a bit of rain and there are showers forecast for tomorrow. Ryan will suit her as she hits that flat spot about 600m out and he is a strong rider.” RP $3.00, $6 FF  (4 units at $6 FF )

Dangers:

1.Scott Base does look the main danger after his two good runs lately.

2.Te Akau Caliburn  will improve off that last run and more ground suits.

4.Justamaiz  if he can lead and ping along on his own terms, could be hard to run down.

Race 9

Confidence; 2/5

5.Le Sablier is very fit now and ready for 2000m. Drawn to get every chance. RP $3.20

Dangers:

7.Patsys Lass was a dominant winner here last start. Up in class but right at her peak.

1.Leaderboard  is a nice strong galloper suited to a hard run 2000m.

9.Stilton with the light weight and good run likely, could upset.

Otaki

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

2.Tavattack won like a good horse here on debut and drawn to get a good run. RP $3.50, $3.90 FF

Dangers:

5.Gold Bracelet looks the obvious danger from the draw.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

6.Heart Of Stone should be able to land outside Fibonacci here and with the 4kg weight advantage, she can beat him. RP $3.00

Dangers:

2.Fibonacci should be able to lead here and if mot taken on, is the one Heart Of Stone has to knock off.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

1.Smart Remark  has shown enough to say he can win at least a maiden. Drawn well and gets 2kgs off.

Dangers:

4.Americo from the inside draw should get every chance.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

1.Sword Of Fire  needs 1400m and gets it. Very nice galloper and just needs to avoid bad luck and be home. RP $1.70, $1.80 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Blue On Black looked a definite improver from his last start. Drawn to get a good run and the one to beat. RP $2.60, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

8.Lord Bouzeron  top 2nd last start on a good tempo. Weighted to win.

7.Aratoka will certainly appreciate any rain and could upset.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

5.Skyphyta looks ready to win and also gets in on a light weight.

Dangers:

 

Race 7

The speed map shows The Mitigator likely to lead out and a few looking to get handy. A Moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Prise De Fer  had to be good to win last start when he was behind midfield and they came home in the quickest last 600m all day off the front, and he won easing down. The 1600m suits ideally and a Dead 6 or better will suit. RP $3.40, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

11.Rondinella ran a very good third at Ellerslie fresh up and has placed in Group 2 and 3 company in Melbourne and ran 3rd in Group 1 company at Rosehill in the Tancred on a heavy track, so a Dead to slow track will be ok.

1.Shadows Cast needs a Dead 5 or better and should get the right run to test the favourite.

9.Avantage  should get every chance and handles a Dead to Slow track well. 1600m the query but will be fit enough for it.

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

1.Hoist drops in class and drawn to get every chance. Any rain will only enhance his chances. RP $4,

Dangers:

6.Enchanting Pearl made some subscribers a lot of money when she won well here last start in a good speed rating. Looks the main danger.