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Wednesday preview below

Update race 6

Money is strong for Markus but he is sweating up quite a lot which he didn’t do in his first two starts. He will get back and rely on a decent tempo so he really is a lay at $1.74. 6.Its So Easy looks fit and ready and should get a good run on the pace. Markus was too good in the end. Not a bad day with Terracotta and Get Hitched, the two sectional specials, that made it a good day.

Update Race 5 1.Master Painton looks very fit and healthy. At times, he can be a bit reluctant to get onto the track but he was keen to get out there and do his thing this time.

Update: race 4 4.Terracotta is ready to win – we just need a decent tempo on so she can get over them late. Thanks to our track walker, she got to the best part of the track and defied a moderate tempo.

Update: race 3 tricky race- Oneroa eachway if you want a bet.

Update race 2

Jamie Richards sounds very confident with Get Hitched who has been strongly backed in. Opie just needs to get her out and balanced and there looks to be good speed to allow him to do that. Very hard to beat based on her trial splits. Good ride and even gooder win!

Update race 1

2.Son Of Bielski looks very fit and focused and has been thumped on FF and Betfair. Mannies Power looks very fit and should lead and beat Danger Dee head to head. Well that was not the result we wanted with Danger Dee being too strong over the last 100 metres. Back for race 2 where Get Hitched has been the best backed runner all day.

Update 11.19 a.m. No Quality bets – back again just before race 1 with the Birdcage Bully.

Head to Heads

Race 1 Mannies Power $1.65 to beat Danger Dee MP should lead or trail the favoutite with DD likely to be 4th outer and is just not going as well as MP, who gets a weight advantage as well.

Recommended multi with Race 4 4.Terracotta $2.80 FF.   $10 returns $46.20

Recommended Pick 6 ($20k Guaranteed)  bet for 10% for $8

R1   2
R2    10
R3    1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
R4    4
R5    1, 2, 4, 10
R6    2, 3, 6, 8, 9

Good morning,

No Quality bets so far today.

Update 8.32 a.m. from our Track Walker: ‘ The inside 2-3 metres is used ground and outside that area looks better. So it may suit swoopers ( after a couple of races) coming down the centre of the track or at least 3-4 out.”

The Track is a Dead 5 and there is rain forecast for 4pm on . The rail is out 4 metres. Last meeting here it was True and the meeting before that it was out the same 4 metres on a dead track and played fairly with winners coming from the front and the back and winning near the rail and further out. I’ll post an update by noon with any Head to Head bets and live updates about two minutes before each race.

You can also enter the Tauranga Punters Club here ( $10 units turned into $60 at the last one here ) and the Palmerston North $25k ( probably a lot more)  terminating Pick 6 next Monday here.

Bet of the day Race 1 2.Son Of Bielski $1.70 FF

Value bet of the day Race 5 1.Master Painton $5.50 FF

Sectional Special Race 4 4 Terracotta $3.00 FF

Multi of the day Race 1 2.Son Of Bielski $1.70 FF and race 2 10.Get Hitched $2.70 FF $10 returns $45.90

Race 1

 The speed map shows Mannies Power likely to hunt out and lead with Son Of Bielski looking to get across 2nd outer without doing too much. Danger Dee can jump and get the 1×1. Ludus can drop into the trail. The others are likely to drop behind these from wider  draws. A moderate tempo likely suiting on pace runners.

Confidence:3/5

2.Son Of Bielski  has the strongest recent form with his 2nd here last start behind Our Alley Cat in the best speed rating of the day and an FR ( Formpro Rating) of 101, 3 lengths better than anything else rated in their last two starts. On debut, he sat 2nd outer and easily won in better time than the R72 race by 8 lengths.  He should be able to slide over 2nd outer or even lead if allowed. With no midrace pressure likely, he should get the race run to suit and looks the obvious one. His action says a Dead to slow track is fine. RP $1.80, $1.70 FF

Dangers:

4.Mannie’s Power won here in January on a dead 4 track leading early then 2nd outer on a good tempo and held on very well. Her only other win came here on a slow track over 1200m on a Slow track. Last start she settled 7th outer, improved wide and found the line strongly in a slightly stronger R65. She looks the only one capable of beating Son Of Bielski if he is not on his game. She is fit, should lead and has an ideal action for a Dead to slow track. RP $5, $6.50 FF

