Update 11.47 a.m.
Flemington suggested quaddie for $33 for 10%
R6 1, 4, 5, 6, 11
R7 1, 3, 5
R8 2, 7
R9 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14 Yes $148.30 returned
Update 11.30 a.m.
The two head to head bets below with Race 8 5.Rock On Wood to place in the First 4 at $1.70
RP $2.40, Returns $4.91 Value Staking plan says 4.1 units
Liam’s $20 multi from Heads Up is $20 of the above multi to return $98.20
Head to Heads
Manchu $1.75 yes to beat Pinched. Pinched has not finished it off in good sectionals off moderate tempos in weaker fields. She has risen quickly in grade and strikes a good field here. Manchu has drawn nicely and should get every chance, whereas Pinched has drawn wide and will have to work early and be vulnerable in the last 100 metres by a strong finishing Manchu. Rider Leith Innes made her his best chance on the card today.
Cool Aza Beel $1.70 yes to beat Play That Song Cool Aza Beel beat Play That Song decisively here last time on a dry track. And that is the key as Play That song has an action that is best suited to a Dead 6 to Slow track. Drawn better and should beat him again.
Update 8.35 a.m. Riding The Wave Yes is the Starting Gates special till 9.30 a.m. at $2.60 and refund for 2nd or 3rd here
Update Saturday 7.50 a.m.
We have good weather at both NZ venues and Dead 4 tracks. Riding The Waves and Rock On Wood are the two Quality bets which have made excellent profits since May last year. They are based on races that I rate 3/5 or better in confidence and can get good value in. The Value Staking Plan is then used to work out the bet. The Value Staking plan takes into account how much value you are getting then puts more on for better value and less for not so great value.
I’ll post an update by noon with any other bets.
Bet of the Day Ellerslie Race 7 8.Riding The Wave $4.40 Ff Friday with an 11% deduction 1st $3.40
Value bet of the day Race 8 5.Rock On Wood $4.80 FF
Speed Map Special Ellerslie 6 1.Cool Aza Beel $2.00 FF 1st $1.80
Sneaky of the day Ellerslie Race 5 8.Three Sixty $7.50 FF 2nd ( Had to change to Randwick race 9 3.Nettoyer $8 ( Loves a wet track and trialed up very well )
Update 4.10 p.m. No further Quality bets Next update by 8 a.m. Saturday morning.
Two quality bets so far here: next update by 5 p.m.
Race 7 8.Riding The Wave $4.50 ( 3 units at $4.40 Ff ) 12 units returned
Race 8 5.Rock On Wood ( 4.4 units at $4.80 FF ) Missed
The GOAT’s best two sports bets are the Chiefs to win H2H $1.34 Yes tonight at 9.15 and the Hurricanes to win H2H at $1.49 to return approx $2 in a multi
The speed map shows no obvious pacemaker. media Sensation gets her chance to lead if she wants and she been rating strongly enough to lead and hold these out.
5.Yatima bolted in fresh up over 1600m at Pukekohe last September. She can run good closing sectionals so is suited to a sit sprint. From the inside draw she could be able hunt out and get the trail and in a bit of a sit sprint race, she will be in the right spot to take full advantage of that. RP $6, $10 Ff
1.Media Sensation ran on well late in ground she wasn’t happy in last start. She can lead here but I’m not sure the trainer wants her to race like that, so the $2.10 is just too short. RP $3.00
2.Livin’ On A Prayer has been racing in Group races and rating well enough to be the main danger. The blinkers going on help also.
3.Lady Shabeel has the chance to hunt out and lead as she did here for her last win over 1600m.
4.Savvy Yong Blonk needs the run and in a sit sprint won’t be suited.
The speed map shows Avoca Willow and Ohthoserussians sharing a moderate tempo.
