Summary: 3 Winners on top Quick Thinker $2.80, Verry Ellegant $2.20 and Cascadian $6.60 plus 3 winning head to head bets
Update 5.30 p.m. The suggested quaddies for Sydney and Bendigo are below. Funstar looks very hard to beat and should complete a nice multi. No more updates. Going to binge watch Ozark tomorrow on Netflix. An excellent series.
Suggested Sydney quaddie for $32 for 50%
R6 1, 9
R8 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14
R9 2, 3, 8, 14
Suggested Bendigo Quaddie $43.20 for 10%
R6 1, 2, 13, 14
R7 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13, 16, 17
R8 4, 6, 15
R9 3, 5, 12, 14
8.God Of Thunder is worth an eachway bet at very good odds. Has the ideal action for a slog.
The head to head Aliferous $2.30 to beat Maid Of Ore head to head looks the best bet here. She won at Randwick on a similar track last April over 2000m driving home late in the slower inner ground. Maid Of Ore beat a much weaker field in her only wet track form and the ones she beat were all struggling in it anyway. So the $2.30 does look worth taking. The trainer said she was half a run short last week so should be at her peak for this. She is also worth an eachway bet as well. 2nd after given every chance and the H2H was a low stress one with Maid Of Ore not handling it.
Quick Thinker and Zebrowski have the form and galloping actions to handle the wet track better than any of these.
The head to head, Zebrowski $1.55 to beat Pride Of Adelaide looks the best bet. The quinella with Quick Thinker and Zebrowski should pay around $3 and looks worth taking as well. Yes, got out to $1.60 H2H and the quinella $3.90 which drifted out
The multi of the day now is the head to head above with Funstar at $1.80 to return $27.90 for every $10 Half way there
Update 3.14 p.m. 5.Return With Honour has been solid in markets and with the good tempo likely, will get back and come charging home. Good bet. Disappointing run after getting the tempo to suit. That track is our slow 8 to 9.
Update 2.44 Suggested early quaddie for $10.80 for 10%
R3 1, 5
R4 1, 2, 6, 8, 10, 11
R5 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13
Update Race 1
The best value is the head to head with Condor $2.30 to beat Sausedge head to head. Yes – they are kicking up a bit of dirt so the race time and closing 600m will give us a good indication how slow it is. It looked like it was 1.25.6 ( update it was and home in 35.59 )on the infield indicator for the 1400m but they didn’t go hard. The middle of the track seems fine so going in with good confidence with Return With Honour as he is likely to becoming down there or wider.
10.Royal Celebration is a good lay at $4 or less. Tough win.
Next Update by 1 p.m. and I’ll be doing a birdcage bully today where I’ll be posting comments about 2 minutes before the start on which horses will be suited to the going and good bets or even lays.
Update 10.50 a.m. One Quality bet so far 3 units on Race 2 5.Return With Honour at $3.80 Ff
Steve L’s multi from Heads Up last week is Doomben race 5 Royal Witness $2.10 and Rosehill race 2 Return With Honour $3.80 Ff $20 returns $160. Good luck Steve
Rosehill early preview. Next update by noon Saturday after scratchings.
A soft 6 track likely which means around 1.11 to 1.12 for 1200m, but it may or may or may not get more rain.
Bet of the day Race 7 1.Funstar $1.80 FF
Value bet of the day Race 2.5.Return With Honour $4.20 Ff
Speed map Special Rosehill race 3 1.Quick Thinker $2.40 FF 1st $2.60
Sneaky of the day Rosehill race 5 8.God Of Thunder $14
The speed map shows Condor likely to slide to share the lead with Top Prospect. Royal Celebration is in danger of being parked 3 wide in the open.
Confidence: 2/5 where I’m against the two favoured runners.
6.Condor won easily three starts back over 1250m on a Soft 7 track. Then next up he led and was run down late for third over 1400m. Last start in a Group 3 race, he sat 5th behind a solid tempo over 1400m where the winner had a sweet trail and won. He was pushed wide on the turn and fought hard for third. From the draw he should either lead or sit outside it and he has real strength so can fight out a tough finish and beat these. RP $4.20, $5.50 FF
3.Hanger, the ex-Kiwi got back to his best form last start when settling well just behind the speed and driving hard late to win really well. He handles a soft track with ease and maps to get the ideal run about 4th or 5th. Negative is he giving weight to some handy in-form horses but if they go hard, he will coming at these hard late.
7.Top Prospect won strongly fresh up and handles a Soft track with ease. Drawn to get the lead or trail and from there, will be fighting this out. Second up is the only negative.
10.Royal Celebration is too short here and is a good lay at $4 or less. He maps to get caught wide for the first 400m and will have to work to get 2nd outer or snag and his action says a tough slog on a Soft 7 will find him out against others that have good wet track form and good actions for it.
12.Sausedge has his best form on dry tracks. His win on a Soft 6 was in 1.11.13 and his action says he needs it dry to show his best. He’s been backed in and will settle off the pace, so unless they go hard, it is hard to see him beating two or three of these, even with the weight advantage.
The speed map shows Postcode, Holyfield, Untamed leading out from near the inner and a couple out wide going forward too, so a fast early speed and at least even from there suiting an off pace runner.
Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 3 units at $3.80 FF
5.Return with Honour was an impressive winner on debut at Randwick and got back in the Black Opal at Canberra last start over 1200m by design and just couldn’t get clear galloping room and finished full of running. He’s a big striding 2yo suited to a solidly run 1400m and with Hugh Bowman up again, he should get his chance to bury these late. Any rain will be ok. RP $2.50, $3.80 FF
7.I Am Swerving got all favours last start 3 back inner, got out in time and ran on fairly on a 1.13 for 1200m track. He has a good wet track action and third up should be fitter, but I can’t see him holding out Return With Honour if he gets the right run.
6.Time Is Precious got all favours last start over 1200m 3 back inner, challenged at the right time and fought ok for second. 1400m will certainly test her out in a truly run race and hard to see her holding out a charging Return To Honour.
The speed map shows Highmaster, Pride Of Adelaide and Zebrowski likely to share a moderate tempo.
1.Quick Thinker 1st $2.80 ran a very good third to Funstar last start with a gap to fourth on a heavy track and a better soft track is ideal for him. Should get every chance with James up and looks the one. RP $2.20, $2.40 Ff
5.Zebrowski has looked very good in his last two wins. And has a very strong shoulder to fight out a tough finish.
3.Relucent is fourth up off a solid 2nd at Moonee valley last start over 2040m. Waller will have peaked him for this.
6.Pride Of Adelaide was ridden out to win by a margin in a weaker field last in an average speed rating on the soft track. Has a good wet track action but up against a much harder field here so $5 is too short.
The speed map shows four runners looking to lead or be on it so an even tempo likely.
8.Aliferous 2nd $2.10 fought on well fourth last start 1900m and the trainer thought she half a run short for that, so fourth up, off the 7 day back up, on an ideal Soft track, where she maps to get a winning run, she looks well placed. RP $5, $6.50 Ff
1.Life Less Ordinary is the obvious danger and is peaking now.
2.Night’s Watch 1st $7.10 will get back and be charging home. Well placed here but gets beaten too often to back with a lot of confidence though.
11.House Of Cartier has Kiwi ownership and is a chance at very good odds. She handles a soft track well and is nicely weighted.
The speed map shows a fast early pace and could set up for an off pace runner.
8.God Of Thunder won very well fresh up on a soft track and raced too keenly at Flemington last start down the chute and didn’t run on. The rider also said he is better round a bend as well. He is best suited to a fast run race and goes well here ( 2 wins from 3 starts) He has an ideal action for a wet track and drawn out but with a fast tempo likely he can get back with cover and get the last go at them with a light weight at good odds. RP $8, $14
9.Villami won well fresh up leading all the way. Wet track will suit.
1.Kementari is ready to win fresh up but gives good weight away.
The speed map shows Angel Of Truth getting a soft lead and Verry Ellegant settling outside her. A Moderate tempo likely suiting runners on pace.
9.Verry Elleegant 1st $2.20 comes in with the strongest form after two strong seconds in Gr1 races. Second to Te Akau Shark and 2nd to Addeybb after she went too early and was outstayed. This time, she should land 2nd outer or in the 1×1 and is relaxing really well now. At WFA with 56.5kgs, she will be very hard to beat. The only way she can get beaten is if something goes early and makes it into a true staying test then she will be in trouble. A soft track is a plus for her. RP $1.90, $2.00 FF
2.Mustajeer looks good eachway value third up. he is third up and is a tough stayer and handles a wet track well.
1.Avilius was beaten 5L by Verry Elleegant but will be improved by that, but hard to see him beating the mare.
6.Mugatoo is a good horse and in top form and has to be in trifectas.
The speed map shows Shout The Bar leading comfortably and a few looking to get close to her. Funstar should land in the first four in a winning spot. Probabeel likely to be midfield or worse in running.
1.Funstar has the advantage over Probabeel 3-1 and on a wet track it is very likely going to be 4-1. She was pulling away from Probabeel last start and the 2000m will suit ideally now. Top trainer and rider and will get every chance to win. RP $1.70. $1.95 Ff
2.Probabeel will be suited to the 2000m and if the rain stays away. It is hard to see her turning the tables on the very good Funstar.
6.Subpoenaed did very well last start over 1600m coming from last and was a close 5th in strong closing sectionals. A wet track should be ok and the 2000m is a plus as well. gets a decent draw and can settle closer.
5.Asiago won strongly last start and a wet track and 2000m should suit. Good tough filly.
The speed map shows Sweet Deal from the inside leading again but there will be pressure from Amangiri and Positive Peace so an even tempo likely.
10.Amangiri is a top mare who has won a Group 3 race over 1600m at Moonee Valley leading, headed before the turn but showed that real will to win fighting back to win all with a slipped saddle. She will relish a soft track and based on her trial win, she has come back bigger and stronger. She should land on the pace and be hard to run down. RP $5.00
6.Noire ready to peak now after a good third. Drawn to get an ideal run.1
1.Girl Tuesday has won fresh up over 1400m and looked ready to fire up fresh when finishing under a grip in her recent trial.
8.Sweet Deal drawn to lead and it just depends on how much pressure she gets as to whether or not she can hang on.
9.Pohutukawa didn’t like the heavy track last start. The Soft track id ideal for her. She does map to get back and rely on a decent tempo but the trainer is very cofident he has her spot on for this.
3.Cascadian 1st $6.60 is ready to win after top third last start third up. Strong third in Melbourne last campaign and if the inside is off, that will suit as he will get back and be charging home with James up.RP $4, $5.50 FF
2.Star Of The Seas strong win fresh up and 1500m will suit well.
14.Dealmaker good fourth fresh up and 1500m suits ideally.
15.Something Fast is a good horse and will be leading or trailing. If the track improves, he can definitely win.