5.Ludus won at Te Aroha over 1600m in a weaker maiden and ran on ok  from near last at Ellerslie in a stronger R65 field after snagging from a wide draw. In her recent trial she began well, eased to last and ran on nicely for 4th without being pushed. She is best suited to 1600m and a better pace and hard to see her outsprinting the above two in a sit sprint. RP $7, $4 FF

Race 2

The speed map shows the three on the inside hunting out to lead or be on it and Let Me Tell Ya out wider, crossing over 2nd outer or 1×1. A moderate tempo is likely with runners likely to slot into position fairly quickly, so a moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half.

Confidence: 3/5 Close 

10.Get Hitched  had three races in Oz for no placings in maidens then ran a distant third in a weak 4 horse field when paying  $2.60. In her recent trial she began a bit tardily,6th inner, out 700, wider turn and ran home strongly to win easing down. Her heat time was 60.54 ( not the 59.53 official time) and her last 400m was 22.27 and first 600m in 38.27. Lilikoi, a very good filly, trialled earlier over the same distance and ran her last 400m in 23.09, off only a slightly slower personal time. So they were very good sectionals and splits  compared to Greedy. She maps to land 3 back inner behind a moderate tempo and based on that last trial, she has the ability to win it. Opie rode her in that trial win, and he would have had the choice of Greedy and her, so going for her, is a strong lead. Her action says a dead track is fine. RP $2.30, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

13.Greedy  is very well bred and gallops like she will win a few races. In her first trial  last may she showed good early speed to lead and fought well for second. After a break she trailed at Avondale recently and bounced well to lead, trailed relaxing well, led 200m and was run down late fighting well to stablemate, Mai Tai, who looks good. Her sectionals compared to race rival get Hitched were first 600m in 38.34 and last 400m in 23.03, and time of 61.37 so  Drawn to lead or trail and is ready to fire on debut. RP $4, $5.50 FF

It is hard to see any of the others troubling the above two.

2 Sahalainn disappointed fresh up after looking good earlier. Will get back and with a moderate tempo likely, hard to see him getting over the above two. 5.The Last Word  got a soft lead last start over 1000m and was run down late. She has had plenty of chances and would need the top two to have a bad day to win.

Race 3

The Speed map shows Oneroa likely to hunt out and like she did in her trial sit 2nd outer and lead one off, led 400m and was headed 150 out but came back late with a bit in hand. Third fastest 800m trial and looks a nice galloper. At least an even tempo likely suiting runners with cosy runs or off the pace.

Confidence: 1/5 in a tricky race

7.Oneroa showed good early speed to dispute the pace outer and just go down with a bit in hand. Drawn the inside and can lead or trail and be hard to beat on debut from the Baker/Forsman stable. RP $4.00, $5 FF

Dangers:

4.Autobahn  looked good leading in his recent trial, relishing his work and beating home next up smart winner Pazienza. She could lead these a merry chase if she can lead.

5.Safe Passage in her trial settled 4th 3 wide open , improved wide 600m out and kept up a strong gallop. Sectional splits were ( the same day as the race 2 trials)  were First 600m 38.11, Last 400m 22.90, time 61.01. Did it wide all the way so it wasn’t a bad effort. Drawn out which probably means she will have to snag and rely on a decent tempo to win.

8.True Blessing  did very well in her last trial when getting back and finishing nicely wide out for second. Likely to be near last but if they go hard, can get into it.

Other thoughts: 

6.Victorem showed good speed in her trial to lead and after being ridden up responded well to win nicely. Drawn awkwardly here so may have to snag and rely on a decent tempo.

3.Semper Fi  in his trial did well when drawing wide, began ok, sat 5 wide near the pace and kept up a strong gallop for third. Drawn 2 here and should get every chance.

2.Bo Jackson from an inside draw, led in his trial and won well under a ride down the straight. Drawing out makes it tough.

