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Sunday preview below

Update 11.30 a.m. With no head to head options up, no further bets.

Tauherenikau

Good morning,

There has been rain about overnight and there is light rain falling there this morning. It should clear this afternoon but it is more likely to be a Dead 5 or 6 by race 1

I’ll post an update by noon. No Quality bets.

Bet of the day race 2 5.Bold Iris $2.60 FF

Value bet of the day Race 6 6.Mondorani $5.50 FF

 

Race 1

The speed map shows Miss Labasa leading out from the inside with Maria Dior 2nd outer and the others tucking in behind. An even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence:2/5 There is a maximum $30 bet on the first two races here with a Bonus back bet if it runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

3.Grand Mayson 1st $3.90 ran a good second last start on a Dead 6 track when they went fast up front. He has won on a heavy track so any rain only increases his chances. Lisa Allpress will give him every chance too and he has race fitness on his side. RP $3.50, $4.20 Ff

Dangers:

5.Miss Labasa  won a recent jumpout at Hastings leading all the way in good time. She bled last campaign. She is a very good mare and from the inside should be able to hold the lead. But her best form is on Dead 4 or better tracks and over 1200m or more, so the $2.00 is too short.

4.Maria Dior should sit outside Miss Labasa and her her race fitness could be the advantage she needs.

 

1.Awatane goes well fresh and if they do go hard, could swamp them late.

Race 2

Confidence:2/5

5.Bold Iris  looked good trailing in her trial, and driving through to lead 200m and held out the smart Blaze Seven who put in a top run on debut at New Plymouth for second. Drawn to get a winning run and the one to beat. His action says a Dead to slow track is ok.RP $2.70, $2.60

Dangers:

3.Balalaika 1st $2.50  ran a good third at Trentham and should be improved by that.

Race 3

The speed map shows Runthiefrun leading and a couple of others sitting on her and an even tempo likely.

Confidence:2/5

2.Runthiefrun ran a solid second on debut but seems better suited to 1000m with his natural speed. Drawn to be able to use it. RP $3.20

Dangers:

6.Miss Falvelon looked good winning her trail and drawn to get every chance.

7.Spydapus also looked good winning her trial but drawing wide over 1000m here doesn’t instill confidence.

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

1.Cage Phyta 1st $2 has looked capable of winning a maiden and gets  his chance here in a weak field. Just needs a good ride and any rain will help. RP $2.60, $2.30 FF

Dangers:

9.Sovereign Express  ran on strongly last start and looks the main danger.

Race 5

The speed map shows early speed from out wider and most kicking up underneath early so a fast early pace then even suiting all runners.

 

Confidence: 2/5

4.Princess Ani  won well two starts back over 1600m. Then last start worked from a wide draw to get 2nd outer and fought well for second over 1550m. She has been freshened up and drops back to 1400m. I like the blinkers going on as when she won at Otaki she looked around quite a bit. She has the early speed to land in the foirst four and from there, be right in this. RP $3.40, $3.20 Ff

Dangers:

5.Carlingford Bay  last start eased back and got a bit keen when they buttoned off, but settled better when more pace went on. She drove hard late when balanced up to beat Magness who won next up. She will likely snag back but with an even tempo she can bide her time at the back and with a track into it, looks the main danger.

6.Happy Tav 1st $9  led all the way last start. She gets 3kgs off here giving her a nice weight advantage and should get a good trip.

2.One Prize One Goal  drops in class and drawn to get a good run.

Race 6

The speed map shows Italian Lover leading with Trending and Zentagle in behind. A moderate tempo likely.

Confidence:1/5

6.Mondorani 2nd after laying in. rates on top here after weight adjustments based on his strong placing at Riccarton. Nice run fresh up at Wairoa over 1500m and the step to 2200m suits and any rain will help. RP $4.50

Dangers:

5.Trending  has been racing well and if he got a soft sit on the lead, could prove hard to peg back.

3.Italian Lover  1st $3 ready now third up with Lisa Allpress up. Any rain will help.

4.Awesome Al goes best here and the blinkers go on.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

3.Dance For Us 1st $5.90  ran a strong fourth on debut when in the 1×1 and fought well for fourth in a good speed rating and the 2nd and 3rd horses have since won. Has the early speed to get handy and gets 2kgs off. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Greystone has run some good placings and strikes a weak field fresh up.

8.Amazing Team  ran on well fresh up and  1400m will suit.

10.Amathusia  won her trial well and should get the right run.

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!