Having been a part time form analyst for 20 years and full time for the past 14 years, I would say I took into account about 80% of my form analysis when working out which horses to back and 20% on market movements. But more recently that split is now 50/50 and at times up to 100% on market movement. The New Zealand TAB bookies have often said they are guided by what the Betfair market does, and with good reason, especially in Australia. And since we have stopped racing here in New Zealand, those market movements on Australia racing have become even more significant as a factor.
Just yesterday, even on small stake maiden races, the market movements were a very strong indicator of how a horse would perform. I lost count of the number of opening favoured runners who drifted from under $4 to double figures and none of them won! So how do you make money off this strong indicator?
The New Zealand TAB, which we need to use as much as possible to keep the revenue coming in for our great sport, is now offering two head to head options on nearly all gallops races. It is obvious they are using the Betfair price changes to adjust the H2H prices, but at times they are slow to react and you can get some decent value, especially on the higher priced option. For example, an option yesterday was showing $2.30, and over a period of about 30 seconds the price on Betfair tumbled down well below its rival. You could have got on at $2.00 or more for about 60 seconds after that movement dropped to $1.70 and less which proved correct. There were many other examples of runners showing more than $1.60 and dropping significantly in the last three minutes also proving correct. There were a couple that proved incorrect but long term, it is good way of cherry picking the best ones.
There are other ways to use them that I will explain tomorrow for subscribers. Plus, I will be doing live updates for subscribers for Rosehill and Sandown with recommended bets, lays and head to heads. On Saturday, in the live updates, there were three recommended head to head bets and all came in. The best being Aliferous at $2.30 after its rival, Maid Of Ore, looked a good chance to not handle the ground, based on its galloping action. After leading she faded out with Glen Boss confirming afterwards that it just didn’t go in the ground. With another Heavy 8 track forecast for Rosehill tomorrow, I’ll be doing a close examination of the head to head and favoured runners actions to see if we can find some other good bets.
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