Race 4

The speed map shows Mr Fox likely to lead from the inside draw. Most have early pace so depending on how they jump may determine where they land. An even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Terracotta two starts back was an unlucky 2nd when she got back and flew late and the third and fifth horses won next up. Then last start she drew wide and snagged back. She travelled well to the turn behind an even tempo, but was held up till about 200m out and flew late running her last 600m in 33.20 and last 200m in 11.23., in the best speed rating all day and the y were the fastest closing sectionals all day. So we know she can win at least a maiden and probably more. The negative is the wide draw but there looks to be an even tempo and the smallish field will help if Danielle decides to snag, depending on how she jumps. Her action is better suited to a Dead to Good track. RP $2.80, $3.40 Ff

Dangers:

9.Mai Tai in her recent trial began ok, settled 5th middle, and once out, drove hard to win strongly beating Greedy, who is in race 2, so we will get a gauge on her form better after that race. She has drawn well and looks a nice galloper. A Dead track is ok.

5.Fonts de L’Algar is a nice looking galloper and looked good charging home here for 6th beating race rival Super Sid. Ran a good second fresh up and just needs a good run to be right in this.

3.Super Sid on debut went out favourite on debut but drew wide, began awkwardly,  raced keenly and battled on ok for 8th – he was outfinished by race rival Fonts de L’Algar. In his recent trial drew the ace, jumped well, but raced keenly again. Settled better 700m out and was never let go for a good 4th. He does race keenly – but he has the Norton bit going on which can help them race better, but it  makes it hard to back him with great confidence.

Race 5

The speed map shows Joe Cargo leading with early speed from out wider. An even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Master Painton has kept on improving since his impressive win at Ellerslie over 1500m in the strong Dunstan Feeds final  coming from well back in a fast run race to get up late. His last two run in open handicaps have been very good rating FRs 108 and 106. Stephen Autridge is a very good trainer and he has dropped him back to an R72 race and put the capable 4kg claimer on Mubs Kareem. He maps to get back and with an even tempo likely, he just needs to get a track into it on the right horse, maybe Hasabro, and he can win. He rate 3 lengths clear on top in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments. RP $4.50

Dangers:

4.Sahar is racing as though he needs a middle distance now and Opie sticks with him. Drawn to get a good run. He’s well bred and is a half brother to the smart Rondinella.

2.Vichy won well at Ellerslie over 1600m in this grade in good time. Then she ran on well last start at Tauherenikau for third although she had her chance. Maybe she needs more ground now. In her only start over a middle distance it was here where she got too far back, was forced to come very wide and found the line the strongest of all runners for fifth.  She maps to get out and get a good spot early then ease to 5th or 6th outer and get her chance. The negatives are it is her first run for 34 days and she steps to 2000m for the first time this campaign in a truly run race against in-form race fit horses who have solid form over middle distances- so the $3.20 is too short.

10.Dam Reliable  got a well deserved win last start. Very fit now.

Race 6

The speed map shows Full Of Promises, Its So Easy and Landry ( may snag today)

2.Markus Aurelius on debut here over 1200m got back from a wide draw and finished strongly for second and the third horse won soon after. Then second up he got back again on the tighter Wairoa track, and unwound late to get third and was in front soon after,. That was over 1350m so the 1400m looks ideal third up. His action suggest he should handle a Dead to slow track. Rain is forcast late afternoon. I’m not sure if it was the tighter track or the rain on the day that hampered him but he does look like a nice horse in the right race now. RP $2.60, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

6.Its So Easy  ran a good 2nd left handed at Taranaki  behind Rock In The Park  who won well next up. Then she just battled right handed at her next two runs from good runs. Maybe back left handed, with a nose band going on and from a good draw, could make all the difference.

8.Catwalk Girl looked good winning her trial here leading all the way. Then on debut she missed the jump, worked hard to get 2nd outer and battled on ok considering how much she worked early. Back this way round should help along with the extra 200m.

3.Landry  ran two solid placings and last start led and weakened. He may be ridden colder today to allow him to settle and get over them.

9.Full Of Promise  in her recent trial drew wide, showed good speed to get up 2nd outer, but was outfinished easily for third. Nicely bred and should be on the pace for a good while.

10.Lalone in her trial drew well, settled back and ran on ok for fourth. Looks like she will be better over 1600m plus.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!