Home » Results » Saturday 14 March preview below

Saturday 14 March preview below

Race 9 $1620 win on 1.Equinox to return $6318 and money back. No Payout. Thanks for joining in.

Race 8 $180 win 2.Rocking Along at $7 FF

Race 7 3.Pop Star Princess $6450 win at $3.30 FF  Go Poppy! Buga- bob just didn’t go our way. $1800 left.

Race 6 9.Speechmaker $500 win at $9.50 FF Crikey that was good to watch! Certainly due! $4750 returned. Balance now $8250

Race 5 4.Arraignment $500 @ $4.80 FF missed $4000 left

Race 4 $1210 win 7.Le Sablier at $3.70 FF 2nd = Closing Balance $4,500

Race 3 $600 win 4.Merlini at $5.50 FF Missed – balance $5710

Update 12.59 p.m. We have around $2,500 from the on course pool, along with our $3810 = $6310 but I will finalise that as soon as admin lets me know. We will go to Race 9 if funds allow.

Next update just before race 3 at Tauranga for the Punters Club bets

Update 10.55 a.m. : No head to heads

Suggested Melbourne quaddie for $14.30 for 10%

R6    1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13
R7    9
R8     2
R9     2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17, 18

If you are in the Tauranga Punters Club please check here for the final balance etc

The first bet will be placed on race 3 and posted on this page. Smallish fields and I’ll be having a good look at them in the birdcage, so updates will be posted fairly close to race time.

Update 8 a.m. Saturday

Good morning,

If you are in the Tauranga Punters Club Syndicate I’ll post an update of all unit holders by 11 a.m. Just a reminder if you didn’t specify which syndicates ( Punters Club or Pick 6 on Monday) it all goes into the Punters Club today. two Quality bets: Pop Star Princess and Melody Belle

Bet of the Day Tauranga Race 7 3.Pop Star Princess $3.60 2nd 

Value bet of the Day Caulfield Race 7 9.Melody Belle $3.80 ( Was $4.50 when posted on Friday )  3rd 

Speed Map Special Trentham race 4 6.Coventina Bay $1.85 Ff 1st $1.80 

Sneaky bet of the day Trentham Race 9 4.Communique $9 and $2.60 first four Missed

Update 12.15 p.m. Friday: Tauranga and Trentham preview below- no further Quality bets but there may be at 6 p.m.. Next update at 6 p.m.

Two Quality bets for the weekend so far detailed below. Next update by 1 p.m.

Heads Up can be seen here with the GOAT and I reviewing last week, previewing the Oaks, plus you have the chance to win a $20 multi.

Poss won last week’s Multi and has Melody Belle to win and Souths -5.5 to return $162.80

The Goats best sports bet of the week is South Sydney -5.5 at $1.85 at 7.30 p.m. Saturday night.

Tauranga

Race 7

The speed map shows Pop Star Princess leading with Go Nicholas and No Loitering tracking her.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 3.2 units at the current $4 but will be $3.80 after deductions 

3.Pop Star Princess rated a career best Formpro Rating of 112  last start when a close second to Supera over 1400m and she franked hat running a top race in the Bonecrusher last week. She maps to lead these early as she pings the gates and I can’t see anything wanting to try and take the lead off her. So she is very likely to get her own way out in front and being at her peak, she can kick on these and prove very hard to run down.  Trainer Fred Cornege told us, ” I was just remarking to my rider ( Lynsey Satherley) I think we have got as well as we have ever had her.” RP $2.40, $3.80 FF ( Currently showing $4Ff but Mont Ventoux is very likely to scratch which means a 5% deduction on PSP’s price) 3.2 units at $3.80 with the Value Staking plan

Caulfield

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 3.3 units at $4.50 FF 

9.Melody Belle looks very well placed here to take this out. She has definitely improved off that last start third ( Jamie Richards said her trackwork shows she is spot on for this) which has proved to be good form and with an off track, that will play right into her hands. Plus the barrier is ideal to get a winning run and with Alligator Blood having a gut buster last start, she will be placed just behind him and be able to get over him in the last 100 metres. RP $2.70, $4.50 FF ( 3.3 units at $4.50 FF )

Tauranga 

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5 in a tricky race

1.Snip has run two solid seconds. Goes well fresh and should get the trail and be the one to beat. RP $4, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Happy Ego  won his recent trial well and with a good run, is the one to keep out late.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

5.Aratai two nice runs over 1200m and 1400m from a good draw looks ideal now. Blinkers go on. RP $4

Dangers:

3.Metro Winner 1st $2.10 ran on well on debut and 1400m suits better now.