1.The Buzz 1st $3.60 two starts back here settled 3 back inner and after getting out too late, finished hard for fourth over 1600m. Then last week here, he landed handy then gradually got the shuffle up until he was last on the turn. Once balanced up, he came home strongly in good sectionals and a fast speed rating for this grade rating FR 102 which is top class for this grade. He definitely needs a middle distance now and from his good draw, should be able to relax in the first 6 on a moderate tempo and get out and be too strong for these. RP $3.20, $3.70 FF
9.Lady Azamour is in career best form. Likely to get back off the moderate tempo which is a negative, but if they make midrace moves, which is always likely, that will suit her.
5.Mighty Aslan has been racing well in nice fields. If he can jump cleanly and get on the pace, he will prove hard to run down. RP $5
7.Petrabella good second last start but hasn’t raced for a few weeks, so is likely to be one short.
The speed map shows plenty of early speed with at least 5 runners looking to be leading or close to it. That should ensure an even tempo at least and may suit a closer.
8.Manchu was late scratched here last week after the rider fell off just after the start because the starter let them go and he didn’t have his feet in the irons. Noticebly, she was backed in from $7 to $4.50 in the last two minutes of betting. She did look a bit fresh so that trip would have done her no harm. Her form against some good 3yo’s says she has the ability to win this being stronger now. The 1400m looks ideal and she maps to land in a winning spot just behind the leaders and be hard to beat from there. RP $4, $4.80 FF
4.Packing Rockstar 1st bolted in last Saturday here over the same distance of 1400m. But he could not have got the race run to suit better. He sat behind the leaders and they averaged 12.41 seconds to the 800m, the 6th slowest all day, then he came home in the fastest and second fastest closing sectionals off the front all day. So he got all favours in a weaker field. He is an impressive looking strong galloper and has the breeding to back it up. This time he maps to settle around 6th or 7th behind a stronger tempo against better horses, so the $3.00 is too short.
The speed map shows Boogie easy likely to lead with two or three others sliding over to get handy and a moderate to even tempo likely.
6.Le Sablier 2nd has rated strongly in both of her last two runs. She was a sitting duck two starts back and just went down, then just about caught the smart Nasha Riva last start after easing back from a wide draw. She just needs to land in the first half of the field to be able to use her powerful sprint. Rider Sam Weatherley said, “She is my best ride of the day. She has worked second to none during the week. I’ll settle midfield or no worse and with her turn of foot, she will be hard to beat. “RP $4.00, $3.60 FF
1.Ohceedee drops in class and is ready to win again. Needs a perfect ride though.
5.Civilised drawn to get every chance after a close third here in the same grade.
14.William Tell maps to get all favours and could sneak into it.
The speed map shows at least 6 runners wanting to lead or be on it so a fast tempo early and at least an even one suiting a closer.
8.Three Sixty 2nd $2.30 finished hard here last start for third after getting well back. Before that he ran second to Acutus who won well next up. She will get back again but with the strong tempo likely, she just needs to pick the right path to get over these late. RP $5, $7.50 FF
3.Oh He Can needed that first up run. Nice horse drawn to get a good run.
4.Sword Of Fire wasn’t happy on the ground last start but still ran a solid second. Third up and fitter and tempo will suit.
2.Master Park is very fit now and drawn to get a good run.
The speed map shows no obvious leader as horses that led last start are likely to be ridden with cover to finish off better, so a moderate tempo likely wit maybe Snapper leading.
1.Cool Aza Beel 1st $1.80 has a galloping action better suited to a dry track and that was one the reason he was beaten last start. In the KM he was able to flatten out on the better track to beat home Play That Song, who has an action best suited to a Dead to slow track. With the Dead 4 to Good 3 track on Saturday, He should be able to bounce back to winning form. The only niggle is that he has had some tough runs and he has been up since September last year. Drawn to get a winning trail. RP $2.40, $2.10 FF
3.Play That Song found Cool Aza Beel too good here last start. Drawn to get the last crack at him and looks the quinella again.
4.Vernazza won here two back but in a slow speed rating. Got all favours in the right spot with cover last start. back on a dry track from a good draw helps but hard to see beating the above two.
