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Saturday 21 March preview below

Update 11.25

Ho further bets. Suggested quaddie for Tauranga in the $25k bonus. $20 for 100%

R4   1
R5   1, 2, 4, 7, 10
R6    1, 4, 5, 10
R7     7

Good morning,

No Quality bets so far. I have previewed Riccarton as well and three nice eachway bets in Australia. I’ll post an update by noon. Don’t forget we have $1100 to bet on the $10k Terminating Pick 6 on Monday if you are in that Syndicate here

Kevin, who won the $20 multi bet from Heads Up last week, has Vedo Rosso and Birdsong to return $158

 

6 p.m. No further bets

Tauranga

No Quality bets here. Next update by 6 p.m.

Bet of the day Tauranga Race 4 1.Vedo Rosso $3.50 FF

Value bet of the day Tauranga  Race 2 8.Veine D’Or $5.50 Ff

Speed map special Tauranga Race7 7.Birdsong $3.10

Sneaky of the day Tauranga Race 1 4.Sunburst $7.50 1st $6 FF This is a $30 Bonus back offer if he runs 2nd,3rd or 4th on FF betting

The GOAT’s best two sports bets are tonight. Penrith -4.5 $1.90 and SS Rabbitohs H2H $1.80

Race 1

The speed map shows Sunburst likely to look to lead or be close to it and a few others looking to near it. A Moderate to Even tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence:2/5

4.Sunburst 1st $6 drops back to R65 grade with 2kgs off. Last start drew wide so snagged back and ran on nicely. This time, she maps to lead or be close to it, and she looks well placed. RP $5, $7.50

Dangers:

1.Looks Like  bit unlucky last start when held up. Drawn to get all favours.

8.Kiwianna  drawn to land 3 back inner and be in the right spot to get out and be in this.

7.Endean Lass  from the good draw should land closer and that could make all the difference. Strong closing sectionals last start.

Race 2

The speed map shows Honneur Noir and Aretha leading out and an even tempo likely.

Confidence:2/5

8.Veine D’Or  ran a strong second fresh up here then was a bit flat second up at Ellerslie. Back on her favourite track and down in weight, she can get a good run here and be a good eachway chance. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Honneur Noir  worked hard fresh up and tired late. This is easier and she rates strongly here.

1.Aretha is tough and will be vastly improved by that fresh up run.

Race 3

The speed map shows three runners looking to lead and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

7.Pimms ‘N’ Pearls 1st $4 should be stronger now and showed very good form last campaign. Goes well fresh and should either lead or trail and be nice eachway chance from there. RP $4.5, $6 FF

Dangers:

4.Blood Warrior  is a good horse and trialed well recently. Drawn to be caught wide though so $2.90 is too short.

3.Virtuoso Lad  drawn to do nothing 3 or 4 back on the rail. If they go too hard, he could swamp them.

10.Call Me Evie  needed last week’s run. This is harder but ready to win with a good run.

Race 4

The speed map shows good early speed from four runners an an even tempo expected suiting all runners.

Confidence:3/5  First leg of the $25k Bonus quaddie. Vedo Rosso does look a good anchor.

1.Vedo Rosso ran a very good second last start in a career best rating FR100 ( Formpro Rating ) in above average time beating race rival Othoserussions who won here last week. He’s right at his peak for this third up over ground and should get a good run about 5th outer behind an even tempo and be the one to beat with 3kgs off again. RP $2.50, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

7.Petrabella  ran on nicely behind Vedo Rosso last start and with a good ride, looks the main danger.

5.Dawnlight beat a weak maiden field last start and is up in class here. Needs a perfect ride.

Race 5

The speed map shows and even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence:2/5

10.Swords Drawn  a bit stiff last start over 1600m  and is looking for ground now. He has trained on very well according to trainer Shaune Ritchie and looks well placed here. RP $2.70

Dangers:

7.London Banker 1st $2.40 drawn to get a good run and is right at the peak of his form after bolting in last start. Has won here too. RP $3.50, $3.70 FF

1.Mongolian Conqueror  drops back in class and drawn to get his chance.

4.Starrybeel  has disappointed in his last two runs. Could easily bounce back with a peak effort.

2.Bully Boy  rated strongly two starts back at Ellerslie. 3200m didn’t suit last start.

Race 6

The speed map shows The Mitigator leading and setting a moderate tempo suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence:2/5

1.The Mitigator ran a game second to Supera here over 1600m at WFA leading and was run down late off a 6 week break. He has since won the Thorndon Mile and wasn’t suited by the Dead to slow track last start. Should get an uncontested lead which makes him the one to beat despite topweight. RP $3.50, $4

Dangers:

4.Go Nicholas  got up late to win here fresh up last week. He should land close to the pace again and be the main danger.