Race 3

The speed map shows Merlini, Donna Anne Billy and Air centre looking to lead or be on it. Raposa Rapida should be able to get into the trail and Acutus 3 back inner. An even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Pierina has been rating strongly in better fields. She won at Ellerslie over 1400m getting back and showing a rare turn of foot to storm over them running 11.54 for her last 200m in a good speed rating. Then she ran a solid 6th to Julius at Te Rapa. Then she found the line hard late in Group 2 Rich Hill Mile. She has been freshened up and looks nicely placed here to settle about 6th or 7th behind an even tempo, which will allow her to use her fast late sprint to good effect. She rates on top after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings. RP $4.20, $5.50 Ff and a good one to watch out for in the birdcage.

Dangers:

6.Acutus  1st $3.20 won well here in a weaker field and battled on well for fourth at Ellerslie when they buttoned off midrace which didn’t suit. He won very well here two back with 58kgs and had 59 last start. He drops to 54kgs with the allowance so he will notice that. Maps to get a good run behind an even tempo, and looks the main danger.

4.Merlini keeps doing enough to keep you interested but hasn’t won since he was fresh up in November 2018. he will be fitter after those two runs though and if he can get a soft lead with Donna sitting outside him and not taking him on, he could prove hard to catch. One to look at in the birdcage.

3.Raposa Rapida, stablemate of Pierina, maps to get a good run behind Merlini. As long as he doesn’t come back on her, he should be able to get out early and be in this, but he may find his stablemate too fast late.

 

Race 4

The speed map shows Tweddle Dee and Iron Eagle leading out and a moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

7.Le Sablier 2nd= almost beat Nasha Riva here two starts back and ran a strong second at Ellerslie last Saturday in a good speed rating after that. They meet again with Le Sablier getting a 0.5kg advantage and also has that recent race under her belt and Nasha Riva hasn’t raced since that last win here, 37 days ago. She is up in class but gets in on 53kgs. Being a small mare, she will definitely notice that lighter weight which is the lightest she has ever carried. After looking at the last two times they met, Le Sablier has jumped better than her then snagged. If she can jump like that again, she can get into the trail, which would be a winning move with her fitness and slight weight advantage. RP $3.20 FF, $4 FF

Dangers:

5.Nasha Riva just held on to beat Le Sablier here last start. Has had a 37 day break since then which is a query and is likely to land 3 back inner chasing Le Sablier.

4.Iron Eagle  worked into the 1×1 last start and won well. Likely to slide over and land 2nd outer and be right in it, but gives 4kgs to le Sablier which could make the difference late.

1.Imelda Mary trialled like she needed one or two runs to strike form as she did last campaign.

Race 5

The speed maps shows Honneur Noir, Griffin and Monaco going forward

8.Aileen Grace won very well here four starts back over 1400m  beating nasha Riva easily who has gone on to good form. Then next start was an unlucky fourth over 1600m. Then, back a more suitable 1400m finished a close fourth with 56kgs. Last start in a strong R72 she drew wide, snagged and  ran on well for 8th over 1600m. She has been freshened up and Ross McCarroll, who places his horses so well, gets her in on 53.5kgs.. She maps to land about 5th or  6th inner behind an even tempo and with that light weight advantage, she can get over these. Trainer Ross McCarroll told us, ” She has freshened up nicely. I’d like a little rain for her. She should go a good race.” RP $4

Dangers:

4.Arraignment  has been racing in Australia in harder fields. he has led all the way here before over 1600m and had a nice quiet trial recently. One to watch in the birdcage.