5.Kelly Renee ran home strongly to Vernazza last start from a wide draw. Better drawn this time and a better track should help.
The speed map shows six runners looking to lead or be on it which will ensure a fast first 400m at least and at least an even tempo. Trainer of Born Dragon said instructions will be, “Go as fast as you can for as far as you can. ” So a good tempo likely setting up for a closer.
8.Riding The Wave 1st $3.40 two starts back at Trentham was ridden cold and they ran the first 600m in 34.49 and he ran his in 35.37, which set it up for him to power over them, which is exactly what he did and in 32.83 in a race time of 1.08.20. Compare that to last Saturday here, when he drew 8 and snagged back for cover which he got but they buttoned off up front and ran the to the 600m in a slowish 36.18 and his first 600m was 37.27. So he had little chance of winning but almost did! He had to get out and wide in the open 600m out and kept finding to close hard late running his last 600m in 33.17. This time he has drawn 3 and maps to land 3 or 4 back inner behind is sure to be a lot faster tempo. So that is going to allow him to get over them if he can get the gaps at the right time, which usually does happen when they go fast early. He drops to a winning weigh although up in class. Trainer Nigel Tiley is very pleased with this big powerful 4yo’s progress since last week and he does look well placed to win again. His top trainer Nigel Tiley also said before last week’s race that he felt he would become one of our better open class sprinters. RP $2.90, $4.50 FF ( 3 units at $4.40 FF )
13.Virtuoso Lad ran home strongly for third behind Riding The Wave here last week. Suited to a decent tempo here and has been backed in early from $17 to $12.
2.Born Dragon could lead with a clean jump and with the freshen up, will be the one to run down.
The speed map shows Justamaiz, Tiptronic, Gino Severino all looking to get on the pace and a few wanting to get in behind those like Avantage from the inside draw. Avantage could trail early then end up 3 back inner. Rock On Wood maps nicely to land around 6th outer. Supera is very likely to snag to last. An even tempo likely with Justamaiz wanting to get to the front to have any chance of placing in this field. Every horse should get its chance.
5.Rock On Wood has just not had the luck in running in his last two starts in Group 1s. With a better run he would have won both. He has drawn to land off the fence here and with the even tempo very likely with Justamaiz in here, he is going to get his chance to show just how good he is. I really do feel he is the best horse in this race and can win more Group races. It is his first time right handed but he relaxes well and seems a professional racehorse now and I can’t see that being an issue. He races best with his races spaced and this could just be his day. RP $2.20, $4.80 FF ( 4.4 units at $4.80 FF )
9.Supera does look the main danger in a truly run 2000m. She will get back but with a track into it, she is the one Rocky has to hold out.
12.Avantage 1st $2.50 won strongly in a good speed rating over 1600m on an off track. But this is definitely a harder field. The step to 2000m on a Good track,even though she should get a good run from the inside draw, could just be too much to overcome.
2.True Enough has drawn to get a good run and his formline says that he just gives 100% all the time.
The speed map shows Big Mike and Bully Boy sharing an even tempo and all runners suited.
Confidence: 1/5 in an open race
1.Azzuro won the Queensland Cup easily last year over 3200m and has won two other 3200m races and placed in another from 4 starts. The trainers, Ciaron Maher and David Eustace are 2nd in the Australian training premiership with 166 wins, with the best strike rate in the top five of 19.6%. That excellent strike rate is because they place their horses in the right races. And this looks an ideal race for this fella as in handicap he would be carrying 60kgs and giving 4.5kgs at least to the rest. But with the SW+ P conditions, he gets in on 56kgs, giving a maximum away of 2.5kgs. He has drawn out but with jason Wadell up, he will have done his homework and give him the right run to get him home. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF
3.Platinum Invador bolted in with the City Of Auckland Cup and charged home here to almost get up last start with 59kgs. Gets in well at the weights.