10.Nasha Riva  will be improved by last weeks run and loves it here.

5.Scott Base 1st $5.90  was beaten by the ground last start. if he can land 3 back inner, he should be close enough to strike at these late.

Race 7

The speed map shows Birdsong leading out and probably getting an uncontested lead as she was determined to lead last start.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Birdsong  won well fresh up and looks good. Drawn to lead these and is unlikely to get taken on so can do it all the way again. RP $2.70, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

5.Katie Perrie  has won here over 1600m on a Good track.

8.Incantesimo  drawn to get a good run which will help. Goes well here.

Riccarton 

Race 1

2.I Am A Rock rates clearly on top here after weight adjustments and maps to get the ideal run. RP $3.50, $5 FF

5.Clooney better run last start and rates well.

Race 2

3.Poniard  ran a strong second last start rating a career best FR 104 ( Formpro Rating) to Lightning Jack, a good horse. Drawn to get a good run and any rain ok. RP $4.50, $5.50

7.Sanctify  was unlucky last start and has the Wonder Boy aboard, Kozzi.

Race 3

8.Stella Creek  looked good winning her two trials. Bred to win a few and gets the draw to beat the favourite. RP $3.50, $4.60 FF

4.Chokito won strongly here two back and did very well 3w on the pace last start. Wide draw is the niggle here though.

Race 4

3.The Lustre  rated a career best FR105 last start and ran a strong second here the start before that. Drawn to get a good run. RP $5, $8 FF

1.Capodanna won easily against a weaker R72 last start. This is harder and drawn to do extra work.

9.Sulu Sea  rated strongly here last start and fitter as well.

Race 5

12.Shock And Awe  rated wll last start just getting beaten. Back in class.

2.Jessie’s Rock won well last start beating Chanceux who was an impressive winner on Thursday.

16.Shaz The Bank  rated well last start and drawn to get a good run.

Race 6

5.Diorisimo could upset fresh up. Looks to be a good tempo and that suits her nicely. RP $7, $13

3.Camino Rocoso  will pull his block off again with Chris Johnson on board  in front but could hold on.

4.Owen Patrick is racing in career best form.

6.Neeson is racing over his ideal distance and with the right run can win again.

Race 7

6.Windsor  will be ready to fire fresh up. Drawn the inside and if he doesn’t get caught under horses pulling his head off, he can win again.

12.Khomar War  is in great form and is a big strong della suited to a driving finish.

10.Turncoat rating very well and drawn well.

Race 8 Valachi Downs SI Breeders Stakes

The speed map shows and even tempo with Ticket To Ride and Xcuses Xcuses sharing an even tempo.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Monza Circuito looks nicely placed here after blundering at the start and got out late for third here after a 6 week break. So she will be spot on for this and drawn to get every chance. Rates on top here after weight adjustments. RP $4.50, $5 FF

Dangers:

6.Quintuple Twins got back off a moderate tempo last start and ran home well. This is tougher but she is a very good mare in the strong parsons stable.

9.Excelleration looked very good winning two back and needed her last run. Very good mare ready to go close.

2.The Precious One is a query over 1600m but drawn to get an economical run.

Race 9

2.Outram  is a good horse and rates well. 1400m is his ideal distance.

1.Augustace  drawn to elad and if the inside is ok, can hold on.

4.O’Guy  debuts in the South and rates on top after weight adjustments.

8.Why Me  had his turn two starts back here and this could be his turn again.

 

Sydney

Race 7 6.30 p.m.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Tagaloa had to be very good to win the Blue Diamond when 3 w on the pace and winning in very good time. Top second last with a strong closing finish. Drawn to get a good run and a solid eachway chance. The better surface will suit as well. RP $4.50, $5 FF

3.Farnan has had the advantage of racing on wet tracks and his action says he needs that to get an edge over the others. Drawn wide so no value at $5

 

Eagle Farm

Race 9 8.30 p.m.

Confidence:2/5

7.Langhro goes well fresh with 2 wins from 4 starts in that state. Ran some top races last campaign and trialed up nicely. Should get a good run on pace and be a solid eachway chance. RP $4.50, $5.50

Morphettville 

Race 7 7.01 p.m.

Confidence:2/5

5.Puissance Dusoleil  got in my Blackbook after her very nice finishing third fresh up. She improved off that nicely to win at even money last start. She is a very nice galloper who is fitter now and is good eachway value at $5 and $1.70

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!