1.Griffin things went wrong fresh up. Drawn to get a good run on pace.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

7.The Helix  won fresh up over 1400m fresh up January last year. The way he ran home for third in his recent trial, shows he is ready to fire up fresh again. Gets 3kgs off and if they go hard, which is possible, he could swamp these late at good odds. RP $10, $26 FF

Dangers:

2.Victory Glory  fought on well for 4th in a stronger maiden at Ellerslie last start. gets 2kgs off and with a good run from the wide draw, should be right in it.

4.Call Me Evie  goes well here but has had a few weeks off. Trainer Bob Pomare told us, ” She is a tough mare who really tries her heart out. She is likely to need the run here but you can never count her out.”

9.Speechmaker 1st $9 and looked very well  led all the way, just about, fresh up. He is a strong fella and will have improved with that and he has won second up.

 

Race 7

The speed map shows Pop Star Princess leading with Go Nicholas and No Loitering

Confidence: 3/5

3.Pop Star Princess 2nd – had every chance  rated a career best Formpro Rating of 112  last start when a close second to Supera over 1400m and she franked hat running a top race in the Bonecrusher last week. She maps to lead these early as she pings the gates and I can’t see anything wanting to try and take the lead off her. So she is very likely to get her own way out in front and being at her peak, she can kick on these and prove very hard to run down.  Trainer Fred Cornege told us, ” I was just remarking to my rider ( Lynsey Satherley) I think we have got as well as we have ever had her.” RP $2.40, $3.80 FF ( Currently showing $4Ff but Mont Ventoux is very likely to scratch which means a 5% deduction on PSP’s price) 3.2 units at $3.80 with the Value Staking plan

Dangers:

1.Go Nicholas 1st $4.90  in his last four campaigns has run 7th, 3rd, 5th and 6th at his fresh up run. He trialled well but at 8yo, he is unlikely to change that fresh up pattern.

2.Polly Grey  did little fresh up and her best form is on slow or worse tracks.

5.Hypnos  has been freshened up and goes well that way. Tempo may be against though.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

9.Beyond Sacred nice third on debut and very well bred. 1600m will suit. RP $4.50, $5

Dangers:

2.Rocking Along good third last start and drawn to get a good run.

10.Elephant 1st $8  nicely bred and won his trial well

3.Tarwyn  fitter now third up and gets 2kgs off.

Race 9

The speed map shows at least 6 runners looking to lead or be on it ensuring a fast early speed and at least an even one once settled.

Confidence:3/5

1.Equinox showed very good ability last campaign. He has won three races, with two of those fresh up. He has been gelded which looks to have him really focused now as he trialled really well at Te Teko recently when 5th outer, challeged on the turn cruising and was headed by the good horse Blood Warrior. But he came back and beat him without being asked for a top effort. His action says he needs a Dead 4 or better track and he gets that here. From the inside draw, Chelsea should be able to land in the trail on an even tempo. The gaps should open for him to get out and be hard to beat from there. RP $2.80, $4 FF The money for either stablemate could give us a lead.

Dangers:

3.Phantom Witness has looked good in his trials and wins. He looked more professional last start too when eased from a 3 wide position, settled better and was too fast for Virtuoso lad who won at Ellerslie next up running fast closing sectionals. Drawn 6 and if he can settle around 6th outer, he looks better chasing others down, so look the obvious danger to Equinox.

Race 10

Confidence:1/5

3.Our Beeskees won strongly two starts back at Te Teko in better time than the R65 and R72 races. Then he backed up 19 days later at Ellerslie, drew wide, was caught wide round the first bend and had nothing to offer 200m out. That was a stronger field and he may still have been feeling the effects of that hard Te Teko win.  With a freshener, from the inside draw, he can get a cosy run on the rail and if he can reproduce that Te Teko effort, he will be hard to keep out. RP $4.50, $6 Ff

Dangers:

2.You’re Welcome hung left handed last start so may be better this way round from the Jamie Richards stable.

6.Hakuna Matata won very well last start on the pace with an ideal staying action. Nice weight and just needs luck in the running from that wider draw.

9.Savastep  steps up in distance and with a good run, should be in it.