8.The Good Fight ran on strongly for third to Platinum Invador and was a bit stiff in the wellington Cup when held up at a vital stage. 3200m suits him well and drawn to do no extra work.
17.Etah James ran home strongly for third here last start in the Avondale cup with 59kgs. She has trained on extra well and drops to 53.5kgs for this.
The speed map shows good early speed with a few looking to go forward and in the big field, an even tempo is likely.
14.Rendition has the best ratings after weight adjustments here after racing well against some better 3yos. Will get back but with a decent tempo likely and the inside likely to be off, she can get to the outside and charge at these late with the lightest weight, RP $4.50, $4.80 FF
3.James Barrie 1st $3.40 is a nice galloper and drawn to lead. If he is not taken on, he will be hard to run down, but he is likely to be looked at so can be vulnerable late.
4.Aqueduct set a good pace last start and was run down late. Gelded since so with his mind on the job, he should be in this from the good draw.
The speed map shows not much speed at all so a moderate tempo likely.
1.Vineyard McPhee rates clearly on top here based on his FR99 last start in a field of race winners. Negative is he may get back on the inner and with no pace. Rosie Myers is a clever rider though so she may make a midrace move or hunt him out on the inner. RP $2.20, $2.20
4.Otis ran on very well last start for second and will be ready for this.
The speed map shows
8.Mozart’s Mistress won impressively here last start after losing 2 plates. She will lead or sit 2nd outer and even though up in class, has run the sectionals to say she can win in this grade. Very good rider too! RP $3.20, $3.60 FF
5.Bucky drawn well and with in- form rider Lisa Allpress up, should be a good quinella chance.
Open race. In order: 5-7-1-4
The speed map shows five runners going forward which should ensure an even tempo suiting all runners.
7.Top Brass won very well last start beating the smart Lilikoi who won two starts later then ran third to Two Illicit. The speed rating was good and he looked ready to win fresh up after leading all the way in his trial beating home Lilikoi. Drawn to get the right run. RP $2.70, $3.10 FF
3.Nellie Bly is fresh up from the Pitman stable and will be ready to win.
2.Excelleration looked the winner well out last start and drops back to 1200m from a wide draw which is the concern. She will get back and need them to go hard to get over some of these.
The speed map shows Blue On Black leading with Sampson coming across 2nd outer and a moderate tempo likely.
Confidence:1/5 in a race where it is a matter of what do you leave out for the quaddie!
7.Blue On Black won really well at Otaki leading all the way for an easy win giving good weight away. Drops to 53kgs and should get his own way in front and be hard to run down being rock hard fit. RP $$2.80, $3 FF
6.Awesome Al racing strongly and gets in on a winning weight.
4.Hey Tiger will appreciate the better surface.
2.Sergeant Blast should get a nice trail and could do it.
The speed map shows four runners looking to lead or be on it and an even tempo likely.
4.All In Stitches has been rating strongly and with a good ride, has to be the one to beat. RP $4
3.La Souer drops back in class and when right, is a good staying mare.
8.Hypatia has improved at her two runs back nicely. She ran a very good third here last December.
1.I Am A Craftsman won well last start and very fit now.
The speed map shows Shadow Fox getting a moderate lead.
4.More Wonder is racing in career best form and did very well last start. He is rock hard fit and if Johnson can settle him in the trail, he will be very hard to beat. Rp $3.00 $3.20 FF
7.Sherrif won really well fresh up. Smart horse but will be ridden cold in what could turn out to be a sit sprint.
2.Cutting Up Rough just got too far off them last start but ran home well late. Fitter for that and 54kgs is ideal.
The speed map shows Wallaceville and La Landone sharing an even pace.
10.La Landonne is a tough mare and just needs to get away evenly to be able to work to the lead or be second outer, and from there, be hard to run down. RP $4, $5 FF
2.Ozil is ready to improve on his strong 4th last start and 1600m suits.
11.Relda drawn to get a good run and be right in it.
6.Vroom won well at Gisborne and drawn well.