Trentham

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

5.Very Appealing last campaign bolted in leading all the way at Awapuni. Fresh up this campaign, he got back and ran on nicely in an Open handicap. Drops in class and maps to lead if he wants it and if he can stack them, he could be the one to hold out the favourite. RP $5, $6.50Ff

Dangers:

6.Star Tsar 2nd and could be laid at  $2 won really well at Ellerslie last start in a very good speed rating. After reviewing the race, he definitely looks he would be better suited to 2000m now and with the blinkers on. He maps to be back on the inner off a moderate tempo, so those negatives makes it hard to take the $1.90 FF

3.That’s Incranibull  won well here two back and probably needed the run last start. Drawn to get a good run.

Race 2

Confidence:2/5

4.Wicket Maiden 1st $5  won strongly here on debut and ran on ok at Matamata on a wet track. Drawn to get a good run here and can bounce back. RP $4, $4.40 Ff

Dangers:

3.Sacred Command is a very nice looking galloper and will be improved with that close 2nd on debut. Wide draw no help though.

1.Opalescence  if she can cross and lead will be hard to run drawn but drawn to get beaten.- and was caught wide 

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

4.Sergeant Blast 1st $3.70 won easily here last week and should get a soft run on the pace again. RP $4.50

Dangers:

1.Glory Days  will be fitter and will relish the extra distance now.

5.Te Akau Caliburn  will also relish the extra ground.

Race 4

Confidence; 3/5

6.Coventina Bay 1st $1.90 is a very good mare and is in top form. She can unleash fast sectionals and looks hard to beat but is no value. RP $2.20, $2.00 FF

Dangers:

3.Credit Manager  is a good horse and drawn to be the main danger.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

5.Sinarahma is a very good mare who should be even better next campaign. She maps to get back with not a lot of tempo so $3.20 is too short- may pay more later. RP $3.50

Dangers:

1.Yearn is a tough mare and drawn to get a winning run on a moderate tempo. RP $4, $3.80 FF

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5 two horse race.

3.Levante 2nd  is a very good filly and has run top closing sectionals. She will get back on the outer and if they are able to win down the middle of the track before this race, she can win alright. But if the on pace runners in even tempo races are winning, Star Of Bombay should be the one to beat. RP $2.70

Dangers:

4.Star Of Bombay won strongly last start at Ellerslie and really tries hard. Drawn to get a good run on the pace and be the one Levante has to run down.

5.Bella Mente  closed off impressively behind Star Of Bombay at Ellerslie and has strengthened up.

10.Our Alley Cat  won impressively in a very good speed rating at Matamata and with a soft mid race sectional, she could be the upsetter.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

3.Sensei  when right, can run some amazing closing sectionals. Maps to get the right run and if they go hard enough, can swamp these. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

5.Wekaforce in great form and if she can cross and lead is the one to run down.

 

Race 8 NZ Oaks

Confidence; 2/5

4.Communique is a well bred filly who has the breeding to say she can stay out a strong 2400 better than most of these. Strong win last start at Ellerslie and top trainer Stephen Autridge will have her cherry ripe to win. Drawn to get a winning run and is very good each way chance. RP $6, $9 FF

Dangers:

1.Jennifer Eccles 1st $1.70  has been very impressive in her last two starts  with big winning margins. The negative is they were slowly run races and the times were slow. The 2400m is going to be run at an even tempo. From her wide draw, she is probably going to snag and look to track into it. So the $1.90 is too short with the extra work she will have to do.

17.Zipitsweetie  is a big staying type filly who has the breeding to see out a well run Oaks. She has been set for this and she has the early pace to work her way over to a handy spot and put the pressure on well out to make  it a true staying test.

2.Loire  is a very strong filly and will be suited by a strongly run 2400m. Drawn out so needs a good ride.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5

6.Semper Magico 2nd closed off too late last start after being late to balance up. Spot on for this and drawn nicely. RP $6, $10 FF

Dangers:

3.Hot Spring Project won well last start and looks like he can cope in this grade from a good draw.

12.On Show is in on a nice weight and with a good run is in this.

9.Fiano  is a nice horse and fresh up could surprise.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!